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Mortgage Today (AM) - 02/06/26

Week In Review
February 6, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 02/06/2026 Markets are experiencing a surprisingly strong bond rally despite mixed economic signals. The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.197%, up just 1.7 basis points overnight in what traders are calling modest weakness. MBS pricing shows mixed performance with UMBS 5.5 coupons gaining 2 ticks while GNMA securities posted small declines across most coupons. Thursday's labor market data created significant bond market momentum that's carrying into today's session. The absence of major economic releases this week puts all eyes on next Wednesday's jobs report as the key catalyst for direction. This creates an interesting tactical environment where short-term positioning matters more than usual. GNMA 30-year securities are showing relative weakness compared to UMBS, with the 5.5 and 6.0 coupons down 5 basis points each. This spread between agency securities often signals institutional flow patterns that can predict rate sheet adjustments. Lenders watching these differentials may adjust pricing strategies accordingly. The Treasury curve shows uniform weakness with yields rising between 1.2 and 2.3 basis points across all maturities. The 3-year note leads the selloff at 2.3 basis points higher, while the 30-year long bond shows the most resilience with only a 1.2 basis point increase. This flattening bias suggests caution about long-term economic growth prospects. Locking vs Floating Thursday's employment data triggered serious bond market movement, setting up next Wednesday's jobs report as the critical decision point. With no major economic releases remaining this week, markets are in a holding pattern that could break decisively in either direction. Borrowers floating with lenders who haven't improved pricing today face less downside risk than normal heading into Friday's session. Today's Events No major economic data releases are scheduled for today. Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 100.03 | -0.02 | | 5.5 | 101.47 | 0.02 | | 6.0 | 102.5 | 0.01 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 100.05 | -0.02 | | 5.5 | 101.19 | -0.05 | | 6.0 | 102.27 | -0.05 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.471 | 100.056 | 0.012 | | 3 yr | 3.543 | 99.88 | 0.023 | | 5 yr | 3.736 | 100.064 | 0.019 | | 7 yr | 3.959 | 100.248 | 0.02 | | 10 yr | 4.197 | 98.404 | 0.017 | | 30 yr | 4.854 | 96.4 | 0.012 | Market Data

Mortgage Today (PM) - 02/05/26

Week In Review
February 5, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 02/05/2026 January job cuts surged to their highest level since 2009, with employers announcing over 108,000 layoffs according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The transportation and tech sectors took the biggest hits, with UPS and Amazon leading the charge. Despite these alarming headlines, the disconnect between consumer sentiment and actual economic indicators remains stark - unemployment sits at just 4.4% while consumer confidence mirrors Great Recession levels. This morning's jobless claims data came in at 231,000, higher than the 212,000 forecast, while continuing claims held steady at 1.844 million. The government shutdown has delayed key labor reports, pushing the crucial jobs report to next Wednesday. European central banks maintained their rates overnight as expected, with the Bank of England holding at 3.75% and the ECB at 2.00%. Market Response and Fed Outlook Bonds and mortgage-backed securities are gaining ground this morning while stocks retreat in what traders call the "software as a selloff" trade. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.238% after closing yesterday at 4.28%, providing some relief for mortgage pricing. Fed President Tom Barkin compared today's AI productivity boom to the 1990s tech revolution, though he noted current inflation remains stubbornly above target. Markets are increasingly focused on June for potential Fed rate cuts under Chairman Warsh's leadership, as March cut odds continue to fade. The productivity gains from artificial intelligence could help combat inflation, similar to how the internet revolution aided the economy in the 1990s. However, unlike the 1990s when the US imported deflation from Japan's economic collapse, today's inflationary pressures present different challenges. Locking vs Floating With most of this week's major economic data released, volatility should remain contained until next Wednesday's rescheduled jobs report. Government shutdown postponements mean today includes both job openings and jobless claims data, which could create some market movement. MBS prices improved nearly an eighth of a point overnight with additional gains following morning employment data. Today's Events - Continued Claims (Jan 24): 1,844K vs 1,850K forecast, 1,827K previous - Jobless Claims (Jan 31): 231K vs 212K forecast, 209K previous Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.85 | 0.13 | | 5.5 | 101.37 | 0.1 | | 6.0 | 102.41 | 0 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.97 | 0.14 | | 5.5 | 101.11 | -0.03 | | 6.0 | 102.25 | -0.01 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.504 | 99.992 | -0.055 | | 3 yr | 3.58 | 99.777 | -0.058 | | 5 yr | 3.779 | 99.867 | -0.054 | | 7 yr | 4.001 | 99.992 | -0.049 | | 10 yr | 4.238 | 98.109 | -0.04 | | 30 yr | 4.889 | 95.875 | -0.026 | Market Data

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