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Mortgage Today (PM) - 11/13/26

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November 13, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 11/13/2026** MBS securities weakened early Thursday following hotter-than-expected inflation data and hawkish Federal Reserve commentary, with UMBS 6.0 down over half a point by midday as negative reprices became increasingly likely for lenders with early rate sheets. Treasury yields climbed aggressively, breaching 5 percent on the 10-year as a poorly received $42 billion bond auction signaled weak investor demand, while the 2-year yield also surged amid expectations for additional Fed rate hikes. By Friday, bond losses continued at a more moderate pace with no new catalysts, as PPI data came in line with expectations and curve trading amid lighter liquidity explained much of the intraday volatility. Core inflation dynamics remain sticky at 0.3 percent month-over-month for the third consecutive month, keeping Fed officials in a hawkish stance despite softer commodity prices. Current-coupon MBS yields climbed to 6.13 percent, reflecting persistent upward pressure on borrowing costs that weigh heavily on mortgage affordability and origination margins. Lenders remain defensive with a "wait and see" posture as bonds have clearly exited October's rally trend, with any resumption of bullishness dependent on a return of technology sector weakness. The mortgage industry's consolidation train is accelerating rapidly, with STRATMOR Group forecasting 46 transactions by year-end as unprofitable lenders face harsh realities about their future. Weak profits, rising technology costs from the artificial intelligence arms race, and the dominance of vertically integrated giants are pushing owners toward the exits—some simply exhausted by the pace of change. Smaller banks with less than $5 billion in assets are re-entering the M&A market, seeing opportunities to leverage existing customer bases and expand home equity products. Graham's blunt assessment: "There's only so much fixed expense you can cut before you're burning the furniture to stay warm." Those determined to remain independent must model realistic scenarios and avoid betting on magical refinance booms or big loan officer recruits to save their business models. A major Microsoft Outlook outage on Thursday disrupted mortgage lenders nationwide, though most companies adapted quickly using WhatsApp, Zoom, and text for communications and file handling. The incident exposed the industry's dangerous dependency on a small number of cloud-based technology providers that interconnect LOSs, PPEs, credit reporting, income verification, document management, and servicing systems. While a single day without email is manageable, an extended outage affecting critical lending systems would mean missed closing dates, expired rate locks, and delayed fundings. The industry's billions in digitization spending has created efficiency gains but also multiplied points of failure across vendor ecosystems. Lenders who process clear-to-close packages days in advance weathered the disruption better, though some title companies were less accommodating with accelerated timelines. **Locking vs Floating** Maintain a defensive stance and wait for clarity before repositioning. Bonds have exited October's uptrend, and bullish recovery depends on renewed technology-sector weakness that has largely been defused over the past five trading days. Short-term yields rallied even as longer-term bonds sold off, creating curve-trading opportunities in lighter market conditions. **Today's Events** Core PPI m/m (Oct): 0.3% vs 0.3% forecast, 0.7% previous Core PPI y/y (Oct): 5.0% vs 5% forecast, 5% previous PPI m/m (Oct): 0.3% vs 0.4% forecast, 1.3% previous PPI y/y (Oct): 6.5% vs 6.6% forecast, 6.3% previous **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change |

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Mortgage Today (AM) - 11/13/26

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November 13, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 11/13/2026** Rates are back on the defensive after this week’s hotter CPI and a still-firm PPI, with the 10-year yield hovering near 5.1 percent and UMBS production coupons giving back part of the early‑November rally. The market is now leaning toward a December Fed hike and even entertaining odds of another move early next year. Expect intraday volatility around auctions and any oil headlines, which have increasingly swayed duration. For lenders, that translates to choppier best‑ex and higher negative‑reprice risk as bid/ask widens into year‑end. Keep an eye on convexity grabs if stocks wobble again. Ginnie Mae continues to carry more of the production load: it accounted for roughly 47 percent of October agency issuance and ~42 percent year‑to‑date, as more borrowers qualify through FHA/VA. Prepayments slowed broadly in October, with FN and GNMA speeds both lower, reflecting elevated rates, seasonal cooling, and scarcer refi incentives. That mix shift matters: GNMA pools tend to run lower‑credit, higher DQ sensitivity, and different servicer advance dynamics, which feeds back into spec payups, liquidity, and MSR marks. Positioning around mid‑coupon, seasoned GNMA remains a pricing lever. But credit dispersion will stay front and center into 2027. Origination showed a brief pulse: MBA apps rose 6.2 percent week over week, helped by the recent dip in rates, though purchase remains down ~18 percent year over year and refi down ~57 percent. Lock mix reflects affordability triage: ARM share climbed toward cycle highs, FHA share is firm, and lenders are leaning into buydowns and second‑lien equity solutions where first‑lien refis make little sense. Operationally, lenders are prioritizing fast eligibility decisions, clean pricing/LLPA explanations, and investor appetite for higher coupons. Expect more interest in HELOC/CES and DSCR, but execution risk rises as volumes fragment. Housing activity is soft into the holidays. Existing home sales fell 5.5 percent in October to a 3.75 million annual pace, the weakest since 2010, while several trackers flagged record‑low October contract signings. Inventory is edging higher and price gains are flattening in more metros, giving buyers slightly better leverage on concessions even as monthly payments bite. Cancellations remain contained, suggesting most contracts that get to mutual acceptance still close. Builders continue to rely on incentives and rate buydowns to clear backlog, which helps new‑home share but pressures gross margins. Credit policy is in flux. Some investors are piloting VantageScore 4.0 acceptance alongside Classic FICO, but adoption is uneven and price grids are not uniform; lenders that cherry‑pick scores risk downstream execution surprises. At the same time, the CFPB has pulled back on some supervisory activity but is reviewing ATR/QM and Reg X servicing rules—governance, model risk, and fair‑lending documentation still need to be airtight. Net: price and eligibility choice is expanding, not simplifying, so secondary policy should be explicit about acceptable score models by product, channel, and take‑out. Tactically, treat rallies as opportunities to lock and reduce pipeline basis risk, not as a green light to float. Production coupons remain headline‑sensitive, and auctions plus Fed‑speak can flip tone quickly. For borrower strategy, emphasize total cost of funds: points, permanent/temporary buydowns, ARM vs fixed break‑evens, and second‑lien equity versus cash‑out. FHA/VA remain powerful tools for payment relief and eligibility—close cleanly, reduce repurchase risk, and preserve MSR value. Keep LO desks primed with fast‑turn scenario answers as bid/ask and overlays shift intraday. **Locking vs Floating** The recent rally was driven more by tech‑sector angst and short‑covering than by a durable shift in inflation, and bonds have since stalled near major resistance. With CPI/PPI out and auctions still ahead, risk is two‑sided but skewed toward volatility; don’t be complacent about a quick give‑back. Lock on lender‑friendly bounces, especially for short turn times and thinner margins. Floating only makes sense on longer lead files with cushion and clear reprice triggers. In all cases, have a plan for negative reprice risk if yields push decisively back above 5 percent. **Today's Events** October PPI and Core PPI were released this morning, both up 0.3 percent month over month. Several Fed officials speak today, including Collins, Logan, Bowman, Daly, and Jefferson; markets will parse remarks for December hike signals. Subscribe free for daily mortgage intel at WellThatMakesSense.com.

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Mortgage Today (AM) - 11/12/26

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November 12, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 11/12/2026** Bonds are modestly weaker to start, with the 10-year Treasury hovering near 5.00 percent as front-end yields lead and long-end holds steadier. Tuesday’s hotter CPI print (core +0.3 percent m/m) and hawkish Fed chatter pushed markets to fully price a December hike. Oil volatility around Iran headlines remains a swing factor for rates. MBS are tracking the Treasury tone with slight morning weakness and mixed spreads. Today’s focus is jobless claims and the 30-year bond auction. In UMBS, last week’s rally delivered the strongest weekly excess returns since early August, led by 30-year 5.0–6.0 coupons and improving specified-pool appetite. Prepayments slowed again in October, and wide primary–secondary spreads mean rate sheets still lag the Treasury move. The modeled par mortgage rate is back near 7 percent as current coupons sit around the low-6s. After Tuesday’s CPI surprise, production coupons are giving back a bit this morning. Positioning remains light into year-end, amplifying intraday swings. Ginnie Mae’s share of agency issuance continues to climb, hitting about 42 percent year-to-date and 47 percent in October as more borrowers funnel through FHA/VA. Slower speeds and higher delinquency profiles versus GSE cohorts keep GNMA spreads a touch wider, but seasoned and certain spec stories still screen attractive. With refinance incentives scarce, shorter-duration 15s and 20s keep shrinking while 30-year GNMA origination dominates. Expect issuers to lean on coupon up-in-quality stories amid rate volatility. Liquidity is thinner, but depth improves on rallies. Rates trade the macro: CPI beat, a fully priced December hike, and a curve that flattens on front-end repricing. Markets are watching today’s 30-year auction after mixed 3s and 10s, with bidders sensitive to supply at these yield levels. Oil’s bounce on “no deal needed” comments keeps energy/inflation risk in the mix. Fed speakers stay hawkish-biased, reinforcing a data-dependent path into year-end. Big picture: long-end yields are capped by risk aversion, while the front-end reflects a stickier Fed path. On the ground, mortgage demand improved week-over-week (+6.2 percent), but purchase apps remain 18 percent below last year and refis 57 percent lower. ARM usage keeps rising (roughly mid‑teens share) as buyers hunt payment relief, while HELOCs gain momentum and could overtake non-QM growth into 2027. Credit remains tight; CFPB supervision has eased, but Reg Z/X rule reviews are underway. Credit-score modernization is messy near-term: Vantage 4.0 and FICO 10T may benefit some borrowers, yet investor acceptance, pricing, and “lowest score” rules can introduce execution risk. Housing liquidity is thin: contract signings hit a record October low, new listings fell sharply, and asking prices edged lower as inventory nudged higher. Veteran affordability is strained despite VA benefits, aligning with broader cost pressures from taxes, insurance, and utilities. FEMA mapping and data gaps complicate risk pricing in several Sun Belt markets. Builders rely more on buydowns and incentives to offset rates, but buyer traffic remains rate-level sensitive. Affordability, not weekly rate blips, is still the gating factor for volumes. **Locking vs Floating** Momentum is fragile after CPI, and headline risk around oil and Fed rhetoric can flip intraday bias quickly. With the curve flatter and front-end repricing hawkishly, lenders should expect choppy, range-bound MBS, and be ready for negative reprices on weak auction outcomes. Short-term rallies remain vulnerable without softer inflation or weaker growth data. Float only with cushion and rapid lock triggers; otherwise favor tactical locking on strength, especially for near-term closings. Don’t be complacent: the recent bond rally has covered a lot of ground and can stall without fresh disinflation signals. **Today's Events** Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims this morning. U.S. Treasury auctions $25 billion in 30-year bonds at 1:00 p.m. ET. Fed speakers: Richmond’s Barkin and Dallas’ Logan. Subscribe free at WellThatMakesSense.com for daily mortgage intel in 90 seconds.

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