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HOME2023-01-22T13:43:33-07:00

“Damn, there is so much great knowledge out there. Did you know that “BOOKS” are full of smart?? No, I mean like life changing, I-wish-I-knew-that-years-ago type stuff.

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I still remember how it started for me. It started in June of 2008. After 11  years …..Click to continue

Mortgage Today (AM) - 07/08/26 {{catlist}}
July 8, 2026 READ MORE **WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 07/08/2026** Geopolitical tensions reignited overnight as Trump declared Iran's ceasefire "over" following attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and subsequent U.S. retaliatory strikes, sending oil prices up nearly six percent and mortgage rates higher across all coupons. The 30-year fixed rate moved to 6.63 percent as crude oil surged, reinforcing the simple equation that higher oil equals higher inflation and elevated rates. Mortgage-backed securities weakened sharply with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.568 percent on the day, though the market's morning reaction proved modest at only 3 ticks (.09) lower on UMBS. Most traders expect next week's consumer price data and ongoing Federal Reserve positioning to dominate market movement more than geopolitical headlines. Despite the volatility, refinance opportunities remain extremely limited with year-over-year basis points shrinking to just 19 points below historical thresholds. Mortgage demand contracted for the second consecutive week as total application volume dropped 2.2 percent for the week ending July 3, with refinance applications falling 4 percent and purchase applications declining 1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis. The weakness reflects Fourth of July holiday seasonality combined with elevated rate levels that continue to suppress refinancing activity. Purchase applications remain five percent higher year-over-year while refinances sit eight percent above last year's level, but these comparisons offer little comfort to lenders facing historically depressed refinancing spreads. Government-backed VA purchase applications rose five percent for the week, suggesting lower-down-payment products are gaining traction as conventional purchase activity softens. The MBA refinance index remains near historical lows, pointing to minimal prospects for a meaningful refinance wave unless rates drop substantially. VantageScore released a white paper claiming its 4.0 credit model can identify more than five million creditworthy borrowers that FICO Score 10T cannot, potentially unlocking up to one trillion dollars in origination volume. The company attributes this broader reach to machine learning, trended credit data, and alternative payment histories including rent, telecom, and utility payments, which it says provides 400 percent more data than legacy FICO models when assessing thin-file borrowers. This competitive challenge to FICO's dominance comes as lenders increasingly seek tools to expand credit box access in a tight refinance environment. The dispute underscores ongoing tension between traditional credit scoring methodologies and newer approaches that leverage alternative data sources. For mortgage originators, this development means potential access to previously unavailable borrower populations if lenders adopt VantageScore's expanded framework. Better Mortgage settled an underwriter overtime wage lawsuit for 7.185 million dollars, reflecting broader labor cost pressures facing large lending platforms. Lennar stock declined following intensified litigation with a Florida Native American tribe over allegedly uninhabitable homes constructed on tribal land, a lawsuit that began gaining traction nearly a year ago. Former Stockton Mortgage employees denied allegations they orchestrated a mass departure to competitor Novus Home Mortgage and stole borrower data and trade secrets. Equity Prime Mortgage announced it would deliver full loan disclosures in six languages, positioning itself as the only 100 percent third-party lender offering such comprehensive language access. These diverse industry developments highlight ongoing regulatory scrutiny and operational challenges facing mortgage lenders across multiple fronts. **Locking vs Floating** Caution remains warranted given weak follow-through after recent attempts to hold mortgage rates below 4.42 percent on the 10-year Treasury. The 4.51 percent technical ceiling on the 10-year has now been challenged, and war-related headlines continue introducing additional volatility to an already uncertain market. Mortgage-backed security price movements provide intraday risk signals, while 10-year yield ceilings and floors help track longer-term bond market momentum, offering mortgage sellers critical insight into macro positioning beyond daily noise. **Today's Events** MBA mortgage applications for the week ending July 3 reported early morning; May wholesale inventories, weekly crude oil inventories, June FOMC minutes, May consumer credit, and a Treasury auction of 39 billion dollars in 10-year notes all scheduled for later in the session. **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 97.7 | -0.09 | | 5.5 | 99.95 | -0.08 | | 6.0 | 101.93 | -0.04 | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.17 | -0.01 | | 5.5 | 100.2 | -0.1 | | 6.0 | 101.87 | -0.1 | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | Market Data Mortgage Today (PM) - 07/06/26 {{catlist}}
July 7, 2026 READ MORE **WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 07/06/2026** Two Harbors shareholders approved CrossCountry Mortgage's acquisition at $12 per share plus a stub dividend, ending months of competing bids with Ultrawealth Mortgage left on the sidelines. The deal, expected to close in August 2026, merges Two Harbors' $158.89 billion MSR portfolio with CrossCountry's retail origination engine and RoundPoint's servicing platform. The combined entity will operate approximately $360 billion in total servicing—a significant consolidation in an industry hunting for scale. UWM's final bid of $12.50 fell short despite the headline number, since their stock consideration would have been worth far less given their depressed share price. This deal underscores the continued push toward larger, integrated origination-servicing platforms. The Biden-era SAVE student loan program phase-out hits 7 million borrowers with 90 days to migrate to new repayment plans, directly pressuring debt-to-income ratios for mortgage applicants already stretched thin. Monthly payments will climb for millions, shrinking purchasing power at the exact moment mortgage rates hover near 4.5 percent. Student loan delinquencies were already rising—10.3 percent of balances were 90-plus days past due in Q1 2026—and this forced migration will likely accelerate that trend. Originators should pull fresh credit reports on affected borrowers and reach out proactively before delinquency sets in, especially in high-cost markets like Florida. This policy change represents a hidden headwind for mortgage qualification that most lenders have underestimated. Litigation against mortgage servicers is spiking sharply, with TCPA complaints alone up nearly 30 percent through May, and attorneys warn the surge is just beginning. AI tools are democratizing lawsuit filing for distressed borrowers, making it easier for individuals to challenge everything from lender licensing to notary fraud without hiring counsel. State regulators are stepping up enforcement as the CFPB winds down enforcement pressure, creating a pincer movement that leaves servicers exposed. Even flawed AI-generated complaints demand full legal responses, creating enormous defense costs for companies already stretched operationally. Compliance teams should expect board-level budget discussions around litigation reserves and staffing. Mike Kortas launched evoLend, a Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae-approved servicer designed to keep loan officers connected to their borrowers after loan sales occur. The platform operates in three modes: direct MSR ownership, subservicing while lenders retain MSRs, or API integrations feeding servicing data back to originators. This addresses a longstanding pain point where LOs lose visibility once their loans are sold, often cutting them off from repeat-business referrals and client relationships. PennyMac is expected to be the first partner, with a year-one target of $2 billion in serviced loans. The model is notable because it acknowledges that loan officers drive origination volume—keeping them engaged post-closing could become a competitive advantage in tight markets. MISMO updated its Mortgage Insurance Implementation Guide to support VantageScore 4.0 and FICO 10T, expanding scoring flexibility for mortgage insurers evaluating borrower creditworthiness. This technical update aligns the mortgage insurance ecosystem with broader credit bureau modernization efforts. Finance of America also completed an all-cash acquisition of reverse mortgage assets from Onity, further consolidating the reverse mortgage market segment. These operational moves reflect continued industry consolidation and technology upgrades beneath the headline market data. Hiring slowed in June across broader employment, adding economic headwind to mortgage demand assumptions. **Locking vs Floating** The 10-year Treasury yield held below the 4.51 percent ceiling over the weekend, which risk-tolerant originators can use as a conservative lock trigger. More aggressive originators might wait for yields to threaten the 4.57 percent level before locking wholesale prices. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 54.0 versus a 54.0 forecast and 54.5 previously, suggesting steady services activity without surprise economic acceleration. Treasury yields and MBS ceilings and floors provide more reliable momentum signals than intraday price moves, so focus on larger trend breaks rather than tick-by-tick volatility. **Today's Events** ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (June): 54.0 vs. 54.0 forecast, 54.5 previous **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.33 | 0.24 | | 5.5 | 100.4 | 0.14 | | 6.0 | 102.21 | 0.22 | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.65 | 0.14 | | 5.5 | 100.56 | 0.25 | | 6.0 | 102.02 | 0.02 | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2yr | 4.107 | 99.797 | -0.03 | | 3yr | 4.133 | 99.979 | -0.032 | | 5yr | 4.196 | 99.681 | -0.036 | | 7yr | 4.33 | 99.523 | -0.025 | | 10yr | 4.47 | 99.242 | -0.016 | | 30yr | 4.986 | 100.211 | 0.008 | Market Data Mortgage Today (AM) - 07/07/26 {{catlist}}
July 7, 2026 READ MORE **WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 07/07/2026** Bond markets opened Tuesday with modest downward pressure as Amazon's $25 billion debt offering signaled corporate borrowing momentum, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield up 2.1 basis points to 4.492 percent by morning. UMBS securities declined across coupons, with the 5.0 coupon down 0.19 and the 6.0 coupon down 0.07, while GNMA 5.5 coupons fell 0.14 points in early trading. The overnight weakness followed a weekend hold above the 4.51 percent ceiling, though risk-tolerant clients view continued price support as constructive relative to yesterday's close. MBS investors remain focused on supply dynamics and issuance trends as the spring homebuying season gradually fades into summer activity patterns. Agency MBS supply continues recovering from 2023 lows, with refinancing activity driving growth even as purchase originations remain modest. Equity volatility in semiconductor stocks, particularly Samsung's 11 percent Seoul tumble despite record AI-driven profits, added overhead pressure to risk sentiment and tempered bond demand. Oil prices rose on Strait of Hormuz shipping attacks, climbing to $72.60 per barrel for Brent crude, which historically correlates with inflation expectations and bond yield movements. The week ahead brings the Federal Open Market Committee minutes release, which markets expect could reveal shifts in the Fed's inflation assessment given uncertain labor market data and mixed price pressures. Private payroll data from ADP showed just 21,000 average weekly gains through mid-June, suggesting continued labor market softness that may inform near-term Fed deliberation. While core inflation remains a concern for some officials, softer employment trends and retreating oil prices have raised the bar for immediate monetary policy action. Mortgage industry focus shifted toward capacity and operational readiness as November 2 approaches for Universal Appraisal Dataset 3.6 implementation. Lenders considering the deadline as early October rather than November must coordinate with appraisers, technology vendors, and GSE workflows to ensure seamless UAD 3.6 adoption. The MISMO leadership acknowledged the industry is not ready operationally, despite vendor technology being largely developed, because interconnected systems require coordinated change across thousands of firms. Summer activity typically lightens trading volume and hedging activity, which aligns with current subdued TBA hedge volumes and specified pool trading patterns observed this week. Disciplined pricing and attention to issuance patterns remain critical as volatility persists and mortgage lenders navigate a range-bound rate environment. Consumer behavior continues reshaping mortgage origination workflows, with technology increasingly serving as a friction-reduction tool rather than a loan officer replacement. Zillow's integration of pre-approval verification into home search exemplifies how digital experiences work best when they remove confusion and organize information around borrower questions. Only 28 percent of prospective buyers achieve pre-approval before searching for homes, leaving substantial opportunity for lenders to enhance transparency and compress decision timelines. The most successful digital strategies eliminate routine work while preserving human expertise for judgment, problem-solving, and relationship management. Title services integration into transaction management software further streamlines closing workflows and reduces delays for borrowers and professionals alike. Today's economic calendar includes May import and export prices, the May trade balance, Redbook same-store sales, June consumer inflation expectations, and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow for Q2. A three-year Treasury note auction occurs this afternoon, which will provide market guidance on near-term demand for intermediate-duration fixed income. These data releases and auctions carry subdued importance given their lower market sensitivity compared to employment and inflation prints. Market participants remain positioned for patience from the Fed while awaiting clearer catalysts for directional rate movement. No major surprises are expected today, leaving bond markets likely to consolidate within established technical ranges. **Locking vs Floating** Caution remains appropriate due to lack of follow-through below the 4.42 percent 10-year yield level, though the weekend hold above the 4.51 percent ceiling provides some encouragement. Risk-tolerant clients welcomed bonds holding ground, suggesting 4.51 percent as a conservative lock trigger with 4.57 percent available as a more aggressive option. These yield ceilings and floors help track bigger-picture bond market momentum beyond intraday MBS price fluctuations. Current weakness and overnight corporate bond supply represent headwinds, but employment softness and oil price reversal offer offsetting support. Monitor Fed communications and economic data before committing rate locks given volatile positioning. **Today's Events** May Import and Export Prices | May Trade Balance | Redbook Same Store Sales | June Consumer Inflation Expectations | Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) | 3-Year Treasury Note Auction **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.14 | -0.19 | | 5.5 | 100.32 | -0.08 | | 6.0 | 102.13 | -0.07 | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.57 | -0.08 | | 5.5 | 100.42 | -0.14 | | 6.0 | 102.03 | 0 | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 4.14 | 99.734 | 0.028 | | 3 yr | 4.164 | 99.891 | 0.031 | | 5 yr | 4.231 | 99.526 | 0.035 | | 7 yr | 4.358 | 99.354 | 0.028 | | 10 yr | 4.499 | 99.009 | 0.029 | | 30 yr | 5.012 | 99.818 | 0.025 | Market Data LATEST ARTICLES

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