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Mortgage Today (PM) - 02/03/26

Week In Review
February 3, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 02/03/2026 President Trump's housing policy stance is creating mixed signals in mortgage markets today. He declared his administration will prioritize keeping home prices high while seeking to make homeownership more accessible, arguing that rising property values represent crucial household wealth that shouldn't be eroded. This balancing act between maintaining homeowner equity and improving affordability presents challenges for mortgage originators navigating client expectations. HUD announced sweeping citizenship verification requirements for nearly 200,000 public housing tenants nationwide. Housing authorities must complete eligibility checks within 30 days or face federal sanctions, following an audit that identified approximately 25,000 deceased tenants and 6,000 potentially ineligible residents. This enforcement action stems from the Trump administration's "American Housing Programs for American Citizens" initiative launched in March 2025. The former Sprout Mortgage CEO's wife has launched a new lending company amid ongoing bankruptcy proceedings. Elizabeth Strauss founded Investor Funding Corp. in California, licensed in four states with three employees including a former Sprout servicing executive. While Michael Strauss shows no formal involvement, this development highlights continued industry consolidation challenges. A Florida federal judge denied a flat-fee broker's attempt to force NAR and MLSs to enforce their own commission rules. Jorge Zea of SnapFlatFee.com failed to meet procedural deadlines in his challenge against alleged coordination to protect traditional commission structures. The ruling blocks early efforts to address buyer agent steering practices that harm alternative brokerage models. Trump unveiled Project Vault, a $12 billion strategic stockpile of critical minerals to reduce Chinese supply dependencies. The initiative combines $10 billion in Export-Import Bank financing with $1.7 billion in private capital to store rare earths, gallium, and cobalt used in electronics and batteries. This represents the bank's largest deal ever, more than doubling their previous record. Locking vs Floating Markets showed mixed behavior today with MBS outperforming Treasuries despite sideways movement. The 10-year yield recovered from earlier weakness to close near 4.27%, while UMBS securities posted modest gains. Wednesday's ISM Services and ADP employment data become critical focal points given government shutdown delays affecting other key reports. Today's Events ISM Manufacturing Employment (Jan): 48.1 vs 44.9 previous ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan): 52.6 vs 48.5 forecast, 47.9 previous ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid (Jan): 59.0 vs 60.5 forecast, 58.5 previous Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.83 | 0.08 | | 5.5 | 101.34 | 0.07 | | 6.0 | 102.4 | 0.04 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.89 | 0.07 | | 5.5 | 101.1 | 0.07 | | 6.0 | 102.2 | 0.03 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.569 | 99.869 | -0.003 | | 3 yr | 3.643 | 99.596 | -0.001 | | 5 yr | 3.831 | 99.636 | -0.006 | | 7 yr | 4.043 | 99.743 | -0.013 | | 10 yr | 4.263 | 97.877 | -0.018 | | 30 yr | 4.895 | 95.782 | -0.017 | Market Data

Mortgage Today (AM) - 02/03/26

Week In Review
February 3, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 02/03/2026 Housing market headwinds intensified in December as more than 40,000 signed purchase agreements were canceled. This 16.3% cancellation rate marks a sharp increase from 14.9% the previous December, signaling buyer selectivity in today's challenging market. Home sellers now outnumber buyers by a record margin, giving remaining buyers more options and negotiating power. Manufacturing showed surprising strength in January despite broader economic concerns. The ISM Manufacturing Index jumped to 52.6, marking the first expansion reading after 26 consecutive months of contraction. New orders surged dramatically, though employment remains in contraction territory as companies continue managing headcount carefully. Government shutdown chaos disrupted key economic data releases that mortgage originators rely on for rate direction. Friday's critical jobs report has been postponed indefinitely, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics confirming no release until government funding resumes. The Senate passed a funding measure, but House disagreements over ICE policies and voter ID requirements continue blocking resolution. MBS markets showed modest resilience despite Treasury weakness this morning. UMBS securities gained 3-4 ticks while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.282%. This outperformance suggests mortgage-backed securities may provide better relative value as economic uncertainty persists. Locking vs Floating Economic data surprises like today's strong ISM Manufacturing reading can trigger immediate rate volatility. With major reports delayed due to the shutdown, Wednesday's ISM Services and ADP data become critical market movers. Current sideways Treasury movement suggests cautious floating for longer-term locks, but near-term closings should consider protection given data uncertainty. Today's Events ISM Manufacturing Employment (Jan): 48.1 vs 44.9 previous ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan): 52.6 vs 48.5 forecast, 47.9 previous ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid (Jan): 59.0 vs 60.5 forecast, 58.5 previous Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.78 | 0.03 | | 5.5 | 101.31 | 0.04 | | 6.0 | 102.39 | 0.03 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.87 | 0.05 | | 5.5 | 101.08 | 0.06 | | 6.0 | 102.26 | 0.08 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.576 | 99.855 | 0 | | 3 yr | 3.651 | 99.574 | 0.006 | | 5 yr | 3.843 | 99.582 | 0.004 | | 7 yr | 4.058 | 99.648 | 0.002 | | 10 yr | 4.282 | 97.726 | 0.001 | | 30 yr | 4.913 | 95.5 | 0.002 | Market Data

Mortgage Today (PM) - 01/29/26

Week In Review
January 29, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 01/29/2026 Bond markets ended little-changed today as Treasury yields held near recent levels despite minor economic data releases. The 10-year Treasury closed down 1.4 basis points at 4.228%, providing modest relief after yesterday's selling pressure. MBS securities remained roughly unchanged throughout the session, showing resilience against broader market volatility. Weekly jobless claims came in slightly above expectations at 209,000 versus the 205,000 forecast, though continuing claims fell to 1.827 million from the previous 1.849 million. The mixed labor data reflects ongoing uncertainty in employment trends as the economy navigates post-Fed decision dynamics. Markets showed minimal reaction to these figures, suggesting traders are focused on bigger-picture developments. A mysterious mini-sell-off occurred during morning hours with MBS dropping an eighth and 10-year yields rising over one basis point before leveling off. The afternoon session saw Treasuries recover to stronger levels with no clear catalyst for the earlier weakness. The 7-year Treasury auction at 1:09 PM generated no market reaction, indicating steady demand for government debt. UMBS securities showed slight weakness across coupons with the 5.0, 5.5, and 6.0 coupons all declining between 4-6 basis points. GNMA securities fared better with the 6.0 coupon actually gaining 18 basis points while lower coupons remained stable. This divergence highlights the complex dynamics in mortgage-backed securities pricing during periods of market consolidation. Locking vs Floating Mortgage rates face significant constraints on further declines given current market conditions. GSE MBS purchases provide some protection against Treasury sell-offs, but the lower limit of the mortgage rate range was established in early January. Meaningful rate improvements will require either substantial bond market selling to create entry points for buyers or legitimate deterioration in major economic indicators, with no significant data releases scheduled until February's first week. For originators, this environment suggests limited opportunities for rate improvements in the near term. Consider locking deals that can close within the next two weeks given the lack of catalysts for meaningful rate declines. Today's Events - Continued Claims (Jan 17): 1,827K vs 1860K forecast, 1849K previous - Jobless Claims (Jan 24): 209K vs 205K forecast, 200K previous Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 100.05 | -0.06 | | 5.5 | 101.43 | -0.04 | | 6.0 | 102.38 | -0.04 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 100.05 | 0 | | 5.5 | 101.11 | -0.01 | | 6.0 | 102.33 | 0.18 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.559 | 99.887 | -0.012 | | 3 yr | 3.629 | 99.637 | -0.013 | | 5 yr | 3.817 | 99.135 | -0.014 | | 7 yr | 3.981 | 98.598 | -0.05 | | 10 yr | 4.236 | 98.09 | -0.009 | | 30 yr | 4.855 | 96.386 | -0.006 | Subscribe free at WellThatMakesSense.com to get this in your inbox daily. Market Data

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Your Brain Is Lying to You Right Now—And It’s Ruining Everything

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