Well That Makes Sense – WTMS Well That Makes Sense

“Damn, there is so much great knowledge out there. Did you know that “BOOKS” are full of smart?? No, I mean like life changing, I-wish-I-knew-that-years-ago type stuff.

I know that I was waaaayyy late to the game figuring it out. And I know that a lot of you are too busy to read as much as you ‘should’. And that is why you need me.

I still remember how it started for me. It started in June of 2008. After 11 years …..Click to continue

Mortgage Today (PM) - 05/05/26

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May 5, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 05/05/2026 Bonds staged a modest recovery today as oil prices stabilized and economic data came in near expectations, but mortgage-backed securities gained less than one-third of yesterday's losses, signaling caution among traders. UMBS 5.0 coupons climbed just 0.14 points, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell only 1.9 basis points to 4.419%, leaving rates vulnerable to renewed selling pressure. The market's tepid response despite favorable data suggests investors are braced for continued volatility, especially with Middle East tensions keeping commodity markets elevated. New home sales surprised to the upside at 682,000 units versus a 650,000 forecast, the strongest signal from today's economic print that housing demand remains intact even at current rate levels. ISM services employment jumped to 48.0 from 45.2, and business activity held steady at 55.9, both reflecting a labor market that shows life despite recent Fed warnings about rate hikes. The trade deficit narrowed to -60.30 billion versus expectations of -60.9 billion, a small win for the administration's trade policy narrative. These benign prints should have helped bonds more, but they didn't, underscoring the reality that rates are now driven more by inflation fears and Fed policy than traditional economic calendars. The bigger story is what's brewing at the Federal Reserve: Neel Kashkari's recent commentary on potential rate hikes has sent Fed Funds futures markets scrambling, with December contract pricing now showing a nearly 30% chance of tightening and only a 6% chance of a cut this year. That shift from accommodative expectations to hawkish repricing happened fast and explains why bond traders are gun-shy despite solid economic momentum. For mortgage originators, this signals that rate locks should be treated as a precious commodity because the window to offer certainty to borrowers is narrowing. The UWM-Two Harbors deal fight continues to escalate in public, with both companies now making their case directly to shareholders as the May 19 vote approaches. UWM is defending its $12 bid by attacking the board's math and process, positioning its offer as offering more value and flexibility, while Two Harbors leans on execution certainty. This fight moving into public shareholder warfare means the outcome is increasingly unpredictable, and industry consolidation—which affects secondary market pricing—now hinges on voter sentiment rather than boardroom negotiation. **Locking vs Floating** Bonds recovered modestly but trails yesterday's selloff by a wide margin, creating asymmetric risk in favor of locking rates. For borrowers with rate certainty in hand, this is a stabilization window to move loans to underwriting before the next leg of volatility hits. Those still shopping should lock now given the Fed's emerging hawkish tilt—improvement is possible but far from guaranteed, and the tail risks are clearly pointed higher. **Today's Events** Trade Gap (Mar): -60.30B vs -60.9B forecast, -57.3B previous S&P Global Services PMI (Apr): 51.0 vs 51.3 forecast, 49.8 previous ISM Business Activity (Apr): 55.9 vs forecast unavailable, 53.9 previous ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr): 53.6 vs 53.7 forecast, 54.0 previous ISM Services Employment (Apr): 48.0 vs forecast unavailable, 45.2 previous ISM Services New Orders (Apr): 53.5 vs forecast unavailable, 60.6 previous ISM Services Prices (Apr): 70.7 vs 70.7 forecast, 70.7 previous New Home Sales (Mar): 682K vs 650K forecast, 587K previous USA JOLTS Job Openings (Mar): 6.866M vs 6.84M forecast, 6.882M previous **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2yr | 3.942 | 99.873 | -0.004 | | 3yr | 3.97 | 98.683 | -0.001 | | 5yr | 4.078 | 99.09 | -0.001 | | 7yr | 4.25 | 99.999 | -0.003 | | 10yr | 4.425 | 97.6 | -0.008 | | 30yr | 4.987 | 96.332 | -0.028 | Market Data

Mortgage Today (AM) - 05/05/26

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May 5, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 05/05/2026 Bond markets are getting hammered on the heels of escalation headlines that have spooked investors globally. The 10-year Treasury jumped to 4.42%, exceeding the key technical ceiling of 4.37% that traders have been watching closely. Until a sweeping peace agreement materializes, mortgage professionals should adopt a defensive strategy and closely monitor intraday MBS price movements. UMBS 5.0 coupons gained 14 basis points while GNMA 5.0s stayed relatively stable at plus 13 basis points. Across the curve, Treasury yields have risen sharply with 2-year yields moving to 3.923%. Manufacturing data delivered mixed signals for the economy this morning, with employment weaker than expected while pricing pressures accelerated significantly. ISM Manufacturing Employment posted 46.4 against a forecast of 49.0, signaling softening job demand in the industrial sector. However, ISM Prices Paid surged to 84.6, well above the consensus forecast of 80.0, indicating mounting inflationary pressures. The ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.7, matching the prior month and meeting consensus expectations. This divergence between weak employment and strong pricing suggests stagflationary headwinds that could pressure mortgage prices further. MBS prices showed modest intraday gains despite the broader Treasury market weakness, with UMBS and GNMA coupons trading slightly higher. The 5.5 coupon across both UMBS and GNMA remained relatively flat to slightly positive on the session. Longer coupons in the 6.0 range posted minimal gains, suggesting market participants are cautious ahead of potential additional geopolitical developments. Duration risk remains elevated, and basis risks between MBS and Treasury futures continue to widen. Mortgage originators should monitor these spreads carefully as they directly impact secondary marketing profitability. The yield curve remains inverted at the front end, with 2-year Treasuries yielding 3.923% and the 10-year at 4.42%. This inversion reflects recession fears and flight-to-quality dynamics that tend to pressure mortgage origination volumes. The 30-year Treasury is trading at 5.007%, providing a ceiling for conventional conforming rates. Hedging costs for pipeline management have become more volatile given the geopolitical uncertainty. Lenders should reassess their rate lock strategies and consider tightening product pricing. **Locking vs Floating** Manufacturing employment fell significantly short of expectations, providing some technical justification for a more defensive stance among originators. However, surging prices paid data suggests the Federal Reserve will remain vigilant about inflation control, limiting the potential for significant rate declines. Given yields have breached above the 4.37% technical level to 4.42%, mortgage professionals should favor longer-duration locks over floating positions. Until geopolitical tensions subside and a peace framework emerges, the risk-reward profile favors protecting against further yield expansion. Originators carrying short duration exposure face heightened mark-to-market losses if yields continue climbing. **Today's Events** ISM Manufacturing Employment (Apr): 46.4 vs 49 forecast, 48.7 previous ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr): 52.7 vs 53 forecast, 52.7 previous ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid (Apr): 84.6 vs 80 forecast, 78.3 previous **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.33 | 0.14 | | 5.5 | 100.35 | 0.10 | | 6.0 | 101.99 | 0.04 | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.06 | 0.13 | | 5.5 | 100.59 | 0.03 | | 6.0 | 101.81 | 0.07 | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.923 | 99.908 | -0.031 | | 3 yr | 3.948 | 98.744 | -0.031 | | 5 yr | 4.060 | 99.172 | -0.025 | | 7 yr | 4.240 | 100.062 | -0.013 | | 10 yr | 4.420 | 97.640 | -0.018 | | 30 yr | 5.007 | 96.033 | -0.008 |

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Mortgage Today (PM) - 05/04/26

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May 4, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 05/04/2026 War-related headlines hammered mortgage bonds as Iran escalated tensions in the Middle East, sending oil prices to their highest levels in weeks. The 10-year Treasury yield surged past critical technical levels, reaching 4.45% by late afternoon and closing the door on any hope for rate relief. UMBS 5.0 coupons fell nearly 0.57 points intraday, triggering negative reprices across multiple lenders and forcing mortgage originators into a defensive posture. Economic data offered little comfort, with ISM manufacturing employment missing estimates while input costs surprised sharply to the upside. The question for your pipeline is simple: do you lock in today's damage, or wait for a potential diplomatic breakthrough that might never come? Manufacturing employment fell to 46.4 versus a 49.0 forecast, signaling softening labor demand in the industrial sector. The ISM Manufacturing PMI barely held above 52.0, suggesting the economy is cooling but not collapsing. Most concerning for bond traders, the ISM Prices Paid index jumped to 84.6 against an 80.0 estimate, reinforcing inflation fears that keep yields elevated. These mixed signals leave the Fed watching closely heading into Friday's employment report. For originators, softer employment numbers argue for locking, while hotter input costs justify staying defensive on rates. Two Harbors rejected UWM's $12-per-share all-cash offer, defending CrossCountry Mortgage's $11.30 bid as delivering "certain value" versus UWM's "uncertain and conditional" proposal. The board cited structural risk in UWM's bridge financing from Mizuho Bank and questioned the company's capital position after three years of roughly $535 million annual cash drain. UWM reports earnings Wednesday, which could reshape the narrative if management addresses capital adequacy concerns. This servicing battle directly impacts warehouse funding costs and secondary market access for originators downstream. The May 19 shareholder vote will determine which leadership team controls nearly 10% of the nation's mortgage servicing portfolio. Barry Habib is exploring a strategic exit for Highway, his mortgage intelligence platform founded in 2012 and expanded through the acquisition of List Reports. The company boasts $2.63 million in monthly recurring revenue, $7 million in trailing 12-month EBITDA, and a near-zero churn rate among 26,000 loan officers at the top 20 lenders. Habib, who sits on Fannie Mae's board and is close to the Trump administration, has preliminary marketing materials circulating to prospective buyers. An investor would gain access to 1 million-plus customers, AI assistant Miles, and significant untapped monetization opportunities across agents and proprietary data. This sale signals consolidation pressure in the fintech and data-intelligence space as larger platforms seek scale. Nonbank servicers now control 66.7% of the agency mortgage servicing market, up from 64.6% one year ago, according to Q1 2026 data. Rocket Mortgage leads with 13.3% market share, followed by Lakeview at 9.8% and Pennymac at 7.1%, with the top 20 servicers managing 76.6% of all agency UPB. CrossCountry Mortgage gained the largest market share increase at 1.0 percentage point to 2.1%, while Wells Fargo declined 0.9 points to 4.0%. Bungalow Funding, SoFi, and AD Mortgage showed exceptional growth over the past 12 months, though from lower bases. For loan originators, this concentration reinforces the power of scale and highlights why servicing rights have become critical to competitive positioning. Lock now or risk another round of pain tomorrow, as Middle East tension and sticky inflation override any hope for near-term relief. The 10-year yield ceiling at 4.42% has been decisively broken, and yields are testing multi-week highs with no clear catalyst for reversal short of a major diplomatic breakthrough. Mortgage rates will likely reset negative before the week ends if MBS fall another few ticks, which is entirely possible given oil volatility and Friday's jobs report looming ahead. Your borrowers are losing rate-buy opportunity by the hour, and lender balance sheets are straining under mark-to-market losses. A defensive posture protecting your current pipeline is the rational play until geopolitical risk subsides or the employment report offers concrete relief. **Locking vs Floating** The technical setup shifted sharply today as yields broke above the key 4.42% ceiling that traders had been watching. Despite Friday's hopeful positioning, yields closed at multi-week highs with negative momentum that suggests further deterioration is likely. A peace agreement with Iran could reverse the tone instantly, but until then, borrowers and lenders should assume a defensive stance and lock rate locks rather than float, given the elevated downside risk in a widening Middle East conflict. **Today's Events** ISM Manufacturing Employment (Apr): 46.4 vs. 49.0 forecast (previous: 48.7) ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr): 52.7 vs. 53.0 forecast (previous: 52.7) ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid (Apr): 84.6 vs. 80.0 forecast (previous: 78.3) **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | Market Data

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