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Mortgage Today (AM) - 06/24/26

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June 24, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 06/24/2026** The mortgage market ended sideways after the last meaningful rally faded on May 28, though yields are holding better than two weeks ago—a modest silver lining in an otherwise uninspired bond market. MBS prices surged nearly three-eighths this morning as the 10-year Treasury yield dropped 6.6 basis points to 4.432 percent, signaling intraday support despite the broader lack of bullish catalysts. Bond traders continue viewing rallies with skepticism, treating moves higher as opportunities to sell rather than trends to follow. The technical ceiling remains critical; any move below 4.40 percent on the 10-year would signal meaningful momentum, but the Fed's hawkish tone keeps investors cautious. For originators, this sideways churn means lock-in periods should remain tight until market direction clarifies. Congress sent the largest housing bill in decades to President Trump's desk Wednesday, with overwhelming bipartisan support that suggests swift executive action. The 21st Century Road to Housing Act passed the House 358–32 after clearing the Senate 85–5 on Monday, addressing the nation's acute housing shortage estimated at over 4 million units. The measure focuses on boosting supply and restricting large investor purchases while streamlining development processes in key markets. Trump has signaled his support, making a signature likely within days. For mortgage originators, expanded housing supply could eventually increase purchase volumes, though near-term policy implementation remains unclear. Two Harbors postponed its shareholder vote for a fourth time, delaying until July 2 after proxy filings revealed 54 percent investor opposition to the CrossCountry Mortgage deal at 12 dollars per share plus a stub dividend. The board has extended the timeline to win over skeptical shareholders, though 47 of 53 required regulatory approvals are secured. United Wholesale Mortgage still offers 12.50 dollars cash or a lower stock alternative worth approximately 5.55 dollars per share in UWMC stock. If the vote succeeds July 2, closing is anticipated in August. The delay signals investor concerns about deal valuation and highlights ongoing consolidation pressure in the mortgage banking sector. The Mortgage Bankers Association released research warning that housing supply may soon outpace demand as demographic tailwinds fade and new construction continues. Slowing household formation driven by aging populations, lower fertility rates, and reduced immigration could shrink demand precisely as inventory expands across multiple markets. Seller concessions hit record highs this spring, already signaling softening affordability pressures. If construction remains elevated while household formation slows, some markets face price pressure and lower origination volumes. Originators should monitor inventory trends by geography, as supply-demand dynamics will increasingly determine regional profitability and purchase pipeline strength. Equities rebounded modestly as Treasury yields fell on easing inflation concerns, though artificial intelligence spending remains the focal point ahead of Micron Technology's earnings announcement. The dollar strengthened on safe-haven demand, pushing crude oil below 75 dollars per barrel as tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz with transponders active, signaling reduced geopolitical risk. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures rose slightly, but tech sector volatility persists, with traders bracing for disappointing AI guidance from major chipmakers. Lower crude prices pushed U.S. diesel below 5 dollars per gallon for the first time since mid-March, easing transportation cost pressures. For mortgage lenders, equity volatility affects wholesale funding availability and investor appetite for mortgage-backed securities. CertifID acquired CloseSimple, combining fraud prevention with closing automation to address two critical pain points for title companies and lenders simultaneously. The deal pairs CertifID's track record of blocking over 283 million dollars in fraud and recovering 132 million dollars for victims with CloseSimple's workflow and portal automation. This follows CertifID's 2025 acquisition of payments platform Paymints, signaling a broader strategy to bundle security, payments, and transaction management under one platform. Digital closing infrastructure increasingly influences loan production costs and customer experience metrics. For mortgage originators evaluating technology vendors, integrated automation stacks may reduce operational risk while accelerating closing cycles. **Locking vs Floating** Bonds remain sideways with no clear bullish underpinnings; traders treat rallies with skepticism after May 28 marked the last meaningful move higher. The week's high yields are slightly lower than those seen two weeks ago, which themselves improved from mid-May levels. Rate ceilings and floors matter more than daily noise; monitoring the 10-year yield ceiling around 4.45 percent helps distinguish true momentum from noise. **Today's Events** MBA mortgage applications rose 1.0 percent for the week ending June 19, driven by a 3 percent increase in refinance activity (17 percent above year-ago levels). Building permits and housing starts for May are due. New home sales for May arrive later today. A 5-year Treasury note auction ($70 billion) occurs at 1 p.m. Federal Reserve Governor Cook speaks at 2 p.m. **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.32 | 0.33 | | 5.5 | 100.32 | 0.23 | | 6.0 | 102.12 | 0.19 | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.66 | 0.30 | | 5.5 | 100.43 | 0.16 | | 6.0 | 102.08 | 0.14 | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2yr | 4.161 | 99.694 | -0.037 | | 3yr | 4.171 | 99.873 | -0.047 | | 5yr | 4.210 | 99.619 | -0.059 | | 7yr | 4.309 | 99.644 | -0.065 | | 10yr | 4.428 | 99.575 | -0.070 | | 30yr | 4.872 | 102.009 | -0.075 |

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Mortgage Today (AM) - 06/23/26

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June 23, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 06/23/2026** Tech stocks tanked overnight as Wall Street questions whether AI spending hype is justified, dragging down equity futures and shifting focus back to fixed income. The Nasdaq 100 futures fell 2.9% with semiconductor giants like SK Hynix and Samsung sliding over 10%, while the broader selloff pulled S&P 500 contracts down 1.3%. This pullback follows a spectacular first-half rally that left valuations stretched and retail investors nervous. Meanwhile, Treasuries found relief as traders dialed back rate-hike expectations, with the 10-year yield dropping 2.2 basis points to 4.49%. Agency MBS prices ticked higher on the equity weakness, posting gains of roughly an eighth of a point. The U.S. Senate passed the bipartisan 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act with strong momentum toward House passage later this week, aiming to lower housing costs and restrict institutional investors from outbidding families. The legislation, which pairs supply-side reforms with restrictions on Wall Street home buying, represents a rare moment of agreement in Congress driven partly by midterm election concerns. JPMorganChase released a policy brief showing how innovative construction methods including modular and manufactured homes can slash building costs by 20-30% and timelines by 30-50%, addressing the affordability crisis. Key state examples like Maryland, Colorado, and Texas are testing zoning reforms, building code changes, and permitting streamlining to enable faster housing development. For mortgage lenders, this legislative momentum signals potential demand shifts as supply increases and affordability improves. A notable disconnect emerged in bond markets as the 10-year Treasury weakened while related assets diverged, reinforcing a bearish technical picture despite modest intraday gains. The bond market remains unwilling to break through key technical support floors, keeping the "bearish until proven bullish" narrative alive for lock-and-float traders. Heavy stock selling is providing some support to MBS and Treasuries, but this relief appears fragile given the geopolitical backdrop and rate-hike concerns. Treasury auctions today include $69 billion in 2-year notes, which will test demand after recent auctions showed notable tailing. The economic calendar features ADP employment data at 8:15 AM and preliminary June PMIs at 9:45 AM, though neither is expected to move rates significantly. The AI adoption gap is widening rapidly across the mortgage industry, with most lenders still in pilot phase while a select few are operationalizing AI at scale. According to MISMO leadership, the difference between workflow acceleration (doing tasks faster) and operational intelligence (making better decisions at scale) will separate winners from losers over the next three to five years. Lenders experimenting with tools are missing the bigger opportunity: redesigning business processes around AI capabilities. This distinction matters for competitive positioning as the industry evolves beyond proof-of-concept stages. For originators and servicers, the message is clear—moving from testing to implementation determines survival. Iran sanctions easing through a temporary U.S. Treasury waiver created initial upward pressure on bond yields, though actual oil market impact remains modest with Brent trading around $77.30 per barrel. The geopolitical uncertainty from negotiations between the U.S. and Iran in Switzerland created volatility early in the week but has since settled as traders focus on economic data and Fed rhetoric. With Chair Kevin Warsh's recent hawkish commentary on inflation fighting, markets shifted expectations upward on rate hikes, pressuring long-duration assets like technology stocks and extending MBS duration risk. The Fed's dot plot projections added to rate-hike concerns despite the central bank cutting 175 basis points since mid-2024. Mortgage originators should monitor next week's PCE inflation report closely, as it represents the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Market positioning favors mid-stack MBS coupons over higher-duration securities as investors adopt a "wait-and-see" stance toward rate decisions and geopolitical news. Despite MBS appearing attractive relative to investment-grade corporate bonds on a relative value basis, participants remain cautious given double uncertainty from Fed policy and global tensions. The bull-steepening Treasury curve reflects the equity selloff and reduced rate-hike expectations, providing some relief for mortgage servicers and portfolio managers. Mortgage lender hiring remains robust with firms like EPM experiencing record growth and actively recruiting underwriters, account managers, and entire teams. Verification and employment validation technology continues advancing, with platforms like Truework and Kind Lending offering cost savings of 20-50% on income documentation. **Locking vs Floating** Bond weakness persists despite modest intraday strength as the market refuses to challenge key technical support levels. Early-week momentum turned bearish as traders reassessed Fed rate-hike odds and digested hawkish Chair Warsh commentary. Lock strategy remains prudent until bond technicals prove strength, while floaters expose borrowers to lingering geopolitical and inflation risks. **Today's Events** 8:15 AM — ADP Employment Change (June preliminary) 9:45 AM — Markit Purchasing Managers' Indices (June preliminary) 11:30 AM — 6-Week Treasury Bill Auction 1:00 PM — 2-Year Treasury Note Auction ($69 billion) **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |

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Mortgage Today (AM) - 06/18/26

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June 18, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 06/18/2026** Trump's Iran deal signature late Wednesday sparked an overnight bond rally that mortgage originators are watching closely, as UMBS securities climbed back into positive territory by mid-morning trading. The 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 4.44 percent—down 5 basis points from Wednesday's close at 4.49 percent—providing temporary relief after Tuesday's post-Warsh sell-off rattled the MBS market. GNMA 5.0 securities outperformed UMBS, rising 41 basis points to 98.69, signaling continued demand for government-backed pools. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's debut meeting sent mixed signals: he held rates steady at 3.5-3.75 percent but signaled the central bank remains laser-focused on inflation without committing to a rate path. Bond traders are now pricing in a 25-basis-point rate hike as soon as October, reflecting Warsh's hawkish inflation rhetoric. Jobless claims came in at 226,000—exactly in line with forecasts—while continuing claims ticked up slightly to 1.81 million, suggesting the labor market remains steady but not accelerating. The Philadelphia Fed's June manufacturing index surprised to the upside at 10.3 versus forecasts of 10.0, but prices paid surged to 53.20, marking a significant jump in inflationary pressure at the regional level. These economic readings keep the Fed's attention on inflation rather than employment, reinforcing Warsh's message that rate cuts are off the table. For mortgage sellers, a data-dependent Fed means every CPI print and jobs report will swing Treasury yields and MBS valuations sharply. Markets are closed tomorrow in observance of Juneteenth, removing a full trading day from the week. Geopolitical de-escalation in the Middle East—the US-Iran memorandum of understanding restores Strait of Hormuz traffic within 30 days—is easing oil-supply anxiety and pushing crude prices lower. West Texas Intermediate slid to $75.29 per barrel on the Iran deal news, helping gasoline prices dip below $4 per gallon for the first time since March. Lower energy costs could theoretically reduce inflation pressures, but the Fed and markets are skeptical that oil alone will cool the sticky 4.2 percent inflation still running well above the 2 percent target. Any sustained relief at the pump may provide modest tailwinds to mortgage demand if consumers feel less financial pressure at the checkout counter. Warsh's refusal to provide forward guidance leaves traders guessing about the Fed's next move, creating intraday volatility in MBS. Technical levels matter right now for hedging and positioning decisions, so originators should watch the 10-year yield's 4.42 percent floor—where bonds rejected hard on Wednesday morning before recovering most losses. The 2-year yield, however, lost more ground than longer maturities, steepening the yield curve slightly as traders price in eventual rate hikes while longer bonds rally on disinflationary hopes tied to artificial intelligence and tech productivity gains. UMBS 5.0 settled at 98.29 (up 29 basis points), while 6.0 coupons climbed to 102.02, indicating strong repricing across the coupon stack. If the 10-year breaks back above 4.50 percent, expect MBS to weaken sharply, particularly shorter-duration coupons. Conversely, a hold below 4.45 percent keeps the overnight recovery intact. **Locking vs Floating** Economic data remains mixed: labor markets are holding steady (jobless claims on forecast), but regional inflation signals are flashing red (Philly Fed prices paid surged 11 percent month-over-month). Rate-hike bets have shifted from "unlikely" to "possible by fall" after Warsh's hawkish debut, making float positioning risky for borrowers who assumed the Fed was done. Originators should counsel rate-sensitive customers to lock sooner rather than later, as the cost to float is rising with each inflation print and each Fed speaker emphasizing inflation discipline. The Iran deal may buy two to three weeks of relative calm, but the technical rejection at 4.42 percent suggests bond market confidence remains fragile. **Today's Events** Jobless Claims (Jun/13): 226K vs. 225K forecast, 229K prior Continued Claims (Jun/06): 1,810K vs. 1,800K forecast, 1,795K prior Philly Fed Business Index (Jun): 10.3 vs. 10.0 forecast, -0.4 prior Philly Fed Prices Paid (Jun): 53.20 vs. no forecast, 47.90 prior Conference Board Leading Index (May): 0.1% MoM (released 10:00 AM) **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.29 | 0.29 | | 5.5 | 100.3 | 0.22 | | 6.0 | 102.02 | 0.08 | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | |---:|---:|---:| | 5.0 | 98.69 | 0.41 | | 5.5 | 100.46 | 0.31 | | 6.0 | 101.87 | 0.21 | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | |---|---:|---:|---:| | 2 yr | 4.168 | 99.443 | -0.016 | | 3 yr | 4.181 | 98.099 | -0.032 | | 5 yr | 4.22 | 98.459 | -0.04 | | 7 yr | 4.319 | 99.587 | -0.048 | | 10 yr | 4.44 | 97.479 | -0.045 | | 30 yr | 4.882 | 97.932 | -0.046 | Subscribe free to receive market updates each morning at WellThatMakesSense.com.

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