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Damn, there is so much great knowledge out there. Did you know that “BOOKS” are full of smart?? No, I mean like life changing, I-wish-I-knew-that-years-ago type stuff.

I know that I was waaaayyy late to the game figuring it out. And I know that a lot of you are too busy to read as much as you ‘should’. And that is why you need me.

I still remember how it started for me. It started in June of 2008. After 11  years …..Click to continue

Mortgage Today (AM) - 07/23/26 {{catlist}}
July 23, 2026
READ MORE **WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 07/23/2026** Oil prices surge past $90 a barrel as Houthi militants target Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, pushing Treasury yields to fresh yearly highs and MBS prices lower across the board. The 10-year yield climbed to 4.71 percent, extending the bearish trend that began after the Iran-war conflict in March. UMBS 5.5 coupons dropped 30 basis points to 99.03, while GNMA 5.5 coupons fell 24 basis points to 99.55. Longer-term yields remain above 5 percent on the 30-year as investors demand larger risk premiums for inflation concerns and expanding fiscal deficits. This morning's early jobless claims miss—187K versus 210K expected—provided little relief for bonds already under pressure from geopolitical uncertainty. Weekly initial jobless claims fell 22,000 to 187,000, beating economists' median estimate of 210K and suggesting labor market softness that typically favors bonds. However, the data had minimal impact on pricing as oil's rally dominated trading sentiment and technical levels broke to the downside across multiple Treasury maturities. The European Central Bank held rates steady but flagged inflation risks from the energy shock, lending credence to the idea that rates may stay higher for longer. Continued claims at 1.796 million show workers are gradually losing hours, though the four-week moving average at 207.50K remains elevated. Markets now price in nearly a 40-percent probability of a Fed rate hike next week despite persistent inflation only gradually moderating. Mortgage production rebounded sharply in the first half of 2026 with Agency MBS issuance up 28 percent year-over-year, driven primarily by refinance activity that has yet to dry up completely. However, higher mortgage rates following the Iran conflict are expected to slow prepayments and temper future issuance as fewer borrowers qualify for meaningful rate incentives. Agency supply is expected to stabilize at higher-than-prior-cycle levels rather than return to 2023 troughs, with every 25-basis-point rate increase estimated to reduce monthly mortgage production by roughly $10 billion. Lenders are watching pull-through metrics closely as pricing pressure mounts and execution quality becomes the key differentiator in competitive markets. The combination of higher rates and geopolitical uncertainty continues to weigh on both purchase and refinance activity. Risk-averse borrowers remain in a lock-biased stance, waiting for momentum to shift before adjusting hedging strategies despite broader negative sentiment in fixed-income markets. Risk-tolerant clients are running low on profitable lock triggers to execute, though some strategists see this positioning as setting up a near-term bounce opportunity. Intraday MBS pricing swings provide tactical guidance, but the bigger-picture trend remains bearish as 10-year Treasury yield ceilings and floors confirm sustained downward momentum in bond markets. Any major event-driven bounce would create short-term opportunities for rate-sensitive borrowers to lock, but such relief depends on oil prices stabilizing or geopolitical tensions easing. Until that changes, expect lock advisories to remain the dominant narrative among originators and warehouse lenders managing pipeline risk. The 2-year Treasury at 4.36 percent tells the slowest story of all: a gradual deterioration since March that accelerated today with fresh intraday highs across the short and intermediate curve. Traders raised Fed hike odds to nearly 40 percent despite jobless claims suggesting economic softness, highlighting the inflation-recession dilemma policymakers face heading into next week's meeting. Alphabet's massive capital spending increase spooked equity markets, but bond yields moved higher regardless, suggesting the inflation narrative is winning market attention right now. The Federal Reserve's communication blackout period combined with subdued summer trading volumes means technical positioning is exerting outsized influence on near-term price action. Supply remains light this week, with only a 10-year TIPS auction scheduled later today as the bond market waits for more concrete inflation signals. Originators capturing 25-basis-point execution lifts through mandatory hedging programs are funding growth and competitive pricing, a contrast to best-efforts shops seeing margin compression as rate aggregators commoditize the loan officer experience. Execution quality and real-time hedging advisory have become the primary levers for lenders to sustain production volumes as higher rates slow overall market activity. Correspondent lenders and non-QM specialists are focusing on execution consistency and turn-time predictability to differentiate as volume normalizes post-refinance surge. The industry continues consolidating with Union Home's acquisition of AmeriTrust targeting $20 billion in annual production, putting pressure on mid-sized independent lenders to prove their operational edge. Lenders investing in AI-powered workflows and sophisticated pricing engines are positioning themselves to compete in what remains a structurally slower production environment. **Locking vs Floating** Momentum remains broadly negative across the fixed-income complex, keeping risk-averse clients locked and waiting for a directional inflection before considering float strategies. Risk-tolerant borrowers face diminishing lock-trigger opportunities as yields push higher, making near-term tactical bounces increasingly valuable for capturing execution upside. The 10-year Treasury's sustained pressure below recent highs means overhead lock triggers are scarce, but bond market technicals suggest a mean-reversion bounce remains plausible given extreme positioning. Clients should monitor oil prices and geopolitical headlines closely—any stabilization could spark the event-driven relief that creates short-term locking opportunities. Until then, the bias remains lock for borrowers who can wait and tactical execution for those needing certainty now. **Today's Events** Thursday, July 23, 8:30 AM - July 18 Jobless Claims: 187K (versus 210K estimate) Thursday, July 23, 8:30 AM - July 11 Continued Claims: 1.796M Thursday, July 23, 8:15 AM - ECB Rate Decision (held steady; inflation risks flagged) Thursday, July 23, 1:00 PM - 10-Year TIPS Auction **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 96.57 | -0.37 | | 5.5 | 99.03 | -0.30 | | 6.0 | 101.13 | -0.21 | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 96.98 | -0.37 | | 5.5 | 99.55 | -0.24 | | 6.0 | 101.60 | -0.21 | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 4.36 | 99.555 | 0.056 | | 3 yr | 4.399 | 99.238 | 0.058 | | 5 yr | 4.465 | 98.491 | 0.056 | | 7 yr | 4.584 | 98.018 | 0.058 | | 10 yr | 4.711 | 97.349 | 0.047 | | 30 yr | 5.186 | 97.18 | 0.037 | Market Data
The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act: Your Guide to the Law That Tried to Save Housing (But Probably Won't) {{catlist}}
July 23, 2026
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The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act: Your Guide to the Law That Tried to Save Housing (But Probably Won't)

Congress just passed a housing bill that's like putting a Band-Aid on a broken leg—well-intentioned, bipartisan, and probably not going to fix what's actually broken

On July 11, 2026, something miraculous happened in Washington D.C.: Congress actually passed a housing bill. I know, I know—I'm as shocked as you are.   The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act became law without President Trump's signature (he literally just let it sit on his desk until it became law automatically, which is perhaps the most 2026 thing imaginable). This bipartisan legislation promises to tackle the housing crisis by limiting corporate investment in single-family homes, reducing regulatory barriers, and encouraging (not dictating or directing) local governments to rethink their zoning obsessions. Sounds great, right? Well, grab your coffee and settle in, because we need to talk about what this thing actually does—and more importantly, what it probably won't do.

What the ROAD Act Actually Does: The Cliff Notes Version

Let's start with the basics. Here's what this legislation brings to the table: The Big Headline: Institutional investors who own more than 30 single-family rental homes will face restrictions on purchasing additional properties. That's right—if you're a mega-fund with a portfolio that looks like Monopoly on steroids, Congress is trying to pump the brakes on your shopping spree. Zoning Reform Incentives: The bill dangles federal dollars in front of local governments to encourage them to loosen up their zoning restrictions. Think of it as the federal government saying, "Hey, maybe you don't need to require half-acre lots for every single house?" It's not mandatory—it's more like a gentle suggestion with money attached. Manufactured Housing Wins: Section 901 includes significant cost savings for manufactured housing, making it easier and cheaper to produce. This is actually one of the bill's stronger provisions, addressing a housing segment that's been strangled by outdated regulations for decades. Regulatory Barrier Reduction: Various provisions aim to streamline the development process and reduce the Byzantine maze of regulations that make building new housing about as fun as doing your taxes while getting a root canal. The legislation emerged after months of congressional ping-pong, with the final version significantly watered down from the original proposal. The initial bill had much stricter restrictions on corporate investment, but by the time it reached the finish line, it had been through the legislative sausage-maker and came out looking considerably different.

The LLC Shuffle: How to Circumvent a Housing Law in Three Easy Steps

Now here's where things get interesting—and by interesting, I mean predictably frustrating. The ROAD Act's restrictions on large institutional investors have a glaring loophole you could drive a fleet of moving trucks through: the 30-property threshold. Imagine you're a massive investment firm with 500 single-family homes in your portfolio. Under the new law, you're restricted from buying more properties. What do you do? Simple: you create new LLCs. It's the corporate equivalent of playing musical chairs, except the music never stops and there are always enough chairs.
LLC's cost like $73 on incfile.
Here's how the LLC shuffle works: Instead of owning 500 homes under "Mega Investment Corp," you create seventeen different LLCs, each owning 29 homes. Suddenly, you're not a restricted large investor anymore—you're just seventeen small, totally-not-related-we-promise companies that all happen to have the same parent organization, the same management team, and coincidentally make decisions in perfect harmony. It's beautiful, really, in the way that watching someone exploit a loophole always carries a certain artistic quality. The bill's language doesn't include robust anti-circumvention provisions that would catch these corporate shell games. There's no requirement for beneficial ownership disclosure that would reveal when "Smith Properties LLC," "Jones Housing Group," and "Anderson Rental Homes" are all actually owned by the same private equity firm. It's like trying to stop water from flowing downhill by putting up a sign that says "Water, Please Stop." Smart investors are already having conversations with their attorneys about restructuring strategies. The playbook is simple: fragment your holdings across multiple entities, ensure each stays comfortably under the 30-home threshold, and continue business as usual. Some firms might even spin this as "increasing operational efficiency" or "improving local management structures." The press releases practically write themselves.

The Inconvenient Truth: Mom and Pop Own Most of the Rental Houses Anyway

Here's the part that really makes you wonder if Congress did their homework: the vast majority of single-family rental homes aren't owned by Wall Street behemoths at all. They're owned by individuals and small LLCs with fewer than 30 properties. According to industry data, approximately 70-80% of single-family rental homes are owned by individual investors or small operations with modest portfolios. Your neighbor who bought a couple of rental properties for retirement? That's the typical landlord in America, not BlackRock. The local contractor who gradually accumulated a dozen homes over twenty years? That's the norm, not the exception. Large institutional investors—the ones this bill ostensibly targets—only represent about 2-3% of the entire single-family rental market. Yes, they've grown rapidly in certain markets (looking at you, Sun Belt), and yes, their presence can significantly impact local housing dynamics. But addressing 2-3% of the market while leaving 97% completely untouched is like trying to lose weight by only eating salad on Tuesdays. The reality is that housing affordability is a multifaceted crisis driven by factors this bill barely touches: restrictive zoning that prevents density, NIMBYism that blocks new construction, building costs that have skyrocketed, labor shortages in construction, and a fundamental mismatch between where housing exists and where people want to live. Limiting large investors from buying more single-family homes might make for good headlines and satisfying political theater, but it's not going to make housing magically affordable for first-time buyers. The bill's zoning reform incentives are actually more promising than the investor restrictions, but they're optional. Local governments can simply decline the federal carrots if they decide that maintaining their single-family zoning is more important than affordable housing. And given how local politics work—where current homeowners vote in much higher numbers than aspiring homeowners—don't hold your breath for revolutionary zoning changes.

So What Does This Mean for Mortgage Professionals?

For those of us in the mortgage industry, the ROAD Act is unlikely to dramatically reshape our day-to-day reality. You'll still be originating loans for individual buyers competing in tight markets. You'll still be explaining to frustrated first-time buyers why they lost out on another property. And you'll still be watching investor clients—whether they own 3 homes or 29—continue to purchase rental properties. What might change is the structure of your investor clients' businesses. Expect to see more LLCs being formed, more complex ownership structures, and more questions about how the new regulations affect their purchasing strategies. You might also see a slight uptick in demand from smaller investors who see opportunity in staying under the regulatory threshold while larger players restructure. The manufactured housing provisions in Section 901 could open up new origination opportunities as that sector becomes more viable and affordable. If you haven't been paying attention to the manufactured housing market, now might be the time to start learning about it. The bottom line? The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act is a legislative achievement in the sense that Congress actually did something, which deserves at least a participation trophy. But it's unlikely to be the housing affordability silver bullet that the crisis demands. It's a step—a small, somewhat wobbly step—in a direction that might eventually lead somewhere useful. Or it might just lead to more creative corporate restructuring and a whole lot of new LLC filings. Welcome to housing policy in 2026, where the laws are made up and the loopholes apparently don't matter.  
Want to stay ahead of housing policy changes that actually matter (and the ones that just sound good on paper)? Subscribe to Well That Makes Sense at WellThatMakesSense.com for the mortgage industry insights that'll make you the smartest person at your next networking event. We promise to keep making sense of the nonsense—because someone has to.
Mortgage Today (AM) - 07/22/26 {{catlist}}
July 22, 2026
READ MORE **WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 07/22/2026** Momentum remains negative across bond markets as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.634 percent, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rather than economic data. Oil prices surged with Brent crude topping $95 per barrel after US airstrikes widened, lifting concerns that higher gasoline costs could reverse June's inflation gains and keep pressure on rates. UMBS and GNMA securities weakened in line with Treasury moves, with the 5.0 coupon UMBS dropping 0.13 points intraday. Mortgage applications data released this morning showed purchase activity rising 6 percent despite conforming rates hitting 6.69 percent, their highest level since August 2025. This resilience suggests borrowers remain committed to home purchases even as affordability pressures mount. Wall Street is reportedly negotiating early access to the president's social media feed, betting that advance notification of geopolitical posts could trigger market volatility and produce trading profits. This represents an unprecedented monetization of political communications, raising questions about market efficiency and fair access. Bond traders have largely tuned out the president's routine posts, though occasional geopolitical announcements still move the needle on rate volatility. For mortgage professionals, this signals that unexpected policy announcements could create sudden swings in lock-in opportunities for clients. Risk-averse borrowers locked loans yesterday; risk-tolerant clients are waiting for the next bounce to appear. Conventional condo lending faces major shifts after Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mandated reserve funding increases to 15 percent starting January 4, 2027. Associations using professional reserve studies must now follow the highest recommended allocation, with studies capped at three years old and baseline funding methods now prohibited. The agencies also retired the "Limited Review" streamlined process for most established condo projects effective August 3, 2026, forcing lenders into aggressive financial audits. These changes aim to reduce underfunded reserve risks, but borrowers in associations that cannot meet the new thresholds may lose conventional financing access, directly impacting home values. Loan originators should inform condo associations in their markets immediately about compliance timelines. AI continues reshaping mortgage operations at multiple levels, though industry experts warn that task automation alone does not transform lending economics. True efficiency requires eliminating entire job functions and roles rather than simply replacing old software with new systems that bolt on AI agents. Lenders claiming "AI-first" status while maintaining previous staffing levels are falling behind competitors who can prove cost reductions and unlimited capacity gains. Servicing platforms are also evolving to support "Bring Your Own Agents" compatibility, allowing servicers to integrate their preferred AI tools without vendor lock-in. For originators, this shift underscores the need for meaningful operational transformation, not incremental automation. MBS performance was dampened by broader Treasury weakness despite stable intraday moves, with higher-coupon securities still carrying meaningful extension and prepayment risk. The 5.5 coupon GNMA inched slightly higher (+0.01), but the 6.0 coupon GNMA fell 0.05 points as investors reassessed refinance risk in an elevated rate environment. Legacy low-coupon pools have moved so far out of the money that negative convexity has largely dissipated, leaving the broader MBS market with an unusually benign convexity profile that limits downside damage. However, pool composition remains critical since loans with note rates close to current mortgage rates can still refinance even when the broader coupon appears uneconomical. Investors facing a light economic calendar this week should prepare for volatility driven by geopolitics rather than traditional fundamental catalysts. Economic data releases remain sparse through the remainder of this week, with only crude oil inventories on today's agenda alongside a $13 billion 20-year Treasury bond auction. Employment sectors in mortgage remain active, with Logan Finance expanding account executive positions and Motto Mortgage recruiting loan originators nationwide for independently-owned offices.   **Locking vs Floating** Risk-averse clients should remain in a lock-biased stance given persistent negative momentum, as downside protection from rate rises outweighs the cost of waiting. Risk-tolerant clients are running out of viable lock triggers overhead and should consider that bond strategists expect a near-term technical bounce that could create short-term opportunities to lock or adjust positions. Intraday MBS price moves help traders manage tactical risk, but the broader 10-year Treasury ceiling-and-floor levels are more reliable indicators of momentum direction. **Today's Events** MBA mortgage applications data released at 8:30 AM EDT showed purchase applications up 6 percent week-over-week. Weekly crude oil inventories data scheduled for release. $13 billion 20-year Treasury bond auction at 1:00 PM EDT. **Bond Pricing** **UMBS 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 97.08 | -0.13 | | 5.5 | 99.44 | -0.07 | | 6.0 | 101.45 | -0.02 | **GNMA 30 yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | **Treasuries** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | **UMBS 30yr** | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | |---:|---:|---:| | 5.0 | 97.53 | -0.05 | | 5.5 | 99.91 | 0.01 | | 6.0 | 101.87 | -0.05 | **GNMA 30yr** | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | |---|---:|---:|---:| | 2 yr | 4.265 | 99.735 | -0.005 | | 3 yr | 4.306 | 99.495 | 0.002 | | 5 yr | 4.375 | 98.889 | 0.004 | | 7 yr | 4.498 | 98.522 | 0.007 | | 10 yr | 4.634 | 97.948 | 0.009 | | 30 yr | 5.138 | 97.9 | 0.007 | **Treasuries** Subscribe free to WTMS at WellThatMakesSense.com and get daily mortgage market insights delivered to your inbox. Market Data
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