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Mortgage Today (AM) - 07/14/26

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July 14, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 07/14/2026** June inflation data delivered a bombshell this morning, with the consumer price index falling 0.4% month-over-month—the first decline since 2020—and core CPI flat at 0.0% versus expectations for 0.2% growth. This sharply better-than-expected report instantly propelled bond markets higher, sending 10-year Treasury yields down over 7 basis points and UMBS securities up more than 3/8ths of a point by midday. The 30-year UMBS 5.5 coupon jumped to 99.73, up 0.33 from the previous close, while year-over-year readings improved to 3.5% headline and 2.6% core—both below forecasts. Supercore inflation, which excludes housing costs, posted its first negative reading in over a year at -0.2%, a crucial sign that underlying price pressures are cooling. Market participants immediately reassessed Federal Reserve rate-hike odds downward, recognizing that this inflation trajectory reduces pressure on the central bank to tighten further. GNMA 30-year securities mirrored the rally, with the 5.5 coupon trading at 100.27, up 0.28 from yesterday's close, as mortgage investors shifted capital into agency mortgage-backed securities. The broader Treasury curve responded with short-end yields declining more sharply than longer maturities, reflecting the market's recalibration of near-term Fed policy expectations. Two-year Treasury yields dropped 8.5 basis points to 4.19%, while the 10-year settled around 4.57% after opening at 4.61% yesterday. This steepening in the yield curve benefits mortgage originators by improving the spread between wholesale funding costs and retail mortgage pricing. The benign inflation print also temporarily overshadowed earlier geopolitical concerns about Middle East tensions and rising oil prices, allowing markets to focus on the underlying economic fundamentals. Mortgage originators should recognize that today's CPI relief opens a brief window for competitive rate locks before market sentiment shifts again. Floating borrowers who held through recent weakness now face a difficult decision: locking in near-term gains or gambling on further Fed rate cuts. The sharp intraday rally in MBS pricing suggests that higher-coupon pools offer better value than lower coupons currently, as investors pay down principal and refinancing convexity improves. Correspondents and wholesale lenders will likely tighten pricing by 50 to 75 basis points on conforming and jumbo products within hours, so originating teams should move quickly to capitalize on improved margins. This is not a time to hesitate; inflation surprises of this magnitude can reverse just as fast as they arrive. **Locking vs Floating** After months of asymmetric floating risk, today's inflation print handed floating borrowers a genuine relief rally. The market's rapid repricing lower suggests that further Fed rate hikes are off the table in the near term, removing one of the primary risks that had made floating loans dangerous. However, geopolitical tensions remain elevated, and oil prices continue to climb, meaning another supply shock could easily reverse today's gains. Lock-friendly borrowers should act decisively, as this window of favorable repricing will not remain open for long. Floating borrowers who stay in the market beyond this afternoon are essentially betting that inflation will remain under control despite ongoing Middle East disruptions and elevated oil prices above $80 per barrel. **Today's Events** m/m CORE CPI (Jun): 0.0% vs 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous m/m Headline CPI (Jun): -0.4% vs -0.1% forecast, 0.5% previous y/y CORE CPI (Jun): 2.6% vs 2.8% forecast, 2.9% previous y/y Headline CPI (Jun): 3.5% vs 3.8% forecast, 4.2% previous **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 97.48 | 0.39 | | 5.5 | 99.76 | 0.36 | | 6.0 | 101.67 | 0.24 | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.06 | 0.42 | | 5.5 | 100.27 | 0.28 | | 6.0 | 102.27 | 0.26 | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 4.188 | 99.643 | -0.085 | | 10 yr | 4.574 | 98.414 | -0.041 | | 30 yr | 5.089 | 98.637 | -0.018 |

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Mortgage Today (PM) - 07/13/26

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July 13, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 07/13/2026** Markets took a sharp dive as geopolitical tensions and Federal Reserve commentary whipsawed bond investors into the red. MBS prices fell 3/8ths point by late afternoon while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed 5.6 basis points to 4.615%, marking the weakest levels of the day. Fed speaker Christopher Waller's comments and renewed fighting near the Strait of Hormuz both triggered sharp selling pressure throughout the session. For mortgage originators, this environment favors locking rates now rather than floating, given the clear downward momentum in securities pricing. A landmark academic study shows that UWM's 2021 "All-In" ultimatum—which forced brokers to choose between working exclusively with United Wholesale or Rocket Mortgage—created surprising spillovers beyond the targeted lenders. Research from University of Kentucky finance professor Spencer Stone found that competing wholesale lenders immediately cut rates by an average of 5 basis points, a discount that lasted throughout the four-month study period. On a $300,000 mortgage, that translates to over $500 in present-value savings for borrowers. The most intriguing finding: borrowers in markets with little direct overlap between UWM and Rocket still received rate cuts, suggesting lenders couldn't safely target discounts by geography without inviting disparate-impact scrutiny. The antitrust case against Optimal Blue suffered a major blow as defendants successfully eliminated 17 of 29 originally named companies through coordinated dismissal motions. The Mendez v. Optimal Blue lawsuit accused the nation's largest lenders and the dominant pricing engine provider of operating like a cartel to artificially inflate rates and fees. Defendants argued that Optimal Blue's analytics tools provide only backward-looking, anonymized data that even the Federal Reserve uses—not instructions on how to price loans. With only 9 lenders remaining as defendants and trial not scheduled before 2029, the case has lost significant momentum. Nonbank servicers dominated mortgage servicing rights transfers in the first quarter, accounting for 64.2% of all purchase activity as $137.8 billion in unpaid principal balance changed hands. Carrington Mortgage Services led buyers with $36.8 billion in acquisitions, while PennyMac emerged as the quarter's largest seller at $24.2 billion. Lower-coupon loans from the 2020 and 2021 vintages—particularly those carrying rates between 2.5% and 3.49%—were the most actively traded, reflecting originator appetite for refinanced portfolio seasoning. This MSR fluidity signals continued consolidation among nonbank servicers and a shift away from bank servicing dominance. The Ginnie Mae MBS portfolio reached $2.97 trillion as of June 30, with total issuance for the quarter hitting $53.9 billion. First American faces a new class-action lawsuit in California over its DataTree product, which aggregates homeowner and mortgage data for subscribers at various access levels. The FHFA also signaled plans to remove "reputational harm" as a basis for suspending firms and individuals doing business with the GSEs and Federal Home Loan Banks. These regulatory refinements continue reshaping the operational landscape for servicers and data providers across the industry. Subscribe for free daily mortgage market insights at WellThatMakesSense.com. **Locking vs Floating** Floating rates carries asymmetric risk today with no clear catalyst for improvement. The combination of weaker MBS pricing and rising Treasury yields created a decidedly unfriendly float environment unless you're willing to catch falling knives. Tamer inflation data or a peaceful shift in geopolitical tensions could eventually reverse course, but there's no reliable indicator that either outcome is more likely than not. Lock now to avoid additional downside exposure in this choppy market. **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 97.09 | -0.46 | | 5.5 | 99.41 | -0.37 | | 6.0 | 101.43 | -0.26 | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 97.64 | -0.51 | | 5.5 | 99.99 | -0.28 | | 6.0 | 102.01 | -0.12 | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2yr | 4.273 | 99.482 | 0.063 | | 3yr | 4.318 | 99.463 | 0.074 | | 5yr | 4.377 | 98.879 | 0.072 | | 7yr | 4.495 | 98.545 | 0.071 | | 10yr | 4.616 | 98.09 | 0.056 | | 30yr | 5.107 | 98.362 | 0.049 | Market Data

Mortgage Today (AM) - 07/13/26

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July 13, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 07/13/2026** Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are pushing yields higher and MBS prices lower as the U.S. and Iran escalate military strikes around the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil jumped overnight, sending the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.59 percent and shaking equity markets with semiconductor stocks leading a selloff. MBS investors face renewed weakness, with the 30-year UMBS 5.0 trading at 97.44, down 0.12 from the prior close. Bond market technicians view the 4.59 ceiling as critical resistance after last week's eight-basis-point move higher. While financial markets are treating the escalation as negotiation theater rather than perpetual war, the inflation implications of higher oil prices are keeping duration traders on edge. Financial engineers warn that energy-linked inflation remains the bigger concern than the geopolitical event itself. Oil's seven-percent weekly gain pushed crude above $74 per barrel and drove longer-term yields upward despite Friday's oversold technical setup. Treasury demand at last week's auctions signaled investor appetite for duration, suggesting current yield levels may be acceptable to buyers stepping in. The June Federal Open Market Committee Minutes indicated Fed officials remain data-dependent and skeptical of near-term rate hikes without persistent inflation evidence. Lenders should monitor this week's Consumer Price Index report and Chair Warsh's congressional testimony for clues on policy direction. The 10-year Treasury's ability to hold above 4.59 will dictate whether repricing pressure eases for mortgage originators or accelerates. Rate-sensitive lenders who did not adjust their sheets for Friday's weakness face asymmetric risk on Monday morning without new bond strength. Risk-tolerant originators continue defending their float stance, betting that technical ceilings and oversold conditions will cap additional upside in yields. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to five-week lows, underscoring supply chain anxiety even if markets believe the conflict remains manageable. Mortgage pricing will remain volatile until CPI data and Fed testimony resolve uncertainty around inflation trajectory and monetary policy. Capital markets commentary from leading analysts suggests the selloff in South Korean chipmakers reflects broader AI trade fatigue rather than fundamental economic deterioration. A shift out of mega-cap technology stocks and into traditional sectors could benefit fixed-income buyers seeking stable duration in a sideways market. The Bloomberg report noted that traders are positioning for possible Fed rate hikes as soon as September, contrary to recent Market expectations for a summer pause. Yet the Fed's continued transparency in policy discussions and the June Minutes' dovish lean suggest officials are in no rush to tighten further. Mortgage originators should prepare for continued volatility until inflation data confirms whether energy-price shocks will persist. The Chrisman Commentary highlighted the passage of the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, which supports down payment and closing cost assistance for first-time homebuyers. This legislation reinforces the industry's focus on affordability solutions and could expand origination opportunities in the FHA and DPA space. Meanwhile, MISMO's new white paper on eNotes and eClosing guidance offers lenders a roadmap for digitizing mortgage workflows to reduce costs and speed liquidity. Technology providers are racing to implement UAD 3.6 compliance and AI-powered appraisal tools before industry adoption accelerates. Non-QM and HELOC lenders continue offering July promotions, with pricing improvements of up to 25 basis points for niche borrower segments. Pipeline management remains critical as the mortgage market navigates geopolitical uncertainty and seasonal summer slowdowns in origination volume. Major banks including JPMorgan Chase, TD Bank, and Zillow Home Loans are actively recruiting high-performing loan officers, signaling confidence in pipeline growth through year-end. Employment trends across the industry show demand for experienced originators, appraisal managers, and operations leaders who can drive technology modernization. The Chrisman Job Board and industry conferences including the Western Secondary Market Conference in August provide networking and hiring platforms for growth-focused lenders. Mortgage professionals should capitalize on promotional pricing and emerging talent opportunities while yields remain elevated and market dislocations persist. **Locking vs Floating** Mortgage originators who failed to reprice for Friday's weakness face slight asymmetric risk favoring rate locks on Monday. The 10-year Treasury's technical ceiling at 4.59 percent offers a defensive level if bond buyers step in and stabilize yields. Risk-tolerant lenders defending their float stance should recognize that geopolitical catalysts like Middle East escalations are unpredictable and could trigger sharp intraday reversals. Shipping disruptions and crude oil strength justify caution, but market participants believe the conflict remains manageable rather than systemic. Lenders with tighter rate sheets should consider modest repricing to account for weekend weakness unless news flow stabilizes by market open. **Today's Events** No scheduled economic data releases are listed for today. The week begins quietly but Fed Chair Warsh's congressional testimony and the June Consumer Price Index report are due tomorrow. Additional data points this week include PPI, jobless claims, housing data, industrial production, and the Fed's Beige Book. Short-duration Treasury auctions and remarks from Fed members Bowman and Waller are also on the calendar. **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |

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