Well That Makes Sense – WTMS Well That Makes Sense

“Damn, there is so much great knowledge out there. Did you know that “BOOKS” are full of smart?? No, I mean like life changing, I-wish-I-knew-that-years-ago type stuff.

I know that I was waaaayyy late to the game figuring it out. And I know that a lot of you are too busy to read as much as you ‘should’. And that is why you need me.

I still remember how it started for me. It started in June of 2008. After 11 years …..Click to continue

Mortgage Today (PM) - 03/06/26

Week In Review
March 6, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 03/06/2026 Bond markets delivered a wild rollercoaster ride today as February's jobs report shocked traders with a negative 92,000 print against expectations of a 59,000 gain. The massive miss initially sent yields lower and MBS higher in a logical flight-to-safety move. But that relief rally evaporated by mid-morning as paradoxical selling pressure pushed yields to session highs despite the weak employment data. The 10-year Treasury ultimately finished nearly flat at 4.13% after touching 4.176% during morning weakness and 4.113% at the afternoon peak. UMBS prices followed a similar whipsaw pattern, rallying briefly after the 8:30 AM jobs report before reversing sharply lower by 10:09 AM. Markets finally stabilized in afternoon trading, with MBS ending down just 2 ticks on the day after recovering from an eighth-point decline. Oil prices surging past $90 per barrel added significant complexity to today's market dynamics. Overnight weakness had already pressured bonds before the jobs data hit, with crude's relentless climb raising inflation concerns. The fact that bonds managed to finish essentially unchanged despite oil's breakout represents a modest victory for mortgage-backed securities. Unemployment ticked up to 4.4% from 4.3% as the labor force participation rate dropped to 62.0% from 62.5%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4%, matching forecasts and prior month readings. These mixed signals left traders uncertain whether weakening employment justifies rate cut expectations or whether wage pressures and oil prices demand continued Fed vigilance. Stock markets reflected the economic uncertainty with the S&P 500 hitting its lowest levels since November. Fed funds futures continue pricing in higher odds of rate cuts this year despite persistent inflation signals. The disconnect between equity weakness and bond market hesitancy suggests investors remain deeply conflicted about the economic outlook. January retail sales data also crossed the wires today, showing a 0.2% decline versus the 0.3% drop expected. The control group component actually rose 0.3%, beating the 0.2% forecast and reversing January's 0.1% decline. This consumer spending resilience adds another layer to the already complicated economic picture facing mortgage originators. Locking vs Floating Market volatility remains significantly elevated due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and the heavy schedule of incoming economic data. Borrowers with near-term closings should strongly consider locking to avoid potential adverse movements. The current environment offers little reward for floating given the unpredictable intraday swings we witnessed today. Today's Events Average earnings mm (Feb): 0.4% vs 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous Non Farm Payrolls (Feb): -92K vs 59K forecast, 130K previous Participation Rate (Feb): 62.0% vs no forecast, 62.5% previous Retail Sales (Jan): -0.2% vs -0.3% forecast, 0% previous Retail Sales Control Group MoM (Jan): 0.3% vs 0.2% forecast, -0.1% previous Unemployment rate mm (Feb): 4.4% vs 4.3% forecast, 4.3% previous Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.75 | -0.06 | | 5.5 | 101.23 | -0.04 | | 5.0 | 100.02 | -0.01 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.55 | 99.904 | -0.031 | | 3 yr | 3.576 | 99.787 | -0.023 | | 5 yr | 3.725 | 100.112 | -0.003 | | 7 yr | 3.913 | 100.531 | -0.013 | | 10 yr | 4.13 | 98.947 | -0.009 | | 30 yr | 4.764 | 97.791 | 0.008 | Market Data

Mortgage Today (AM) - 03/06/26

Week In Review
March 6, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 03/06/2026 Oil prices are drowning out what should have been a rally day for mortgage bonds. February nonfarm payrolls crashed to negative 92,000 jobs versus expectations of a 59,000 gain, marking the widest miss in over a year. But instead of bonds rallying sharply as they normally would, UMBS 5.0 coupons are down 18 basis points and the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed 4 basis points to 4.176 percent. The culprit is crude oil's relentless surge following the complete halt of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Geopolitical tensions are triggering inflation fears that are overpowering weak employment data. When oil spikes this dramatically, markets worry about inflation returning even as the labor market softens. The jobs report showed unemployment ticked up to 4.4 percent from 4.3 percent, which somewhat offset the payroll disaster. Healthcare strikes distorted the February count according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Average earnings grew 0.4 percent versus the 0.3 percent forecast, keeping year-over-year wage growth at 3.8 percent. Bonds initially rallied at 8:30 AM when the data hit, with the 10-year dropping to 4.121 percent. By 10:09 AM that rally completely reversed as oil concerns reasserted control. This whipsaw action creates reprice risk for lenders still finalizing morning rate sheets. The 10-year Treasury yield has traveled from 3.93 percent at year-start to a high of 4.31 percent, now settling near 4.18 percent after closing near 3.95 percent just last Friday. That 20-basis-point move in four days is unusually fast and reflects broader market repricing. Options traders are increasingly betting the Fed won't cut rates at all this year. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows the 30-year rate at 6.00 percent for the week ending March 5, up 2 basis points from the prior week's 5.98 percent low. That 5.98 percent marked the lowest level since September 2022. The 15-year rate fell 1 basis point to 5.43 percent. Better.com is shaking up underwriting with a ChatGPT-powered app that cuts approval times from 21 days to just 47 seconds. The tool automates dozens of underwriting checks and targets rivals like Rocket Mortgage and United Wholesale Mortgage. This technology could force the entire industry to accelerate digital transformation or risk losing market share. United Wholesale Mortgage launched temporary pricing incentives including a 75-basis-point discount on eligible refinance loans through March. They're also offering a $600 appraisal credit for eligible purchase loans through April. JPMorgan Chase simultaneously launched a limited-time rate sale through March 8 with personalized discounts that stack with other relationship pricing. Morgan Stanley is cutting 2,500 jobs across divisions including mortgage origination services for wealth clients. The layoffs span 3 percent of their workforce despite reporting $70.6 billion in revenue and $16.9 billion in net income for 2025. Geographic strategy shifts and performance considerations are driving the restructuring. Locking vs Floating Volatility risk remains much higher than normal due to geopolitical uncertainty and incoming economic data. Recent bond market weakness received minimal support despite today's catastrophic jobs miss. Only the most risk-tolerant clients should consider floating, while everyone else should wait for firmer evidence that the bleeding has stopped before making moves. Today's Events Average earnings for February came in at 0.4 percent versus 0.3 percent forecast. Non Farm Payrolls for February printed at negative 92,000 versus 59,000 forecast. Participation Rate for February dropped to 62.0 percent versus 62.5 percent prior. Retail Sales for January showed negative 0.2 percent versus negative 0.3 percent forecast. Retail Sales Control Group for January grew 0.3 percent versus 0.2 percent forecast. Unemployment rate for February rose to 4.4 percent versus 4.3 percent forecast. Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.63 | -0.18 | | 5.5 | 101.2 | -0.07 | | 5.0 | 99.91 | -0.12 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.567 | 99.872 | -0.017 | | 3 yr | 3.6 | 99.719 | 0.004 | | 5 yr | 3.745 | 100.024 | 0.017 | | 7 yr | 3.951 | 100.298 | 0.027 | | 10 yr | 4.172 | 98.604 | 0.036 | | 30 yr | 4.797 | 97.282 | 0.043 | Market Data

Mortgage Today (PM) - 03/05/26

Week In Review
March 5, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 03/05/2026 The mortgage trigger lead industry ended today as the Homebuyers Privacy Protection Act took effect. Credit reporting agencies can no longer sell trigger leads unless the lender already originated or services that borrower's loan, or the consumer explicitly opted in. For originators who don't retain servicing, this eliminates a major lead source overnight and forces an immediate pivot to referral-based marketing strategies. Geopolitical chaos dominated bond markets as the Iran conflict pushed oil prices toward $83 per barrel. The 10-year Treasury yield broke through 4.10% and climbed to 4.14%, up 4.3 basis points on the day. UMBS 5.0 coupons dropped 19 basis points to 99.78, the worst single-day performance in two weeks. Energy price spikes are creating an unusual market dynamic. Markets are pricing in less Fed easing, with expectations dropping from 60 basis points of cuts last week to just 41 basis points by year-end. The 2-year Treasury jumped 23 basis points as traders bet inflation concerns will keep the Fed sidelined longer than previously expected. Nearly one million people were impacted by a phishing attack on Figure Technology Solutions, highlighting cybersecurity vulnerabilities across mortgage banking. The incident serves as a critical reminder that post-breach response matters more than the breach itself. Figure detected and contained the attack within one day, immediately notified regulators, and offered credit monitoring to affected consumers—actions that substantially reduce enforcement risk compared to slower responses. Historical data from recent mortgage industry breaches shows dramatic cost differences based on response speed. Bayview Asset Management and Flagstar Bank faced $46 million and $35 million in combined penalties respectively after slow detection and poor regulatory cooperation. By contrast, Mr. Cooper and LoanDepot detected breaches within 24 hours and faced significantly lower per-customer costs despite affecting 14.7 million and 16.9 million customers. Home relistings hit a record high in January with nearly 45,000 homes returning to market after being previously delisted in 2025. This represents 3.6% of all active listings and signals sellers are preparing for spring activity. The relisting surge suggests homeowners are testing pricing strategies as they navigate elevated mortgage rates that remain stubbornly high despite earlier optimism. The U.S. Navy torpedoed an Iranian warship near Sri Lanka in the first submarine attack on an enemy vessel since World War II. The IRIS Dena, nicknamed "Soleimani" after the Iranian general killed in 2020, had more than 170 people aboard. Sri Lankan authorities rescued 32 survivors while roughly 140 remain missing, intensifying concerns about prolonged disruption to the Strait of Hormuz oil shipping lanes. Treasury yields rose through higher real rates rather than inflation expectations, creating a puzzling market reaction. The 10-year inflation expectation stalled near 230 basis points even as front-end yields sold off sharply. This suggests markets view energy price spikes as a consumer tax that drags economic growth rather than fuel for sustained inflation, yet the Fed is priced for fewer cuts anyway. Challenger job cuts data showed U.S. employers announced 48,307 layoffs in February, down 55% from January's 108,435 cuts. Through February, employers announced 156,742 job cuts—the lowest January-to-February total since 2022. Morgan Stanley announced layoffs of 3% of its workforce as financial sector consolidation continues amid margin pressure. The yield curve continued its flattening trend for the 13th time in the last 15 sessions. This persistent flattening typically signals recession concerns, yet unemployment remains near historic lows. The disconnect between curve positioning and labor market strength creates uncertainty about whether mortgage rates will finally decline or remain elevated through 2026. Locking vs Floating Volatility risk remains much higher than normal amid geopolitical uncertainty and Friday's jobs report. Only the most risk-tolerant clients should consider floating based on Tuesday's brief support. Everyone else is waiting for firmer evidence that the bleeding has stopped before making rate commitments. Today's Events Challenger layoffs (Feb): 48,307K vs 108,435K prev Continued Claims (Feb 21): 1,868K vs 1,850K forecast, 1,833K prev Import prices (Jan): 0.2% vs 0.2% forecast, 0.1% prev Jobless Claims (Feb 28): 213K vs 215K forecast, 212K prev Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.78 | -0.19 | | 5.5 | 101.28 | -0.09 | | 5.0 | 99.97 | -0.11 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.596 | 99.816 | 0.049 | | 3 yr | 3.612 | 99.686 | 0.054 | | 5 yr | 3.738 | 100.056 | 0.045 | | 7 yr | 3.929 | 100.43 | 0.057 | | 10 yr | 4.141 | 98.853 | 0.041 | | 30 yr | 4.75 | 98.015 | 0.018 | Market Data

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