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Mortgage Today (AM) - 09/03/26

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September 3, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 09/03/2026** Mortgage-backed securities edged higher on Thursday morning as bond yields retreated from recent multi-year highs, with MBS prices climbing roughly a quarter point following Fed Vice Chair Waller's speech. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 3.6 basis points to 4.744 percent, signaling renewed demand for fixed-income assets despite persistent geopolitical risks tied to oil price volatility. UMBS 5.0 coupons jumped 29 basis points to 96.6, while GNMA securities followed suit with comparable gains across the yield curve. This modest rally occurred even as war headlines and energy concerns created ongoing headwinds for the broader market. The market is pricing roughly a 70 percent probability of a September Fed rate hike. Economic data released today painted a mixed picture for labor markets and inflation, with jobless claims coming in slightly hotter than forecast at 206,000 versus a 205,000 estimate. Continued claims held steady at 1.779 million, suggesting labor demand remains resilient despite recent layoff announcements that jumped 58 percent month-over-month to 52,881 in August. The July trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly to $88.6 billion, beating estimates of a $90.2 billion shortfall, as imports rose and exports fell in seasonal patterns. Unit labor costs came in softer than expected at 1.2 percent on a quarter-over-quarter basis, potentially offering inflation relief. These mixed signals leave the Fed's policy path uncertain heading into next week's jobs report. Treasury yields stabilized overnight as oil prices pulled back from earlier highs, easing immediate inflation concerns that had driven the curve higher earlier in the week. The 2-year yield fell 5.6 basis points to 4.313 percent, while longer-dated securities saw smaller declines across the curve. European bond yields also retreated, with Germany's 10-year yield dropping two basis points, suggesting a broader global easing in fixed-income markets. Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish stance on financial conditions remains a wildcard, as he faces pressure to either contain inflation or accommodate President Trump's monetary policy preferences. The reality is that accommodative credit conditions and strong data-center demand continue supporting economic activity despite pockets of weakness. Mortgage originators should monitor the week's calendar closely, as final August services PMI and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index arrive later today alongside ongoing Fed speaker commentary. Tomorrow's jobs report represents the most critical economic data point for rate direction before Labor Day's market closure on Monday, meaning origination volumes may shift based on employment surprises. Secondary market teams are already positioning for potential execution volatility if rates continue drifting downward, though hedging costs remain elevated relative to recent history. The trade deficit beat and softer labor cost data are supporting bond prices, but oil risks and geopolitical uncertainty could reverse gains quickly. Locking-minded borrowers should act today before any afternoon reversal. **Locking vs Floating** War headlines and oil price volatility present persistent risks for market swings, so remaining defensive until clearer trend reversals emerge is warranted for originators managing pipeline risk. Jobless claims data slightly exceeded forecasts, but unit labor costs came in softer than expected, creating conflicting signals about rate direction. The trade deficit surprise to the downside supports bond prices temporarily, but execution teams must stay alert to afternoon reversals given geopolitical headlines. **Today's Events** Continued Claims (Aug)/22: 1.779 million vs. 1.778 million prior Jobless Claims (Aug)/29: 206,000 vs. 205,000 forecast, 203,000 prior Trade Gap (Jul): -$88.6 billion vs. -$90 billion forecast, -$73.3 billion prior Unit Labour Costs QoQ FinalQ2: 1.2% vs. 1.3% forecast, 1.3% prior **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | |5.0|96.6|0.29| |5.5|99.06|0.24| |6.0|101.16|0.16| **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | |5.0|96.83|0.23| |5.5|99.26|0.18| |6.0|101.3|0.17| **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | |2 yr|4.313|99.643|-0.056| |3 yr|4.383|99.629|-0.052| |5 yr|4.487|99.506|-0.045| |7 yr|4.604|99.383|-0.045| |10 yr|4.741|99.089|-0.04| |30 yr|5.228|98.455|-0.033|

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Mortgage Today (AM) - 09/02/26

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September 2, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 09/02/2026** A perfect storm of global headwinds is pushing mortgage rates to their highest levels in four weeks, with the 30-year fixed climbing to 6.79 percent and MBS prices showing modest gains while bond yields remain under pressure. The 10-year Treasury is holding near 4.79 percent as international demand for government debt weakens across developed economies. War tensions in the Middle East, massive government deficits, and a borrowing binge by technology companies seeking artificial intelligence infrastructure are all driving investors away from bonds. The United States is not alone: France, Japan, and other major economies are seeing their borrowing costs rise to decade-high levels. Until these macro pressures reverse, expect rates to remain sticky at current elevated levels. Employment data released this morning reveals a significant slowdown in job creation, with August businesses adding just 38,000 positions compared to the 47,000 consensus forecast and 46,000 in July. This marks the second consecutive month of weak hiring and signals a potential cooling in the labor market. Mortgage applications rose just 0.8 percent last week, with purchase applications gaining 2 percent but remaining essentially flat year over year. The ARM share has spiked to 8 percent—the highest in five weeks—as the 85 basis point spread between 30-year fixed and 5/1 ARM rates is pushing cost-conscious borrowers toward adjustable products. This shift reflects the brutal affordability landscape where even cheaper alternative products are gaining traction. The real estate servicing business is being reimagined as HomeServices of America launches in-house mortgage servicing through Prosperity Home Mortgage, recognizing that servicers now control years of valuable borrower data. Company leadership acknowledges that servicers can identify borrowers ready to buy or sell before any real estate agent ever gets a look. This upstream move transforms lead generation from the home search to the monthly mortgage payment, leveraging equity position, rate sensitivity, and financial behavior insights that traditional agents simply cannot match. The servicing flywheel is becoming the new engine driving real estate transactions across the industry. Global bond market stress reflects unprecedented fiscal pressures that central banks cannot easily resolve through monetary policy alone. The U.S. gross national debt topped 40 trillion dollars—representing over 120 percent of the nation's economy—while investors globally demand higher yields to compensate for mounting default risk. Technology companies are swamping bond markets with billions in new issuance to fund artificial intelligence infrastructure, pulling investor capital away from government bonds. Brent crude oil climbed above 94 dollars per barrel this week, about 30 percent higher than prewar levels, adding inflation expectations that could push central banks toward tighter policies. With few politicians willing to address structural budget deficits, market forces will continue to dictate higher rates. Stewart Title acquired ProTitleUSA and DocSolutionUSA to expand title analytics, portfolio diligence, mortgage document generation, and due diligence capabilities across its lender services platform. These acquisitions add automation, analytics, and product creation tools that strengthen Stewart's offerings for lenders, servicers, and institutional real estate clients operating throughout the mortgage and real estate lifecycle. NEXA Lending launched NEXA Unlimited, a compensation model offering loan officers 100 percent revenue from their loans with no flat fees, per-file charges, funding fees, or closing costs. The move directly challenges flat-fee and transaction-based independent mortgage bank models and signals growing pressure on how the origination industry must compensate talent to remain competitive. Defensive positioning is warranted until Treasury and MBS markets show clear signs of reversal, with geopolitical uncertainty and oil price volatility presenting persistent risks to any bullish positioning. The combination of employment weakness and sustained bond market selling creates a mixed signal for mortgage originators, but the fundamental drivers pushing yields higher remain unresolved. Originators should monitor the remainder of this week's economic calendar—factory orders, crude oil inventories, and the Fed's Beige Book—for any signs that inflation or growth expectations are shifting downward. For now, the path of least resistance remains sideways to higher rates. **Locking vs Floating** War headlines and oil price volatility present persistent risks for volatile moves higher. Remain defensive until a clear reversal in the bigger-picture trend emerges. The employment data disappointed expectations, which could eventually support better rate momentum, but geopolitical pressures are offsetting any positive labor-market signals. **Today's Events** ADP Employment Change: 38,000 jobs created versus 47,000 forecast and 46,000 prior month. Later today: July Factory Orders, weekly crude oil inventories, September Federal Reserve Beige Book. **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 96.19 | 0.05 | | 5.5 | 98.73 | 0.06 | | 6.0 | 100.95 | 0.04 | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 96.53 | 0.11 | | 5.5 | 99.02 | 0.04 | | 6.0 | 101.27 | 0.12 | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |

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Mortgage Today (PM) - 09/01/26

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September 1, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 09/01/2026** Geopolitical tensions pushed Treasury yields to their highest levels since January 2025 as mid-day reports of new airstrikes in Iran triggered an immediate oil price surge and bond market selloff. The 10-year yield climbed to 4.79%, reversing morning gains that had followed better-than-expected economic data releases. Mortgage-backed securities followed suit, with UMBS 5.5 coupons dropping 32 basis points and GNMA equivalents falling 37 basis points on the day. Bond traders scrambled to purchase protective options, with positioning data showing record hedging activity across longer-dated treasuries. The rush to build defensive positions reflects growing concerns about fiscal deficits, persistent inflation, and the war-driven energy price shock. Economic data released this morning initially supported bonds but failed to provide lasting support. The ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 54.6 versus a forecast of 55.2, while prices paid held steady at 71.1. Job openings fell to 7.271 million from 7.359 million previously, suggesting labor market softening. These modest misses suggested rate-cut potential, but geopolitical headlines overwhelmed the dovish narrative by midday. Oil prices hit their highest level since late July, creating inflation concerns that outweighed employment softness in trader calculus. Investors are paying millions in options premiums to protect against further yield spikes. According to latest data, traders have taken large positions betting on the 30-year yield reaching 5.7% by end of November, while current levels sit near 5.27%. Positions on 10-year yields trading to 4.85% and 5-year yields climbing to 4.6% also saw significant activity, showing conviction about higher yields ahead. Treasury Secretary Bessent's August announcement of expanded buyback programs has failed to contain selling pressure so far. Global bond markets show similar stress, with Germany's 30-year yields hitting 2011 highs and UK rates reaching 1998 levels. Mortgage originators face mounting reprice risk as lenders hit intraday lows for the second time in as many hours. Some lenders reported one-eighth point of weakness versus morning rate sheet prints, though earliest lenders remained just shy of actual reprice thresholds at two ticks of weakness. The 10-year ceiling of 4.80% held briefly before breaking, with the floor now sitting at 4.71%. Until technical support holds or geopolitical tensions ease, a defensive posture remains prudent despite being uncomfortable. The Federal Reserve faces a crucial test at its September 15-16 meeting with Chairman Kevin Warsh signaling hawkishness despite stubborn inflation readings. Traders are pricing roughly 17 basis points or 70% odds of tightening at that meeting following Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks. Neutral Treasury positioning dropped to September 2025 lows while both long and short positions hit recent highs, indicating conviction flowing both directions. SOFR options show elevated activity around the 96.25 strike (3.75% yield equivalent) with large call spreads established in September and December contracts. The bond market's anxiety will likely persist at the long end rather than the short end that monetary policy controls. **Locking vs Floating** Volatility from geopolitical headlines and oil price swings presents persistent risk that warrants a defensive stance. Borrowers should avoid chasing rate sheets until clearer technical reversals emerge in the broader bond market trend. War headlines create asymmetric risk—further deterioration could push yields higher, but sustained airstrikes rarely drive yields lower. Lock-in certainty rather than floating for potential basis point gains in this environment. **Today's Events** ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug): 54.6 vs 55.2 forecast, 55.6 previous ISM Mfg Prices Paid (Aug): 71.1 vs 72 forecast, 71.1 previous USA JOLTS Job Openings (Jul): 7.271M vs 7.3M forecast, 7.359M previous **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 96.14 | -0.35 | | 5.5 | 98.67 | -0.34 | | 6.0 | 100.91 | -0.22 | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 96.42 | -0.45 | | 5.5 | 98.98 | -0.37 | | 6.0 | 101.15 | -0.22 | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | Market Data

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