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Mortgage Today (PM) - 09/28/26

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September 28, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 09/28/2026** Bond weakness accelerated Monday as Treasury yields jumped to 19-year highs on geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation concerns. The 10-year yield climbed 7.6 basis points to 5.24%, with the benchmark 30-year bond rising to 5.55%, the highest level since 2004. UMBS 6.0 prices dropped 0.64 points while GNMA securities tracked similarly, signaling broader weakness across mortgage-backed securities amid elevated oil prices and concerns about prolonged Middle East conflict. Major banks are rolling out incentives to compete for borrowers as mortgage activity slows and affordability stretches beyond reach. Chase launched a limited-time rate sale offering up to 25 basis points off through October 4, while Bank of America is offering grants up to $17,500 toward down payments and closing costs. Wells Fargo is rewarding existing customers with rate discounts based on account balances, and Navy Federal introduced a no-refi rate drop program for members with six on-time payments, signaling industry-wide concern about origination volume. The wholesale channel is contracting as Eleven Mortgage exits its correspondent and wholesale businesses in 60 days, leaving broker loans still in the pipeline. Benchmark Mortgage announced aggressive lock policy changes including a flat 100 basis point extension fee versus the former 2 basis point daily rate. This marks another casualty in a consolidating industry where wholesale platforms continue to wind down operations amid rising capital pressures and reduced profitability in the current rate environment. UWM is raising at least $400 million through a rights offering as the wholesale giant pushes ahead with broker growth and capital restructuring. Oaktree Capital and the Ishbia family are backstopping the 200 million-share offering, reinforcing investor commitment to the channel's expansion despite industry headwinds. The move signals confidence in wholesale mortgage banking but comes amid broader market uncertainty and competitive pressures from both retail and correspondent channels. Mortgage industry practices around producer compensation reveal the "Moneyball problem" of measuring the wrong metrics when evaluating LO value. Volume-based rankings obscure true profitability, as $100 million in production from one originator may generate vastly different economics than the same volume from another depending on required support, pricing concessions, and pull-through rates. Stratmor argues lenders should track contribution dollars at the loan, LO, and branch level to understand actual profitability rather than relying solely on production volume comparisons. NFM Lending confirmed unauthorized access to customer data after a ransomware group claimed it stole 2.5 terabytes of information including Social Security numbers and financial accounts around September 7. A proposed class action lawsuit was filed September 16 in Maryland federal court, alleging the company failed to notify affected customers in a timely manner. The breach illustrates escalating cybersecurity risks in the mortgage industry and the critical importance of rapid incident response and customer notification protocols. **Locking vs Floating** Investors should continue waiting for stronger bond market signals before adjusting lock-and-float strategies. While weak economic data could trigger rate recovery, stronger data will likely push yields higher, adding to recent upward momentum. Until bonds demonstrate genuine rally conviction independent of forced selling, cautious positioning remains prudent given the conflicting technical signals and macro uncertainty. **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | |---:|---:|---:| | 5.5 | 95.81 | -0.8 | | 6.0 | 98.37 | -0.64 | | 6.5 | 100.43 | -0.61 | **US Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | |---|---:|---:|---:| | 2 yr | 4.926 | 99.668 | 0.067 | | 3 yr | 5.012 | 98.247 | 0.073 | | 5 yr | 5.072 | 99.688 | 0.079 | | 7 yr | 5.151 | 99.121 | 0.076 | | 10 yr | 5.24 | 95.262 | 0.076 | | 30 yr | 5.549 | 93.833 | 0.06 | Stay current on mortgage markets and industry strategy—subscribe free at WellThatMakesSense.com. Market Data

Mortgage Today (AM) - 09/28/26

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September 28, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 09/28/2026** MBS securities took a beating early Monday as Treasury yields surged to two-decade highs, with the 10-year climbing to 5.23% and the 30-year near 5.55%, extending what increasingly looks like a permanent shift higher. UMBS 30-year coupons ranged from 95.75 (5.5% coupon) down 0.55 points to 100.83 (6.5% coupon) down 0.41, while GNMA 30-year coupons showed relative resilience with smaller intraday declines across the board. The catalyst remains a combination of hawkish Fed communication, resilient economic data, persistent inflation expectations, and a lack of willing bond buyers, with the market assigning roughly a 70% probability to an October rate hike. The real question facing lenders is whether Friday's modest rally—driven more by valuation bargain-hunting than conviction—signals we're finally out of the woods or merely a correction before further selling. Extension and liquidity risks have exploded as wider basis spreads, weaker specified pools, and higher primary rates force originators to navigate blown-out rate sheets and elevated trading levels. Affordability is reaching a breaking point, with consumer sentiment at four-month lows and one-year inflation expectations jumping to 4.6%. Buydown mortgages have emerged as a critical tool, now representing roughly $45 billion or about 2% of the Ginnie Mae II single-family universe, particularly in FHA and VA lending where they account for two-thirds of issuance. The product temporarily reduces borrower rates for one to three years while absorbing costs through sellers, builders, or lenders, attracting stronger-credit borrowers with FICO scores averaging 20 points higher than comparable loans. The Federal Reserve faces an uncomfortable dilemma: how much economic weakness will it tolerate before changing course if inflation remains the priority? Historical precedent from 2022–2023 suggests the Fed may tolerate considerable stress in housing, equities, and rate-sensitive sectors while maintaining restrictive policy. However, competing arguments suggest current inflation stems less from excess domestic demand and more from temporary supply-side forces like tariffs, geopolitical shocks, and AI investment buildout, while wage growth slows and housing-price gains remain modest. If that's true, further rate hikes could damage the economy without addressing underlying inflation drivers, meaning the market will search for visible economic cracks that finally convince the Fed to pivot. This week's economic calendar includes core PCE inflation, consumer income and spending, JOLTS, ADP, and ISM manufacturing reports, with Friday's employment data potentially the most consequential. Payroll growth is expected to slow to roughly 95,000 jobs in September while unemployment holds near 4.1%, suggesting labor softening even as spending and income remain relatively strong. Energy inflation tied to the Iran conflict, particularly record diesel prices, threatens to intensify cost-of-living pressures across transportation and production sectors. Consumer confidence deterioration combined with rising inflation expectations creates a fragile backdrop for the housing market heading into what mortgage originators had hoped would be a more stable autumn season. Mortgage industry consolidation concerns continue to percolate, with technology playing an increasingly central role in how smaller lenders compete with larger platforms. Conferences scheduled for this week and next—including MBA's Compliance and Risk Management Conference, the Virginia Mortgage Banker's Association Annual Convention, and MBA Annual 2026—provide networking opportunities and insight into shifting competitive dynamics. Industry discussions focus heavily on AI governance, loan origination technology, and how lenders can streamline borrower experiences while maintaining compliance in an increasingly complex market. The emerging consensus suggests that companies struggling with the build-versus-buy decision for technology solutions need clarity on which tools drive strategic advantage versus which are table-stakes requirements. Loan officers and branch managers continue to evaluate where they can build their businesses most effectively, with family-owned mortgage companies emphasizing autonomy and direct leadership access as competitive differentiators. Margin management tools and pricing analytics have become essential for retail channel lenders attempting to balance competitive pricing with controlled loan exceptions, particularly as spreads have widened and production coupons have become less attractive. Lenders searching for buydown opportunities or early-life prepayment protection in MBS pools are finding interesting pockets as they seek to bridge the affordability gap created by elevated home prices and high mortgage rates. The next few weeks will test whether originators can execute effectively while managing rate volatility and protecting their profitability as economic headwinds build. **Locking vs Floating** Market technicians face a pivotal decision as a decent bond rally Friday raised questions about whether it represents genuine recovery or merely a correction before further selling. The MBS decline of 11 ticks and 10-year yield increase of 4.8 basis points suggest weakness persists despite token improvement, and experts recommend waiting for stronger, more conviction-driven rallies before adjusting lock-float positioning. The extreme level of rate-sheet deterioration creates high risk-reward dynamics in the days ahead, meaning disciplined originators should hold protective positions and monitor whether the market demonstrates sustained appetite to move higher without heavy-selling catalysts driving moves. **Today's Events** No economic data releases scheduled for September 28, 2026. Markets remain focused on forward guidance ahead of this week's economic reports and next week's employment data. **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.5 | 95.75 | -0.55 | | 6.0 | 98.44 | -0.4 | | 5.5 | 96.28 | -0.32 | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 4.922 | 99.676 | 0.062 | | 3 yr | 5.005 | 98.266 | 0.073 | | 5 yr | 5.066 | 99.713 | 0.075 | | 7 yr | 5.148 | 99.137 | 0.075 | | 10 yr | 5.234 | 95.309 | 0.073 | | 30 yr | 5.547 | 93.871 | 0.053 |

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Mortgage Today (AM) - 09/25/26

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September 25, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 09/25/2026** Mortgage payment relief arrived in August as median monthly payments fell to $2,162, down from $2,175 in July, while household earnings climbed 4.1% year-over-year to outpace the 2.9% payment increase. The Mortgage Bankers Association's Purchase Applications Payment Index dropped to 154.3, marking a 0.6% decline that signals improving affordability even as 27 states reported payment declines. FHA borrowers benefited most with median payments falling to $1,856, though conventional borrowers saw their payments rise slightly to $2,188. This data arrives amid broader market pressures where Treasury yields have climbed nearly 44 basis points this month alone. Core capital expenditure data crushed expectations at 1.6% versus a 0.5% forecast, signaling persistent inflation pressures that keep the Federal Reserve in a challenging position as it balances growth signals against stubborn price persistence. Durable goods orders came in flat at 0% when economists predicted a decline of 0.4%, suggesting manufacturing resilience despite rising interest rate headwinds. The combination of stronger-than-expected inflation data and solid economic output is pushing the market to price in a prolonged higher-for-longer rate environment. Morgan Stanley economists now expect the Fed to stop hiking after December and March—about one hike short of market expectations—but inflation readings like today's suggest the path remains uncertain. The housing market is shifting leverage toward buyers as new home sales rebounded 6.4% to reach an 684,000 annualized rate in August, the highest level since December 2025, while median prices fell 5.8% year-over-year to $393,700. Inventory of new homes held steady at 483,000 units with an elevated 8.5-month supply, though just 112,000 homes are completed and ready for immediate occupancy. The Midwest led regional gains with an 84.9% monthly jump, while the Northeast and West posted sharp declines, signaling uneven demand across geographies. Existing home inventory climbed 46% from 2023 levels, forcing sellers to adjust pricing with nearly one in five homes receiving price cuts in August—the highest share for that month since 2020. HouseCanary received court approval to continue operations in Chapter 11 bankruptcy, allowing the data and appraisal services company to maintain customer support while it restructures and pursues a potentially $175 million claim against Rocket Close from a March 2026 jury award. The filing came after the company defaulted on a $30 million loan, but debtor-in-possession financing now provides liquidity for operations, employee obligations, and customer programs. The bankruptcy could ripple through the market given Google's reliance on HouseCanary technology for its national home-listings program launched in June. Rocket Companies disputes the jury award and plans to appeal, creating uncertainty around both companies' near-term strategic direction. PLACE's acquisition of Maxwell—a mortgage fintech serving over 400 financial institutions and supporting $130 billion in annual mortgage transactions—expands PLACE's origination capabilities by adding point-of-sale, business intelligence, fulfillment, and private-label solutions to its real estate platform. Maxwell touches nearly 10% of U.S. mortgage originations and operates independently under CEO John Paasonen with over 100 employees now joining PLACE. The deal follows PLACE's August purchase of Radian Group's real estate services business and a pending acquisition of Radian's title operations expected to close in the fourth quarter. This consolidation trend reflects the industry's ongoing push toward integrated platforms. The 10-year Treasury yield is currently trading at 5.171%, down 3.5 basis points from the previous close, while UMBS mortgage-backed securities are showing modest strength with the 6.0 coupon up 0.32 points to 98.52. Market participants are grappling with robust economic data, persistent inflation pressures, and an enormous supply of U.S. government debt that continues to pressure yields higher throughout the month. The persistent cheapening across the coupon stack and disappointing long-end Treasury auctions suggest demand may be testing its limits, with markets now asking who will be the buyer of size at these levels. Fixed-income traders have rapidly adjusted projections to price in a much higher-for-longer Fed path with the terminal rate approaching 4.86%, nearly 100 basis points above the Fed's own September projections. **Locking vs Floating** Mortgage originators face a challenging environment where catching falling knives before they land remains dangerous, despite the past 48 hours of selling pressure. Strong economic data and persistent inflation suggest Treasury yields may have further room to climb before bonds become attractive purely on return-to-value metrics. The key question isn't whether this is the bottom, but rather whether borrowers lock in current rates or continue floating in hopes of future relief that remains uncertain. **Today's Events** Core Capital Expenditure (August): 1.6% vs 0.5% forecast, 0.2% previous Durable Goods Orders (August): 0% vs -0.4% forecast, 1.1% previous Final September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (scheduled later today) Remarks from New York Fed President Williams and Kansas City Fed President Schmid **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.5 | 95.94 | 0.27 | | 6.0 | 98.52 | 0.32 | | 5.5 | 95.88 | 0.08 | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 4.894 | 99.729 | -0.031 | | 3 yr | 4.975 | 98.347 | -0.032 | | 5 yr | 5.033 | 99.855 | -0.021 | | 7 yr | 5.109 | 99.367 | -0.019 | | 10 yr | 5.188 | 95.649 | -0.013 | | 30 yr | 5.487 | 94.7 | 0.01 |

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