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Mortgage Today (AM) - 09/04/26

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September 4, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 09/04/2026** Strong August jobs data surprised to the upside with 162,000 nonfarm payrolls added, crushing expectations of just 56,000 new positions and shifting market sentiment toward an imminent rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Mortgage rates surged to 6.71 percent as bond investors fled the market on recession fears dissolving and inflation concerns intensifying. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.79 percent, pushing UMBS 5.5 coupons down 17 ticks to 98.79 as MBS investors faced margin pressure. Unemployment held steady at 4.1 percent while labor force participation surprisingly improved, signaling a resilient job market that complicates the Fed's inflation-fighting mission. For originators, today's employment surprise erases yesterday's brief hope for a supportive Fed pivot and locks in elevated rate environment for the foreseeable future. Pending home sales turned negative for the first time since November, dropping 0.2 percent year-over-year in August after an eight-month winning streak peaked in May at 4.8 percent growth. Price reductions hit 20.4 percent of August listings, matching last year's rate as housing affordability deteriorates across the market. New active listings jumped 3.6 percent year-over-year to 1.14 million, though inventory still trails pre-pandemic levels by 11.1 percent, constraining purchase volume. Median list prices fell for the tenth consecutive month to $424,500, reflecting weakening buyer demand under persistent rate pressure. This slowdown signals originators that refinance opportunities remain muted while purchase business faces headwinds as borrowers retreat from the market. Rocket Mortgage expanded its lawsuit against UWM, alleging the wholesale lender violated nonsolicitation agreements covering nearly 182,000 mortgages sold to Mr. Cooper in 2024 through aggressive refinancing programs. According to the amended complaint, these targeted loans prepaid at roughly 2.5 times the rate of comparable mortgage pools, with more than 15,500 loans refinanced by December 2025 and UWM handling over 48 percent of those refinances. Rocket claims the activity violated programs including Refi75, KEEP, and Refi Shield 100, and is seeking at least $100 million in damages. UWM has denied all allegations and called the lawsuit baseless. This legal battle underscores servicing rights disputes and the competitive tension in loan origination channels. eXp Realty is winding down its Success Lending joint venture with Kind Lending, which originated only $270 million year to date compared with $526.5 million in all of 2025, and is now exploring a partnership with Newrez to scale its mortgage platform. Newrez originated $31.3 billion in the first half of 2026, more than four times Kind Lending's $7.5 billion, positioning it as a far more robust partner for eXp's nationwide agent network. Success Lending currently operates 113 loan officers across 22 branches while Newrez manages about 15 mortgage joint ventures. The shift reflects eXp's recognition that larger origination platforms offer better leverage for capturing purchase and refinance volume from its agent base. This consolidation trend continues reshaping how real estate platforms compete in mortgage origination. Mortgage rates are now locking in near historically elevated levels as borrowers reassess lock versus float decisions against a hardening Fed rate path. August earnings growth met expectations at 0.3 percent month-over-month while participation rate improvements suggest more resilient labor supply than anticipated. With Fed Governor Waller's recent dovish hints now erased by today's strong payrolls, traders are repricing Fed funds futures toward a September hold or potential October hike as inflation data becomes the decisive factor. Originators should prepare for sustained rate pressure and heightened volatility through next week's inflation data releases. The shift from refinance opportunities to purchase lending under elevated rates requires rapid repricing and lock-strategy guidance. **Locking vs Floating** Today's blowout jobs report erased yesterday's glimmer of hope for Fed accommodation and shifted lock-float calculus decisively toward locking. With the unemployment rate holding at 4.1 percent despite participation rate gains, the Fed's focus on labor market stability means rate hikes remain on the table if inflation data disappoints next week. Borrowers facing 6.7 percent rates should consider locking immediately rather than floating, as further weakness in bonds could push rates toward 7 percent. The combination of sticky service-sector inflation and resilient employment suggests the Fed cannot ease aggressively, making rate locks protective for loan pipelines. **Today's Events** Average earnings month-over-month (Aug): 0.3% vs 0.3% forecast, 0.1% prior Non Farm Payrolls (Aug): 162,000 vs 56,000 forecast, -23,000 prior Participation Rate (Aug): 61.6% vs 61.4% prior Unemployment rate month-over-month (Aug): 4.1% vs 4.1% forecast, 4.1% prior **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |

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Mortgage Today (PM) - 09/03/26

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September 3, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 09/03/2026** Fed Governor Waller signaled the central bank probably doesn't need to hike at next week's meeting, sending mortgage-backed securities and Treasury futures higher in morning trading. UMBS 5.5 coupons climbed to 98.96, while 10-year yields dipped to 4.744%, but afternoon weakness reversed most gains as global bond yields and oil prices remained elevated. Markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines and data releases, with tomorrow's jobs report and next week's inflation print critical to bond momentum. Jobless claims ticked up to 206,000 versus a 205,000 forecast, while continued claims held at 1.779 million, suggesting some labor market resilience. The trade deficit narrowed to $88.6 billion against a $90 billion forecast, and unit labor costs fell below expectations at 1.2%, offering modest relief on inflation pressures. Origination demand faces headwinds as pending home sales turned negative in August after eight consecutive months of growth, with mortgage rates climbing to 6.67% and price cuts reaching 20.4% of listings. United Wholesale Mortgage faces three shareholder lawsuits over a $603.2 million derivatives loss tied to a failed Two Harbors acquisition, raising questions about risk management and board oversight. UWM had built a $27.5 billion notional hedge position that persisted even after the merger agreement collapsed, prompting investors to demand answers about oversight failures. Meanwhile, NEXA continues consolidating the broker space, bringing Mortgage Nerds onto its platform while allowing the brand to retain its identity, the second such retention deal in two weeks. Purchase market activity cooling under rate pressure presents a strategic moment for servicers and mortgage technology platforms to focus on retained servicing and home equity opportunities. **Locking vs Floating** Afternoon weakness erased morning gains despite positive Fed commentary, creating uncertainty for daily rate sheets. Watch tomorrow's jobs report closely: a meaningful slowdown in hiring could ease rate pressure ahead of the Fed's September decision. War headlines and oil prices remain wild cards that could overwhelm bond market direction regardless of economic data strength. **Today's Events** Jobless Claims (Aug)/29: 206.0K vs 205K forecast, 203K previous Continued Claims (Aug)/22: 1779.0K vs forecast not available, 1778K previous Trade Gap (Jul): -88.60B vs -90B forecast, -73.3B previous Unit Labour Costs QoQ Final Q2: 1.2% vs 1.3% forecast, 1.3% previous **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 96.47 | 0.16 | | 5.5 | 98.96 | 0.14 | | 6.0 | 101.07 | 0.07 | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 96.77 | 0.16 | | 5.5 | 99.24 | 0.17 | | 6.0 | 101.24 | 0.1 | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 4.342 | 99.588 | -0.027 | | 3 yr | 4.41 | 99.555 | -0.026 | | 5 yr | 4.519 | 99.362 | -0.017 | | 7 yr | 4.635 | 99.198 | -0.015 | | 10 yr | 4.769 | 98.869 | -0.013 | | 30 yr | 5.249 | 98.134 | -0.011 | Market Data

Mortgage Today (AM) - 09/03/26

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September 3, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 09/03/2026** Mortgage-backed securities edged higher on Thursday morning as bond yields retreated from recent multi-year highs, with MBS prices climbing roughly a quarter point following Fed Vice Chair Waller's speech. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 3.6 basis points to 4.744 percent, signaling renewed demand for fixed-income assets despite persistent geopolitical risks tied to oil price volatility. UMBS 5.0 coupons jumped 29 basis points to 96.6, while GNMA securities followed suit with comparable gains across the yield curve. This modest rally occurred even as war headlines and energy concerns created ongoing headwinds for the broader market. The market is pricing roughly a 70 percent probability of a September Fed rate hike. Economic data released today painted a mixed picture for labor markets and inflation, with jobless claims coming in slightly hotter than forecast at 206,000 versus a 205,000 estimate. Continued claims held steady at 1.779 million, suggesting labor demand remains resilient despite recent layoff announcements that jumped 58 percent month-over-month to 52,881 in August. The July trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly to $88.6 billion, beating estimates of a $90.2 billion shortfall, as imports rose and exports fell in seasonal patterns. Unit labor costs came in softer than expected at 1.2 percent on a quarter-over-quarter basis, potentially offering inflation relief. These mixed signals leave the Fed's policy path uncertain heading into next week's jobs report. Treasury yields stabilized overnight as oil prices pulled back from earlier highs, easing immediate inflation concerns that had driven the curve higher earlier in the week. The 2-year yield fell 5.6 basis points to 4.313 percent, while longer-dated securities saw smaller declines across the curve. European bond yields also retreated, with Germany's 10-year yield dropping two basis points, suggesting a broader global easing in fixed-income markets. Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish stance on financial conditions remains a wildcard, as he faces pressure to either contain inflation or accommodate President Trump's monetary policy preferences. The reality is that accommodative credit conditions and strong data-center demand continue supporting economic activity despite pockets of weakness. Mortgage originators should monitor the week's calendar closely, as final August services PMI and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index arrive later today alongside ongoing Fed speaker commentary. Tomorrow's jobs report represents the most critical economic data point for rate direction before Labor Day's market closure on Monday, meaning origination volumes may shift based on employment surprises. Secondary market teams are already positioning for potential execution volatility if rates continue drifting downward, though hedging costs remain elevated relative to recent history. The trade deficit beat and softer labor cost data are supporting bond prices, but oil risks and geopolitical uncertainty could reverse gains quickly. Locking-minded borrowers should act today before any afternoon reversal. **Locking vs Floating** War headlines and oil price volatility present persistent risks for market swings, so remaining defensive until clearer trend reversals emerge is warranted for originators managing pipeline risk. Jobless claims data slightly exceeded forecasts, but unit labor costs came in softer than expected, creating conflicting signals about rate direction. The trade deficit surprise to the downside supports bond prices temporarily, but execution teams must stay alert to afternoon reversals given geopolitical headlines. **Today's Events** Continued Claims (Aug)/22: 1.779 million vs. 1.778 million prior Jobless Claims (Aug)/29: 206,000 vs. 205,000 forecast, 203,000 prior Trade Gap (Jul): -$88.6 billion vs. -$90 billion forecast, -$73.3 billion prior Unit Labour Costs QoQ FinalQ2: 1.2% vs. 1.3% forecast, 1.3% prior **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | |5.0|96.6|0.29| |5.5|99.06|0.24| |6.0|101.16|0.16| **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | |5.0|96.83|0.23| |5.5|99.26|0.18| |6.0|101.3|0.17| **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | |2 yr|4.313|99.643|-0.056| |3 yr|4.383|99.629|-0.052| |5 yr|4.487|99.506|-0.045| |7 yr|4.604|99.383|-0.045| |10 yr|4.741|99.089|-0.04| |30 yr|5.228|98.455|-0.033|

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