Loading...
HOME2023-01-22T13:43:33-07:00

“Damn, there is so much great knowledge out there. Did you know that “BOOKS” are full of smart?? No, I mean like life changing, I-wish-I-knew-that-years-ago type stuff.

I know that I was waaaayyy late to the game figuring it out. And I know that a lot of you are too busy to read as much as you ‘should’. And that is why you need me.

I still remember how it started for me. It started in June of 2008. After 11  years …..Click to continue

Mortgage Today (PM) - 05/20/26 {{catlist}}
May 20, 2026 READ MORE **WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 05/20/2026** Bonds exploded higher on Wednesday with a stunning 10-basis-point rally in the 10-year Treasury, powered entirely by geopolitical optimism rather than economic data. News that U.S. and Iran peace negotiations are in final stages—with Pakistani military officials potentially announcing agreement details as soon as today—triggered broad-based buying across MBS and Treasuries. This sharp reversal erased Tuesday's rout and reinforces a critical lesson for loan officers: confirmed peace resolutions could spark additional rate rallies, but uncertainty remains the dominant risk factor. UMBS 5.0 closed at 97.41, up 0.60 from Tuesday's close, while the 10-year yield collapsed to 4.567%. For originators, this intraday volatility underscores why daily rate monitoring matters more than ever. Down payments have fallen to their lowest level since 2021 as rising inventory and moderating price growth ease the pressure that defined recent years in housing. Realtor.com's latest data shows buyers no longer need massive cash reserves just to compete in offer wars, a structural shift with profound implications for loan structuring conversations. However, lower down payments do not mean easier lending—mortgage rates remain elevated, affordability is still strained, and FHA and VA financing have become critical tools for closing deals. Loan officers must pivot from "winning the race to the offer table" toward helping borrowers preserve liquidity and optimize financing options. This shift favors originators who can educate clients on product selection rather than simply compete on rate. Barney Frank, the architect of post-2007 mortgage regulation, passed away at 86, leaving behind a legacy that fundamentally reshaped how every lender and servicer operates today. The Dodd-Frank Act's Ability-to-Repay rule and Qualified Mortgage standard ended predatory lending practices that nearly destroyed the housing market, yet the same rules now cost lenders thousands of dollars per loan in compliance overhead. Frank's regulatory framework has proven difficult to unwind despite evolving technology and market conditions over the past 15 years. While his work achieved its primary objective—preventing another housing collapse—critics argue the blunt-force rules ignore how the modern mortgage business actually functions. Two Harbors' board postponed the long-anticipated shareholder vote on the CCM-UWM merger saga to at least May 28, extending investor uncertainty another week. The delayed vote frustrated market observers who expected resolution this week, but the board determined additional time was necessary to address shareholder concerns. Meanwhile, Rocket Pro announced integration of VantageScore 4.0, which has sparked industry conversation about credit score divergence: one Midwest borrower scored 600–670 on FICO Classic but 745–772 on VantageScore 4.0, a stunning 133-point gap that could dramatically alter borrower eligibility. The credit scoring controversy highlights how different methodologies can benefit certain borrower profiles, creating arbitrage opportunities for brokers and wholesale lenders who strategically deploy competing score models. This trend will only accelerate as more players adopt alternative credit scoring frameworks. Finally, loan officers should note that inventory gains and moderating price growth are reshaping origination conversations from "how do I close this deal faster" to "how do I help my client maximize financial flexibility." The down payment decline combined with elevated rates means borrowers need smarter structuring advice: FHA versus conventional trade-offs, purchase versus HELOC strategies, and liquidity preservation tactics. Total Expert and other LOS providers are responding with new lead management tools designed to accelerate response times and pipeline visibility. For originators willing to evolve beyond rate competition toward financial advisory positioning, the current market environment presents significant opportunity. **Locking vs Floating** Market connection between bond prices and geopolitical headlines remains extraordinarily strong. A confirmed peace deal between the United States and Iran would likely spark additional rate rallies, but high uncertainty about the timeline and ultimate resolution keeps risk bidirectional. MBS pricing continues to help with intraday portfolio management, while 10-year yield levels at 4.567% provide helpful technical ceilings and floors for locking decisions. Originators should monitor 4.59% as a resistance floor and 4.80% as a ceiling on the upside. **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | Market Data Mortgage Today (AM) - 05/20/26 {{catlist}}
May 20, 2026 READ MORE **WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 05/20/2026** The 10-year Treasury yield dropped 2.7 basis points to 4.639% as bond market whales made waves in Treasury futures, signaling renewed flight-to-safety positioning. UMBS 30-year securities posted modest gains, with the 6.0 coupon rising 0.11 points to 101.37, while GNMA securities moved more cautiously. Mortgage origination volume continues to face headwinds from elevated rates, though investors remain active in positioning for near-term bond market repricing. Pending home sales climbed 1.4% month-over-month in April while gaining 3.2% year-over-year, according to the National Association of REALTORS. Regional strength varied, with gains in the Northeast, Midwest, and West offset by softness in the South. NAR's Chief Economist Lawrence Yun attributed the cautious optimism to buyers believing rates will eventually retreat from current elevated levels, with demand poised to accelerate once mortgage rates fall. ARM adoption surged to nearly 10% of total mortgage applications—the highest share since October 2025—as the 30-year fixed rate hit 6.56% last week. The 5-year ARM rate of 5.76% now offers an 80 basis point discount to the 30-year fixed, making the math hard to ignore for cost-conscious borrowers. Purchase applications fell 4% and remain just 8% above year-ago levels, signaling buyer pullback across both conventional and government loan types. Rocket and Redfin launched a joint homebuying program offering up to $20,000 in combined lender credits and commission discounts when customers use both platforms. Existing Rocket-serviced borrowers receive the biggest incentives—up to $20,000—if they remain in the ecosystem for future transactions. In a refinance-starved market, these cash incentives represent a critical strategy for lenders to retain servicing relationships and boost origination volume. Among the 300 largest metro area housing markets, 81 experienced year-over-year home price declines between April 2025 and April 2026, with the Sun Belt region seeing the most significant softness. Homebuyers in these markets have gained meaningful leverage, reducing origination competition in previously hot markets. This geographic divergence creates both challenges and opportunities for mortgage sellers focused on specific regional demand. Wells Fargo agreed to a $110 million settlement for lending and hiring discrimination complaints, adding regulatory compliance costs to an already pressured mortgage banking landscape. Homebuilder sentiment improved in May on late spring demand surge, suggesting potential tailwinds for purchase mortgage applications. Treasury and mortgage bond positioning remains volatile, requiring originators to monitor yield ceilings and floors carefully for timing signals on rate direction. **Locking vs Floating** War-related headlines continue to drive unpredictable bond market reactions, making traditional lock-and-float strategies unreliable. Defensive positioning—waiting for the bond market to prove it can sustain a meaningful rally—offers better risk-adjusted returns than aggressive early locking based on recent precedent. MBS price intraday movement helps manage immediate portfolio risk, but tracking 10-year yield ceilings and floors provides superior visibility into broader bond market momentum and directional momentum. **Today's Events** ADP Employment Change Weekly: 42.25K (previous 33.0K) **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 96.95 | 0.14 | | 5.5 | 99.33 | 0.12 | | 6.0 | 101.37 | 0.11 | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 97.47 | 0.06 | | 5.5 | 99.69 | 0.07 | | 6.0 | 101.35 | 0.06 | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 4.095 | 99.581 | -0.023 | | 3 yr | 4.176 | 98.113 | -0.026 | | 5 yr | 4.301 | 98.1 | -0.022 | | 7 yr | 4.472 | 98.678 | -0.026 | | 10 yr | 4.646 | 95.872 | -0.022 | | 30 yr | 5.169 | 93.655 | -0.012 | Market Data Mortgage Today (PM) - 05/19/26 {{catlist}}
May 19, 2026 READ MORE **WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 05/19/2026** The Treasury futures market saw massive block trading today with over $20 billion in outright trades—the largest single day on record by one estimate. Analysts believe only one or two massive "whales" orchestrated these moves rather than broad-based selling pressure from the wider market. The silver lining is that other sellers held their ground instead of jumping on the bandwagon, preventing a cascade of panic. UMBS securities fell across all coupons with the 5.0 coupon dropping 0.61 points to 96.81 by afternoon. By day's end, the 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.667%, up nearly 8 basis points, signaling defensive positioning from institutional players. MBS pricing deteriorated throughout the morning as bonds entered a freefall pattern that continued well after lender rate sheets published. The 5.0 UMBS coupon lost 5/8ths of a point while 5.5 coupons dropped half a point, with more than one-eighth arriving after 10 a.m. This timing created repricing risk for lenders whose initial rate sheets proved too aggressive for the actual market weakness. Conversely, lenders who moved defensively by raising rates significantly now face potential positive reprices if bonds recover further ground. GNMA 30-year securities held slightly firmer than UMBS, with the 5.0 coupon down only 0.38 points, suggesting some mortgage-backed security demand persisted despite the selloff. The lock-versus-float decision remains hostage to unpredictable war-related headlines that continue rattling markets with no discernible pattern. Recent precedent suggests adopting a defensive posture and waiting for the bond market to prove it can sustain a meaningful rally before lowering rate locks. That playbook worked previously but offers no guarantee for future performance in this volatile environment. Borrowers caught between rate certainty and price risk should communicate clearly with their loan officers about market conditions and repricing potential. The technical ceiling at 4.80% in the 10-year offers a potential lock trigger if markets stabilize, but momentum remains downward. **Today's Events** ADP Employment Change Weekly: 42,250 versus no forecast, previous 33,000 **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 96.81 | -0.61 | | 5.5 | 99.22 | -0.45 | | 6.0 | 101.26 | -0.26 | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 97.41 | -0.38 | | 5.5 | 99.62 | -0.17 | | 6.0 | 101.28 | -0.11 | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 4.118 | 99.538 | 0.072 | | 3 yr | 4.202 | 98.042 | 0.084 | | 5 yr | 4.323 | 98.004 | 0.089 | | 7 yr | 4.498 | 98.524 | 0.092 | | 10 yr | 4.667 | 95.706 | 0.082 | | 30 yr | 5.181 | 93.48 | 0.057 | Market Data LATEST ARTICLES

RECENT ARTICLES

Mortgage Today (PM) – 05/20/26

May 20th, 2026|Week In Review|

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 05/20/2026** Bonds exploded higher on Wednesday with a stunning 10-basis-point rally in the 10-year Treasury, powered entirely by geopolitical optimism rather than economic data. [...]

Read More

Mortgage Today (AM) – 05/20/26

May 20th, 2026|Week In Review|

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 05/20/2026** The 10-year Treasury yield dropped 2.7 basis points to 4.639% as bond market whales made waves in Treasury futures, signaling renewed flight-to-safety positioning. [...]

Read More

Mortgage Today (PM) – 05/19/26

May 19th, 2026|Week In Review|

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 05/19/2026** The Treasury futures market saw massive block trading today with over $20 billion in outright trades—the largest single day on record by one [...]

Read More

Article Archive

Mortgage Today (AM) – 05/19/26

May 19th, 2026|0 Comments

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 05/19/2026** UMBS opened softer as global headline noise failed to spark dip buying. Current stacks show UMBS 30yr 5.0 at 97.16 (-0.26), 5.5 at [...]

Mortgage Today (AM) – 05/18/26

May 18th, 2026|0 Comments

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 05/18/2026** The New York Federal Reserve manufacturing index exploded to 19.60 in May, crushing the 7.5 forecast and signaling unexpected economic strength that sent [...]

Mortgage Today (PM) – 05/15/26

May 15th, 2026|0 Comments

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 05/15/2026** Mortgage-backed securities plunged 0.75 points Friday as global uncertainty over Iran tensions and persistent inflation fears sent Treasury yields soaring to one-year highs. [...]

Mortgage Today (AM) – 05/15/26

May 15th, 2026|0 Comments

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 05/15/2026** The afternoon bond rally collapsed on Thursday, leaving mortgage securities and Treasuries sharply weaker heading into Friday. UMBS 30-year prices fell across all [...]

Mortgage Today (AM) – 05/14/26

May 14th, 2026|0 Comments

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 05/14/2026** MBS rallied strongly overnight after initially selling off when producer prices crushed forecasts, with the 30-year UMBS 5.0 coupon gaining 22 basis points [...]

Mortgage Today (PM) – 05/13/26

May 13th, 2026|0 Comments

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 05/13/2026** Mortgage-backed securities staged a stunning intraday recovery after hotter-than-expected inflation data briefly sent markets reeling this morning. The April PPI report shocked traders [...]

Subscribe

Send me some brain food

Subscribe
© Copyright 2019 |   Well That Makes Sense   |   All Rights Reserved
FacebookXLinkedIn
Go to Top