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Mortgage Today (AM) - 05/13/26

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May 13, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 05/13/2026** War headlines and auction concessions have pushed 10-year Treasury yields to their highest level in 10 months, signaling stronger headwinds for mortgage originators. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 1.4 basis points to 4.467 percent, while UMBS 30-year coupons showed minimal intraday movement across all coupon levels. GNMA 30-year securities similarly held steady, with the 6.0 coupon unchanged and lower coupons barely budging. Market volatility remains elevated due to geopolitical uncertainty, making it harder to establish reliable lock and float strategies in the near term. This selloff reflects broader bond market pressure rather than mortgage-specific weakness. Core inflation data beat expectations on the month, with headline CPI also running hotter than forecast, creating additional upward pressure on longer-dated yields. Core CPI rose 0.4 percent versus 0.3 percent expected and 0.2 percent prior, while year-over-year core inflation accelerated to 2.8 percent from 2.6 percent. Headline inflation on a monthly basis matched the 0.6 percent forecast but year-over-year readings climbed to 3.8 percent from 3.3 percent. The broader inflation story remains sticky despite some moderation from prior year comparisons. Originators should expect elevated rate volatility to persist through the upcoming week. The two-year Treasury dipped 1 basis point to 3.989 percent, suggesting some flattening across the shorter end of the curve despite the 10-year's sharp move higher. Mid-curve yields like the five-year and seven-year also moved modestly lower, with the five-year down 1 basis point to 4.124 percent. The 30-year Treasury remained flat at 5.026 percent, maintaining a wide spread versus the 10-year that reflects market uncertainty about long-term inflation and growth. Current pricing suggests bond traders are hedging against recession risks even as inflation data disappoint. The yield curve continues to signal mixed economic signals. **Locking vs Floating** Geopolitical tensions are creating unpredictable market swings that defy traditional rate forecast models. Short-term lock and float decisions should not be based on war headlines because volatility could move in either direction without warning or schedule. A peace agreement would likely provide some relief to rates compared to current levels, but timing such a resolution is impossible. Originators may want to consider the longer-term probability of de-escalation rather than making tactical decisions on daily newsflow. Hedging current pipeline positions is more prudent than betting on near-term direction during this period of elevated uncertainty. **Today's Events** Core CPI (April): 0.4% monthly vs. 0.3% forecast, 2.8% year-over-year vs. 2.7% forecast Headline CPI (April): 0.6% monthly vs. 0.6% forecast, 3.8% year-over-year vs. 3.7% forecast **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.17 | 0.03 | | 5.5 | 100.24 | 0.02 | | 6.0 | 101.94 | 0 | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.96 | 0.01 | | 5.5 | 100.52 | 0 | | 6.0 | 101.75 | 0.01 | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.989 | 99.784 | -0.001 | | 3 yr | 4.023 | 98.536 | -0.003 | | 5 yr | 4.124 | 98.886 | -0.001 | | 7 yr | 4.291 | 99.754 | -0.003 | | 10 yr | 4.467 | 97.267 | 0.014 | | 30 yr | 5.026 | 95.75 | 0 |

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Mortgage Today (PM) - 05/12/26

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May 12, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 05/12/2026** War headlines pushed bond markets to their worst levels in 10 months as geopolitical tensions triggered aggressive selling across both MBS and Treasuries. The 10-year yield climbed 5.2 basis points to 4.461 percent by late afternoon, while UMBS 5.0 coupons fell a full quarter point to 98.14. This morning's April CPI report showed core inflation at 0.4 percent month-over-month versus a 0.3 percent forecast, yet bonds initially shrugged off the data—the real damage came when war escalation comments hit the newswire. For mortgage originators, this sharp repricing increases negative reprice risk on pipeline, making lock decisions more urgent as volatility shows no signs of subsiding before next week. Volatility makes lock-float strategy nearly impossible to execute in the short term because geopolitical events don't follow a predictable schedule and could swing rates either direction. Longer-dated strategic thinking suggests that a peace deal—whenever it arrives—would likely push rates meaningfully lower from current levels, giving originators a window for future rate locks. The real question for your pipeline is whether you have enough rate lock cushion to survive another 4–5 days of headline risk without eating through your margins. Most originators should assume rates stay elevated unless we get genuine peace news, making today's repricing more of a ceiling than a temporary spike. Institutional Shareholder Services just recommended Two Harbors shareholders reject the CrossCountry Mortgage deal, adding pressure to a proxy fight that United Wholesale Mortgage is actively trying to win. UWM's latest offer of $12.50 per share in cash for elections now carries more weight because ISS raised questions about whether CrossCountry's "certainty narrative" actually protects shareholder value. The industry backdrop matters here—stretched valuations, tightening margins, and aggressive pricing during a mortgage surge mirror pre-2008 conditions, making deal certainty less certain than Two Harbors' board has argued. For loan officers, this drama highlights how quickly market fundamentals can shift and underscores the importance of locking rates while still available at known pricing levels. Lower rates earlier this spring drove refi volume to a four-year high while home prices posted their strongest quarterly gain in nearly two years according to ICE data. This combination gave loan officers a more balanced pipeline mix between purchase and refi business, improving overall profitability per loan. Technology platforms like MeridianLink are reporting record mortgage platform adoption as lenders scramble to improve efficiency and reduce costs in a margin-compressed environment. For originators, this trend means technology is becoming less of a competitive luxury and more of an operational necessity to stay profitable. Treasuries across the entire yield curve rose sharply, with the 2-year at 3.989 percent, the 5-year at 4.125 percent, and the 30-year climbing to 5.026 percent—all up 3–5 basis points during the session. GNMA 30-year coupons fell even harder than UMBS, reflecting both the war risk premium and aggressive short covering in high-coupon pools. The technical ceiling at 4.66 percent in the 10-year remains critical; any close above that level signals a breakdown in near-term support and probable acceleration toward 4.75 percent. Monitor your client communication carefully today because hotter inflation, higher oil prices above $100, and unresolved war risk create a perfect storm for upward rate pressure into month-end. **Locking vs Floating** War headlines dominate the short-term risk picture, making any lock-float strategy based on near-term technicals unreliable due to unpredictable geopolitical catalysts. In the long term, peace would likely deliver meaningful rate relief, but no one can forecast when that occurs. Most originators should assume current levels are sticky and lock any marginal pipelines to avoid negative repricing surprises over the next week. **Today's Events** m/m CORE CPI (Apr): 0.4% vs 0.3% forecast, 0.2% prior m/m Headline CPI (Apr): 0.6% vs 0.6% forecast, 0.9% prior y/y CORE CPI (Apr): 2.8% vs 2.7% forecast, 2.6% prior y/y Headline CPI (Apr): 3.8% vs 3.7% forecast, 3.3% prior **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.14 | -0.26 | | 5.5 | 100.22 | -0.13 | | 6.0 | 101.94 | -0.02 | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.95 | -0.32 | | 5.5 | 100.52 | -0.27 | | 6.0 | 101.75 | -0.16 | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.989 | 99.782 | 0.038 | | 3 yr | 4.025 | 98.53 | 0.05 | | 5 yr | 4.125 | 98.881 | 0.054 | | 7 yr | 4.294 | 99.738 | 0.054 | | 10 yr | 4.453 | 97.377 | 0.044 | | 30 yr | 5.026 | 95.743 | 0.039 | Market Data

Mortgage Today (AM) - 05/12/26

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May 12, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 05/12/2026 Mortgage-backed securities retreated from morning highs as geopolitical tensions overshadowed April's surprisingly hot inflation data. The 30-year UMBS 5.0 coupon fell nearly 0.17 points by mid-morning while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed 4.3 basis points to 4.451%, signaling investor anxiety about the Strait of Hormuz closure and rising energy costs. Core inflation printed 2.8% annually versus 2.7% forecasts, and headline CPI reached 3.8% year-over-year, the fastest pace since May 2023, yet bonds initially shrugged off the hotter-than-expected numbers. Traders shifted focus to core goods deflation and housing sector weakness as reasons to believe rate cuts remain off the table for now. For lenders, this intraday volatility means overnight price protection is now critical, and most shops did not reprice before MBS peaked at 8:45 to 9:00 AM ET. Energy inflation is the real culprit driving Treasury yields higher, not domestic demand. With oil climbing above $101 per barrel and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz nearly halted by the Iran conflict, commodity prices threaten to spill into future core inflation readings and derail any near-term rate relief. The supercore inflation metric (which excludes food, energy, and housing) remains stubbornly elevated at 3.32% annually, making the Federal Reserve reluctant to hint at easing. War-related headline risk now dominates bond market direction more than employment data, unemployment figures, or even the $42 billion 10-year Treasury auction scheduled for today. Mortgage originators should expect rate sheet adjustments to move higher, particularly for overnight locks and weekend locks. Longer-dated rate certainty depends more on geopolitical developments than Fed policy at this moment. Optimal Blue's April Market Advantage report reveals purchase demand weakening despite year-over-year strength. Total rate-lock volume declined 9% month-over-month, though it remained 11% higher than April 2025, while purchase demand dipped less than 2% from March but stands up over 9% year-over-year. Refinance activity collapsed nearly 38%, compressing refi share to just 23% of total production, a clear signal that higher rates have suppressed legacy lending activity. Agency MBS share of secondary production rose to 44% as higher rates reduced refinance expectations, yet mortgage servicing rights values climbed on the same expectation. The spring homebuying season is failing to deliver historically typical volume increases, with war costs and rising oil prices weighing on borrower psychology and purchase power. **Locking vs Floating** Bonds remain range-bound between 4.34% and recent highs, with no clear directional trigger in sight until geopolitical tensions ease or a peace deal emerges. Short-term lock-float strategies cannot reliably be set based on war headlines alone; the next meaningful move depends entirely on whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Longer-term, a peace agreement would likely offer some rate benefit versus current levels, though energy inflation already baked into commodity markets may persist for months. Lenders should communicate to loan officers that repricing risk is elevated and overnight price protection is essential given the volatility. **Today's Events** April m/m Headline CPI: 0.6% (forecast 0.6%, prior 0.9%) April m/m CORE CPI: 0.4% (forecast 0.3%, prior 0.2%) April y/y Headline CPI: 3.8% (forecast 3.7%, prior 3.3%) April y/y CORE CPI: 2.8% (forecast 2.7%, prior 2.6%) 10-Year Treasury Note Auction: $42 billion **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.23 | -0.17 | | 5.5 | 100.3 | -0.05 | | 6.0 | 102.02 | 0.06 | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.03 | -0.24 | | 5.5 | 100.69 | -0.09 | | 6.0 | 101.8 | -0.11 | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.993 | 99.776 | 0.041 | | 3 yr | 4.02 | 98.544 | 0.045 | | 5 yr | 4.117 | 98.916 | 0.043 | | 7 yr | 4.284 | 99.797 | 0.042 | | 10 yr | 4.453 | 97.377 | 0.044 | | 30 yr | 5.018 | 95.868 | 0.031 |

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