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Mortgage Today (AM) - 04/13/26

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April 13, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 04/13/2026 Oil surging past $100 per barrel after Trump ordered a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz sent bond markets spiraling lower this morning, with the 10-year Treasury yield jumping 3.3 basis points to 4.317% as inflation concerns outweighed softer-than-feared consumer price data. The geopolitical shock followed failed peace negotiations with Iran over the weekend, threatening to worsen an already-strained energy market where 20% of global oil flows through the critical Persian Gulf chokepoint. Brent crude rocketed 7.3% to above $102 per barrel in reaction to Trump's restrictions on vessels calling at Iranian ports, amplifying recession fears and triggering a broad selloff in bonds worldwide. Even with early-morning weakness, Agency mortgage-backed securities steadied near Friday's close as traders digested whether this oil spike represents negotiating leverage or a genuine, sustained inflation driver. The real question for originators remains whether higher crude prices will bleed into broader inflation expectations or fade as temporary, geopolitical noise. March inflation data delivered mixed signals that should have supported bonds, yet they fell anyway. Core consumer prices rose just 0.2% month-over-month—below the 0.3% forecast—suggesting underlying inflation is cooling to multi-month lows. The headline figure jumped 0.9% month-over-month, the sharpest monthly increase since 2022, but this surge was almost entirely attributable to energy prices spiking. Year-over-year, core CPI printed at 2.6% versus a 2.7% forecast, while headline CPI came in right at the expected 3.3%. The problem is that markets care less about what inflation *was* than what inflation *will be* if crude stays expensive, pushing up fuel, food, and transportation costs for everyday consumers. Money markets are now pricing in less than a one-in-five chance of a Fed rate cut by year-end, a stark reversal from cut expectations just weeks ago. The Strait of Hormuz blockade threat has global bond investors spooked because energy shocks historically translate into stagflation—slower growth *and* higher prices simultaneously. Iran has already been selectively blockading the strait since the February attack from the U.S. and Israel, allowing only certain ships through while charging tolls up to $2 million each. Crude exports from Iran rose to 1.9 million barrels per day in March, up 100,000 barrels daily from prior months, but the impact on global supply chains is being felt through higher shipping costs and insurance premiums. At least 22 vessels have been attacked in recent weeks, with 10 crew members killed and roughly 800 commercial vessels now stranded—half of them oil tankers. For mortgage originators, every 1% rise in oil prices typically adds 3 to 5 basis points of upward pressure on Treasury yields within weeks, making rate locks increasingly valuable for borrowers on the fence. Goldman Sachs kicked off earnings season with disappointing results, with shares down 4.5% in premarket trading due to a revenue miss in fixed-income, currency, and commodities trading. The broader S&P 500 was poised for a 0.6% opening loss, though mortgage bonds showed surprising resilience as some investors viewed the oil spike as temporary negotiating pressure rather than a fundamental economic shock. Strategists at Morgan Stanley and Swiss Life Asset Management noted that investors see the blockade as leverage in discussions rather than a permanent disruption, keeping equity and credit markets from imploding entirely. Agency MBS 30-year 5.5% coupons held near 100.80, down just 7–8 basis points from Friday's close despite the volatility. This resilience could signal that the mortgage market is absorbing the oil shock as priced-in inflation rather than repricing for structural rate-regime change. FundingShield released Q1 2026 fraud analytics showing 43.72% of a $106.7 billion loan portfolio carried material wire and title defects, with CPL discrepancies impacting 43.49% of transactions. The report underscores vulnerabilities in closing workflows just as lenders increasingly adopt AI-driven automation and embedded verification solutions to cut fraud losses. Dark Matter Technologies rolled out Ask Aiva, a conversational AI query tool allowing loan officers to ask data questions in plain English and receive reasoning behind the answers. Several lenders and vendors announced compliance and operational upgrades: PHH Mortgage rebranded as Onity Mortgage Corporation, AmeriHome updated rate sheet formatting effective April 20, and Newrez began accepting loans using the new Uniform Appraisal Dataset 3.6 format. These operational shifts suggest the industry is moving toward standardized, tech-enabled pipelines that should improve origination efficiency and reduce costly compliance errors during market stress. Existing Home Sales for March are due mid-morning today and will reflect buyer demand *before* the Iran conflict and recent mortgage rate increases hit the market in earnest. Purchase applications have already been subdued due to affordability constraints, so today's report likely shows continued weakness despite lower sales volumes than pre-pandemic levels. Fed officials including New York President Williams and Governor Waller are scheduled to speak this week; their tone on inflation and rate policy could shift market expectations if they signal heightened concern about oil-driven price pressures. The bond market is now tracking a 4.40% ceiling and 4.30% floor on the 10-year yield as the key technical levels defining near-term mortgage-rate momentum. Risk-averse originators should keep defenses tight until yields convincingly break below 4.30%, while risk-takers may find value near 4.40% if the geopolitical situation de-escalates. Locking vs Floating March inflation cooled in the core components despite headline energy spikes, but markets are treating the oil-driven spike as a harbinger of broader price acceleration if crude remains elevated. The 10-year yield's 4.40% ceiling and 4.30% floor define the near-term range; traders are cautious that renewed energy shocks could push yields higher, making it prudent for borrowers to lock if they cannot tolerate additional rate moves. Conversely, if the Hormuz blockade resolves quickly and oil prices recede, yields could drift lower, rewarding floaters who waited. For originators managing pipeline risk, the binary geopolitical outcome makes traditional hedging more critical than rate-timing bets. Today's Events March Existing Home Sales (mid-morning) Federal Reserve speakers: New York President Williams, Governor Waller Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.00 | 99.69 | | 5.5 | 100.80 | 100.95 | | 6.0 | 102.19 | 101.84 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |

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Mortgage Today (PM) - 04/08/26

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April 8, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 04/08/2026 Treasury yields are dropping hard this morning as markets brace for Iran's response deadline tonight, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.236%, down 6.4 basis points from yesterday's close. The geopolitical uncertainty has sparked a flight to safety, pushing bond prices higher and creating favorable conditions for mortgage rates. UMBS securities are following suit with solid gains across all coupons, while GNMA bonds are posting similar strength. The market's calm demeanor in early April has given way to heightened volatility as traders position for either escalation or de-escalation from the Middle East tensions. This morning's pre-market action suggests Wednesday could deliver dramatically different trading conditions than we've seen recently. Economic data released this morning painted a mixed picture for the mortgage market, with February's Core Capital Expenditures jumping 0.6% versus the 0.4% forecast, signaling stronger business investment than expected. However, Durable Goods orders disappointed with a -1.4% decline against expectations for only a -0.5% drop, suggesting some softness in manufacturing demand. The ADP Employment Change Weekly came in at 26,000 new jobs, up from the prior week's 10,000 reading, though no forecast was available for comparison. These data points are creating cross-currents in the bond market, with the stronger CapEx data potentially weighing against the geopolitical rally. The net effect appears to favor lower yields as investors prioritize safety over economic strength signals. Mortgage bond pricing is showing significant strength across the board, with UMBS 5.0% coupons up 38 basis points to 99.38, while 5.5% coupons gained 27 basis points to 101.05. The 6.0% coupon UMBS securities posted more modest gains of 7 basis points, reaching 102.22. GNMA securities are tracking closely with UMBS, showing 20 basis points of improvement in 5.0% coupons and 21 basis points in 5.5% coupons. This broad-based rally in mortgage securities is creating opportunities for originators to offer more competitive rates to borrowers. The strength in both UMBS and GNMA markets suggests institutional investors are actively seeking yield in the mortgage-backed securities space. Fed balance sheet dynamics are taking center stage as current Fed nominee Warsh signals intentions to reduce the central bank's $6.7 trillion portfolio of Treasuries and MBS. The challenge lies in understanding the liabilities these assets offset, including $3 trillion in commercial bank deposits, $2.4 trillion in currency, and $1 trillion in the Treasury's checking account. Only bank deposits can realistically be reduced, which means carefully managing bank liquidity without disrupting financial markets. This potential policy shift could have significant implications for MBS demand and pricing in the months ahead. Mortgage originators should monitor how these discussions evolve, as any actual balance sheet reduction could affect funding costs and secondary market conditions. Treasury yield movements are providing crucial directional signals for mortgage pricing, with the entire yield curve showing strength from the 2-year note down to 3.744% to the 30-year bond at 4.848%. The 10-year Treasury's 5 basis point decline to 4.246% is particularly important for mortgage rate direction, as it often serves as a benchmark for longer-term lending rates. The yield curve flattening we're seeing today suggests investors are pricing in potential economic slowdown risks or extended geopolitical uncertainty. This environment typically favors mortgage origination volumes as borrowing costs become more attractive. The key question is whether this rally can sustain itself beyond the immediate geopolitical concerns. Market volatility is expected to intensify as we approach tonight's deadline for Iran's response, with options on the table for either a two-week extension or a ceasefire that could dramatically alter tomorrow's trading landscape. Bond traders are already positioning for significant moves in either direction, creating opportunities for both gains and losses in mortgage securities. The relatively calm trading we've experienced in early April appears to be ending, with Wednesday likely to bring much more active price discovery. Originators should prepare for potential rate volatility and consider their risk management strategies accordingly. The current rally in bonds provides a window of opportunity that may not persist if geopolitical tensions ease. Locking vs Floating The current environment favors a cautious approach to floating, given the heightened geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Iran's response deadline. While bonds are rallying today on safe-haven demand, the potential for dramatic reversals on Wednesday creates significant risk for borrowers waiting for further rate improvements. The mixed economic data provides some fundamental support for lower rates, but geopolitical events can override economic fundamentals quickly. Originators should consider the timing of their pipeline and the risk tolerance of their borrowers when making lock-versus-float recommendations. Today's Events ADP Employment Change Weekly: 26K vs no forecast, 10K previous Core CapEx (February): 0.6% vs 0.4% forecast, 0% previous Durable Goods (February): -1.4% vs -0.5% forecast, 0% previous Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.38 | 0.38 | | 5.5 | 101.05 | 0.27 | | 6.0 | 102.22 | 0.07 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.58 | 0.2 | | 5.5 | 101.02 | 0.21 | | 6.0 | 101.98 | 0.15 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.744 | 100.25 | -0.045 | | 3 yr | 3.763 | 99.26 | -0.086 | | 5 yr | 3.875 | 100.001 | -0.055 | | 7 yr | 4.055 | 101.176 | -0.053 | | 10 yr | 4.246 | 99.02 | -0.05 | | 30 yr | 4.848 | 98.456 | -0.024 |

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Mortgage Today (AM) - 04/08/26

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April 8, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 04/08/2026 Treasury yields are dropping hard this morning as markets brace for Iran's response deadline tonight, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.236%, down 6.4 basis points from yesterday's close. The geopolitical uncertainty has sparked a flight to safety, pushing bond prices higher and creating favorable conditions for mortgage rates. UMBS securities are following suit with solid gains across all coupons, while GNMA bonds are posting similar strength. The market's calm demeanor in early April has given way to heightened volatility as traders position for either escalation or de-escalation from the Middle East tensions. This morning's pre-market action suggests Wednesday could deliver dramatically different trading conditions than we've seen recently. Economic data released this morning painted a mixed picture for the mortgage market, with February's Core Capital Expenditures jumping 0.6% versus the 0.4% forecast, signaling stronger business investment than expected. However, Durable Goods orders disappointed with a -1.4% decline against expectations for only a -0.5% drop, suggesting some softness in manufacturing demand. The ADP Employment Change Weekly came in at 26,000 new jobs, up from the prior week's 10,000 reading, though no forecast was available for comparison. These data points are creating cross-currents in the bond market, with the stronger CapEx data potentially weighing against the geopolitical rally. The net effect appears to favor lower yields as investors prioritize safety over economic strength signals. Mortgage bond pricing is showing significant strength across the board, with UMBS 5.0% coupons up 38 basis points to 99.38, while 5.5% coupons gained 27 basis points to 101.05. The 6.0% coupon UMBS securities posted more modest gains of 7 basis points, reaching 102.22. GNMA securities are tracking closely with UMBS, showing 20 basis points of improvement in 5.0% coupons and 21 basis points in 5.5% coupons. This broad-based rally in mortgage securities is creating opportunities for originators to offer more competitive rates to borrowers. The strength in both UMBS and GNMA markets suggests institutional investors are actively seeking yield in the mortgage-backed securities space. Fed balance sheet dynamics are taking center stage as current Fed nominee Warsh signals intentions to reduce the central bank's $6.7 trillion portfolio of Treasuries and MBS. The challenge lies in understanding the liabilities these assets offset, including $3 trillion in commercial bank deposits, $2.4 trillion in currency, and $1 trillion in the Treasury's checking account. Only bank deposits can realistically be reduced, which means carefully managing bank liquidity without disrupting financial markets. This potential policy shift could have significant implications for MBS demand and pricing in the months ahead. Mortgage originators should monitor how these discussions evolve, as any actual balance sheet reduction could affect funding costs and secondary market conditions. Treasury yield movements are providing crucial directional signals for mortgage pricing, with the entire yield curve showing strength from the 2-year note down to 3.744% to the 30-year bond at 4.848%. The 10-year Treasury's 5 basis point decline to 4.246% is particularly important for mortgage rate direction, as it often serves as a benchmark for longer-term lending rates. The yield curve flattening we're seeing today suggests investors are pricing in potential economic slowdown risks or extended geopolitical uncertainty. This environment typically favors mortgage origination volumes as borrowing costs become more attractive. The key question is whether this rally can sustain itself beyond the immediate geopolitical concerns. Market volatility is expected to intensify as we approach tonight's deadline for Iran's response, with options on the table for either a two-week extension or a ceasefire that could dramatically alter tomorrow's trading landscape. Bond traders are already positioning for significant moves in either direction, creating opportunities for both gains and losses in mortgage securities. The relatively calm trading we've experienced in early April appears to be ending, with Wednesday likely to bring much more active price discovery. Originators should prepare for potential rate volatility and consider their risk management strategies accordingly. The current rally in bonds provides a window of opportunity that may not persist if geopolitical tensions ease. Locking vs Floating The current environment favors a cautious approach to floating, given the heightened geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Iran's response deadline. While bonds are rallying today on safe-haven demand, the potential for dramatic reversals on Wednesday creates significant risk for borrowers waiting for further rate improvements. The mixed economic data provides some fundamental support for lower rates, but geopolitical events can override economic fundamentals quickly. Originators should consider the timing of their pipeline and the risk tolerance of their borrowers when making lock-versus-float recommendations. Today's Events ADP Employment Change Weekly: 26K vs no forecast, 10K previous Core CapEx (February): 0.6% vs 0.4% forecast, 0% previous Durable Goods (February): -1.4% vs -0.5% forecast, 0% previous Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.38 | 0.38 | | 5.5 | 101.05 | 0.27 | | 6.0 | 102.22 | 0.07 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.58 | 0.2 | | 5.5 | 101.02 | 0.21 | | 6.0 | 101.98 | 0.15 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.744 | 100.25 | -0.045 | | 3 yr | 3.763 | 99.26 | -0.086 | | 5 yr | 3.875 | 100.001 | -0.055 | | 7 yr | 4.055 | 101.176 | -0.053 | | 10 yr | 4.246 | 99.02 | -0.05 | | 30 yr | 4.848 | 98.456 | -0.024 |

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