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HOME2023-01-22T13:43:33-07:00

“Damn, there is so much great knowledge out there. Did you know that “BOOKS” are full of smart?? No, I mean like life changing, I-wish-I-knew-that-years-ago type stuff.

I know that I was waaaayyy late to the game figuring it out. And I know that a lot of you are too busy to read as much as you ‘should’. And that is why you need me.

I still remember how it started for me. It started in June of 2008. After 11  years …..Click to continue

Mortgage Today (PM) - 10/20/26 {{catlist}}
October 20, 2026 READ MORE **WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 10/20/2026** Sellers now outnumber buyers by 63% in the widest gap since 2013, signaling a dramatic shift toward buyer's markets across the country. This record imbalance reflects months of rising mortgage rates that have priced out millions of potential purchasers, even as home inventory climbs higher. The Sun Belt dominates the seller surplus, with just five major metros still favoring sellers. For loan officers and real estate partners, this dynamic creates both negotiating leverage and complexity—borrowers need clarity on which concessions (price cuts, closing-cost help, rate buydowns) actually improve their cash position and monthly payment. The concentration of inventory at the higher end of the market leaves first-time and mid-market buyers facing tougher conditions just as affordability pressures mount across the industry. Mortgage origination volume is expected to decline 5% to roughly $1.95 trillion in 2027, continuing a downward trend that has lenders reassessing staffing, operating costs, and channel profitability. Purchase originations will inch up just 0.8% while refinancing plunges 17%, reflecting limited incentive for borrowers to refinance when rates remain sticky above 7%. Loan origination officers and branch managers are under mounting pressure as technology investments compete with headcount for limited capital, while lenders explore whether smaller, leaner operations with better referral relationships can survive the downturn. This reckoning is forcing difficult conversations about which loan officers, channels, and products actually generate sustainable returns in a slower market. Inflation remained sticky at 3.7% year-over-year in September, hotter than expected and raising concerns that Fed relief may be further away than hoped. Core CPI accelerated beyond forecasts, pushing wholesale prices up 6.3% annually—the largest gain since 2022—while energy costs continue to bite borrowers and lenders alike. The inflation surprise sent mortgage rates initially higher before a sharp tech-stock selloff triggered a flight to safety, creating a paradoxical rally in bonds that left the 10-year Treasury at 5.11% by week's end. This volatile backdrop means mortgage rates could pivot quickly in either direction depending on whether AI-related credit concerns persist or economic resilience reasserts itself over the next two weeks before the next CPI print. Fannie Mae is expanding occupancy verification using borrower history, financial data, and property characteristics to flag potentially inaccurate designations starting November 13, requiring lenders to ensure primary-occupancy documentation is ironclad before submission. Freddie Mac reports substantially lower defect rates on loans using its automated validation tools, signaling that digital verification can cut rework and accelerate closings. These moves reflect a broader industry push to reduce costly loan defects and reprurchase activity, which climbed 19.5% in Q2 2026 with Rocket, UWM, and Lakeview accounting for the largest share. Originators should view this as an opportunity to eliminate duplicate work and redundant verification steps—clean data and automated validation now save time and compliance headaches downstream. MBA Homebase, launched by the Mortgage Bankers Association and FirstHome IQ, offers loan officers NMLS-approved continuing education, monthly coaching, and access to the Trust Certified program regardless of lender affiliation. The platform targets 5,000 participants by year-end with a long-term goal of 25,000, aiming to strengthen LO professional development and involvement in housing policy advocacy. Meanwhile, GSE repurchase activity accelerated as credit quality and documentation defects persist, reminding the industry that automation alone cannot substitute for disciplined underwriting and sound origination practices. The combination of stricter GSE verification, faster industry consolidation, and shrinking margins means surviving lenders will be those who invest in talent development and operational efficiency simultaneously. Bonds staged a brief rally when tech-sector concerns flared mid-week, pushing the 10-year yield down 25 basis points from recent highs near 5.36%, only to give back most gains as equity markets stabilized. UMBS 6.0 coupons finished the week at 98.70, down 0.25 points from the previous close, while mortgage rates climbed back toward 7.5% as investors questioned whether the bond market's safe-haven demand would persist. Without a clear recession signal or sustained AI-credit contagion, rates are likely to drift higher again, keeping borrowers on edge and lenders focused on tight hedging discipline. Capital markets execution will prove critical in coming weeks: selective positioning, careful coupon management, and honest conversations about pipeline economics may be the difference between profitability and losses when margins compress further. **Locking vs Floating** Tech stock weakness has provided temporary support for bonds, but it remains unclear whether this safety rally can hold if equity markets stabilize. Borrowers closing within two weeks should consider locking given the narrow upside and persistent inflation concerns, while those with flexibility beyond mid-November might float if AI-credit worries escalate. The risk/reward increasingly favors taking certainty at current levels rather than betting on a bigger rally that will require a recession or trade-war resolution to materialize. **Today's Events** Building Permits: 1.400M vs 1.390M forecast (week of October 20) Housing Starts: 1.221M vs 1.300M forecast (week of October 20) **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |

Market Data Mortgage Today (AM) - 10/20/26 {{catlist}}
October 20, 2026 READ MORE **WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 10/20/2026** Mortgage originators face a tightening vise as October housing starts fell 5.2 percent to just 1.221 million annually, well below expectations of 1.305 million and signaling continued weakness in demand. The MBA expects 2027 production to fall 5 percent below 2026 levels to around $2 trillion, forcing lenders to scrutinize loan officer productivity and whether current headcount is sustainable through winter. September retail sales outperformed expectations by rising 0.8 percent versus a 0.3 percent forecast, yet this resilience masks underlying fragility as wage growth lags inflation for six consecutive months and borrower debt-to-income ratios remain dangerously elevated. GSE repurchase activity jumped 19.5 percent quarter-over-quarter to $465.2 million in unpaid principal during Q2 2026, with Fannie Mae rejecting only 16.8 percent of repurchase demands while Freddie was more lenient at 46.9 percent. Pending home sales dropped 4 percent in September from August, marking the biggest monthly fall in over three years and pushing contract signings to their lowest level since 2014 excluding the pandemic. Existing home inventory climbed to 4.8 months of supply while nearly one in five sellers cut asking prices, signaling a buyer's market emerging despite stubborn mortgage rates hovering near 7.4 percent. **Locking vs Floating** Rate volatility has created meaningful two-sided risk for pipeline hedgers as the 10-year Treasury yield swung wildly from 5.36 percent down to 5.03 percent within the same week. Inflation data continues to surprise to the upside, yet technology sector weakness and concerns over unsustainable AI infrastructure financing triggered flight-to-safety flows that pushed bonds higher. The Fed's December rate-hike probability remains elevated above 88 percent despite hawkish sentiment fading, leaving both lock and float strategies exposed to further swings depending on whether earnings season confirms AI investment returns can justify financing costs. **Today's Events** September Housing Starts: 1.221M annualized (est. 1.305M, down 5.2 percent). Building Permits: 1.400M (est. 1.385K, down 0.2 percent). September Pending Home Sales (pending). Redbook same store sales data. Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 release. **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |

Market Data Mortgage Today (PM) - 10/19/26 {{catlist}}
October 19, 2026 READ MORE **WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 10/19/2026** Bond markets staged a dramatic rally mid-week despite hotter-than-expected inflation data, as investors fled deteriorating technology stocks and AI debt concerns. The 10-year Treasury yield fell from a near-decade high of 5.36 percent to approximately 5.08 percent by Friday, with UMBS 6.0 gaining 70 basis points in a single day Thursday. However, Monday's weakness signals that relief trade may be exhausting itself, as yields crept back toward 5.14 percent without clear economic catalysts behind the move. Mortgage originators caught in the middle face thinning margins, reduced purchase activity, and persistent affordability headwinds that continue crushing qualified buyer pools. The MBA now projects 2027 mortgage origination volume declining 5 percent to below $2 trillion, forcing hard conversations about loan officer headcount, channel profitability, and cost structure sustainability. September's existing home sales rose modestly but inventory climbed to a 4.8-month supply, marking the longest since the pandemic crash—a buyer's market in name only when rates stay above 7 percent and most borrowers cannot qualify. Meanwhile, home sellers outnumbered buyers by 63 percent last month, the widest gap since Redfin began tracking data in 2013, piling pressure on originators chasing fewer deals in a compressed window. Credit quality concerns are creeping higher as sub-700 FICO loans hit 11.4 percent of UMBS 30-year issuance year-to-date and VantageScore 4.0 shifts pricing paradigms away from tri-merge methodology. GSE repurchase activity surged 19.5 percent in Q2 2026, with Rocket, UWM, and Lakeview accounting for outsized share of putbacks despite scaling the market. Servicer-level prepayment speeds reveal persistent differences, with Rocket/Quicken leading and Idaho HFA lagging for 14 consecutive months—critical data for mortgage investors evaluating portfolio risk beneath headline CPR figures. Technology adoption promises remain largely unproven as lenders splash millions on AI automation tools without baseline metrics, clear ROI calculation, or post-implementation discipline. The mortgage industry must resist deploying AI to automate dysfunction when the real opportunity lies in fundamentally redesigning inefficient workflows first. Capital markets execution, hedging discipline, and selective positioning matter far more than chasing vendor promises when margins compress and volume evaporates—operational excellence beats technology evangelism in a downturn. Affordability continues its downward spiral with mortgage rates stabilizing near 7.5 percent while median home prices hold above $417,500 and consumer confidence weakens under dual weight of higher borrowing costs and persistent inflation. ARM adoption hit a 7-year high at 10.5 percent of applications as purchase activity dropped 16 percent year-over-year, forcing borrowers into riskier product categories. Non-QM channels are growing as traditional conforming volume softens, creating both opportunity and concentration risk for lenders diversifying into less-regulated loan products. The MBA's affordability roadmap pushes for lower credit fees, FHA insurance premium reductions, and agency pricing flexibility to restore purchasing power lost to rate elevation since February lows. Pending home sales sit near 12-year lows despite seller inventory rising sharply, reflecting the mismatch between available homes at high prices and buyers unable to qualify at current mortgage rates. Originators must pivot toward client retention, home equity monetization through HELOC and second-lien products, and disciplined operational management—traditional purchase production will not carry the business through 2027. **Locking vs Floating** Mid-week's tech-driven rally created a tactical opportunity for borrowers near closing, but Monday's weakness suggests that relief is fragile and dependent on ongoing equity-market distress. The 10-year floor remains contested around 5.07 percent, with any stabilization in technology stocks likely to push yields higher toward resistance at 5.27 and 5.34 percent. Lock decisions should weigh the 30-basis-point rally against historically high rate volatility and limited near-term catalysts for sustained bond strength. **Today's Events** Data releases this week include existing home sales, jobless claims, wholesale prices, retail sales, import prices, and industrial production—all relevant to Fed rate expectations heading into year-end decision meetings. **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |

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