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Mortgage Today (AM) - 11/12/26

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November 12, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 11/12/2026** Bonds are modestly weaker to start, with the 10-year Treasury hovering near 5.00 percent as front-end yields lead and long-end holds steadier. Tuesday’s hotter CPI print (core +0.3 percent m/m) and hawkish Fed chatter pushed markets to fully price a December hike. Oil volatility around Iran headlines remains a swing factor for rates. MBS are tracking the Treasury tone with slight morning weakness and mixed spreads. Today’s focus is jobless claims and the 30-year bond auction. In UMBS, last week’s rally delivered the strongest weekly excess returns since early August, led by 30-year 5.0–6.0 coupons and improving specified-pool appetite. Prepayments slowed again in October, and wide primary–secondary spreads mean rate sheets still lag the Treasury move. The modeled par mortgage rate is back near 7 percent as current coupons sit around the low-6s. After Tuesday’s CPI surprise, production coupons are giving back a bit this morning. Positioning remains light into year-end, amplifying intraday swings. Ginnie Mae’s share of agency issuance continues to climb, hitting about 42 percent year-to-date and 47 percent in October as more borrowers funnel through FHA/VA. Slower speeds and higher delinquency profiles versus GSE cohorts keep GNMA spreads a touch wider, but seasoned and certain spec stories still screen attractive. With refinance incentives scarce, shorter-duration 15s and 20s keep shrinking while 30-year GNMA origination dominates. Expect issuers to lean on coupon up-in-quality stories amid rate volatility. Liquidity is thinner, but depth improves on rallies. Rates trade the macro: CPI beat, a fully priced December hike, and a curve that flattens on front-end repricing. Markets are watching today’s 30-year auction after mixed 3s and 10s, with bidders sensitive to supply at these yield levels. Oil’s bounce on “no deal needed” comments keeps energy/inflation risk in the mix. Fed speakers stay hawkish-biased, reinforcing a data-dependent path into year-end. Big picture: long-end yields are capped by risk aversion, while the front-end reflects a stickier Fed path. On the ground, mortgage demand improved week-over-week (+6.2 percent), but purchase apps remain 18 percent below last year and refis 57 percent lower. ARM usage keeps rising (roughly mid‑teens share) as buyers hunt payment relief, while HELOCs gain momentum and could overtake non-QM growth into 2027. Credit remains tight; CFPB supervision has eased, but Reg Z/X rule reviews are underway. Credit-score modernization is messy near-term: Vantage 4.0 and FICO 10T may benefit some borrowers, yet investor acceptance, pricing, and “lowest score” rules can introduce execution risk. Housing liquidity is thin: contract signings hit a record October low, new listings fell sharply, and asking prices edged lower as inventory nudged higher. Veteran affordability is strained despite VA benefits, aligning with broader cost pressures from taxes, insurance, and utilities. FEMA mapping and data gaps complicate risk pricing in several Sun Belt markets. Builders rely more on buydowns and incentives to offset rates, but buyer traffic remains rate-level sensitive. Affordability, not weekly rate blips, is still the gating factor for volumes. **Locking vs Floating** Momentum is fragile after CPI, and headline risk around oil and Fed rhetoric can flip intraday bias quickly. With the curve flatter and front-end repricing hawkishly, lenders should expect choppy, range-bound MBS, and be ready for negative reprices on weak auction outcomes. Short-term rallies remain vulnerable without softer inflation or weaker growth data. Float only with cushion and rapid lock triggers; otherwise favor tactical locking on strength, especially for near-term closings. Don’t be complacent: the recent bond rally has covered a lot of ground and can stall without fresh disinflation signals. **Today's Events** Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims this morning. U.S. Treasury auctions $25 billion in 30-year bonds at 1:00 p.m. ET. Fed speakers: Richmond’s Barkin and Dallas’ Logan. Subscribe free at WellThatMakesSense.com for daily mortgage intel in 90 seconds.

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Mortgage Today (PM) - 11/11/26

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November 11, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 11/11/2026** Hotter CPI slammed bonds Tuesday, delivering the biggest selloff since September and knocking UMBS prices sharply lower while pushing yields higher. UMBS 6.0 fell roughly 5/8ths and the 10-year Treasury jumped about 10 bps to near 4.98%. There weren’t any “yeah, but” nuances in the report—core ran hot and Fed-dated pricing shifted toward more tightening risk. Shorter maturities led the weakness, but the damage reached the long end and mortgages. With markets closed today for Veterans Day, Thursday becomes the first test of whether rates can stabilize. The selloff interrupts a two‑week rally that had been fueled by tech/AI credit jitters and falling oil, which drove safe‑haven bids into Treasuries and MBS. Earlier this week, “neocloud” weakness lined up well with bond gains, helping nudge rates to the best levels in a month. Even so, bonds had already been reluctant to extend the rally as stocks bounced and oil wobbled. CPI now puts the burden back on data and tech sentiment to keep rates improving. Without fresh fuel, the friendly trend is at risk. Ginnie Mae performance echoed conventionals, with GNMA 6.0 down about 0.59 on CPI day after catching a bid during last week’s equity slide. Spreads versus Treasuries have been choppy as mortgage convexity and rate‑lock flows amplify swings. The good news: despite CPI, mortgages didn’t underperform disastrously versus the long end. The bad news: renewed volatility can widen spreads and dent primary rate improvements. Watch how MBS track the 10‑year on the next risk‑off day. Technically, the 10‑year has been oscillating between support near 4.82–4.88 and resistance at 4.93–5.00–5.07. Tuesday’s break back above 4.93 and toward 5.00 argues for caution until yields convincingly reenter the lower zone. Near‑term direction likely hinges on whether tech jitters re‑intensify and oil remains subdued. A decisive move back below 4.93 would reopen the door to October’s gains. A sustained hold above 5.00 would keep sellers in control. On the origination front, margins and volume remain tight, pushing lenders to compete on pricing and process. UWM swung to a profit with cost cuts and MSR tactics, and it’s dangling a 40 bps incentive tied to broker tech adoption, while Rocket’s Quick Counter aims to help brokers salvage refis against rival offers. Retention is the pressure point: ICE says servicers kept only 27% of refi borrowers, with cash‑outs driving most runoff. Translation: cash‑out equity taps are up for grabs if you get there first. Demand remains soft even after a modest rate pullback before CPI. MBA reported applications slipping again, and Zillow says typical payments are up 12.8% year over year despite flat home prices, keeping affordability strained. Inventory is improving and leverage is shifting toward buyers, but not enough to spark a sales rebound yet. ARMs are inching higher as payment relief becomes paramount, and VA remains an underused channel with meaningful room for growth. Expect “price versus payment” to dominate borrower decisions into year‑end. **Locking vs Floating** The CPI surprise puts the recent rally on notice, with rates vulnerable if yields hold above 4.93–5.00% on the 10‑year. Risk‑tolerant borrowers can float only if tech/AI credit jitters re‑accelerate or data cools; otherwise, use intraday strength to lock. Holiday closures can exaggerate swings, so be mindful of headline‑driven gaps. For tactical triggers, treat 4.93% and 5.00% as lock thresholds and 4.88%/4.82% as floors that would need reclaiming to restore momentum. Until new, bond‑friendly catalysts appear, the bias tilts defensive. Subscribe free for daily briefs at WellThatMakesSense.com.

Market Data

Mortgage Today (AM) - 11/11/26

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November 11, 2026

**WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 11/11/2026** Bonds are catching their breath after Tuesday’s hotter CPI (+0.4% headline, +0.3% core) revived rate-hike odds and pushed the 10-year back toward 5.00%. UMBS prices slipped on the print, with production coupons lagging Treasuries as volatility picked up and liquidity thinned into the holiday. With the bond market closed today for Veterans Day, lenders should expect limited or static rate sheets until trading reopens. Near term, auction supply and Friday’s PPI will steer the next leg. Bigger picture, last week’s five-week rally bent but didn’t fully break. Ginnie Mae remains the growth engine: it’s 42% of agency issuance year-to-date and reached 47% in October as FHA/VA outpaced conventional. That tilt matters for pipelines and servicing, given slower seasonals, slightly higher delinquency sensitivity, and cash-flow timing. VA volume deserves a nod today: zero-down remains a powerful tool, even as affordability tightens. Prepay speeds softened again in October, reducing convexity risk but stretching MSR cash flows. Expect investors to keep favoring specified pools with cleaner VA/FHA attributes. The 10-year’s round-trip near 5.00% has been fueled by hawkish Fedspeak (Waller opened the door to a December move), hotter CPI, and soft auction demand. Real yields remain elevated, keeping mortgage spreads sticky even when Treasuries rally. Oil’s retreat helped briefly, but the inflation trend still rules the tape. Until core inflation convincingly cools, the market will fade rallies on strong data and thin liquidity days. Translation: volatility remains a feature, not a bug. Origination mix keeps shifting to where execution lives. ARM share climbed to 17%—the highest since 2019—as buyers trade rate for payment relief and future refinance optionality. HELOCs remain ascendant on record tappable equity, giving lenders a durable recapture lane while first-lien refi incentives stay scarce. Non-QM grows as product fit, but execution discipline is paramount; bid/ask and pool sale risk can erase thin gains. Credit-score modernization is here too: VantageScore 4.0 vs. FICO 10T choices carry pricing, hedging, and investor-acceptance implications. Housing demand remains rate sensitive: contract signings fell to a record-low October pace, even as inventory improved and asking prices edged down. Competitive pressures are shifting to cash-to-close, not just rate. That’s why programs like Zillow’s FHA down-payment assistance (forgiving second) matter—they change the math on borrower eligibility and lender win rates. Expect more lenders to pair buydowns, DPA, and ARMs to keep purchases moving through year-end. Execution and education will separate winners. Playbook for today: with markets closed, focus on file quality, pricing exceptions discipline, and Monday’s pipeline posture. For VA and FHA pipelines, recheck AUS after CPI and confirm MI/DPA math still appraises cleanly. For HELOCs, compress cycle time—speed is winning share. And prep talking points now for Friday’s PPI and next week’s refunding supply, when rate sheets will need quick lock decisions. **Locking vs Floating** Post-CPI, the path of least resistance is choppy and upward for yields, with rallies prone to fade on strong data or supply. If recent improvements meet borrower goals or price exceptions are stacking, bias to lock on strength rather than gambling into PPI and next week’s auctions. Floating only makes sense with tight triggers, clear milestones, and minimal fallout risk. Production coupons are underperforming on volatility—assume headline sensitivity remains high. In short: protect wins; don’t chase dimes into data. **Today's Events** - Veterans Day: U.S. bond markets closed; rates likely static until trading reopens - No major economic releases scheduled; next key data is Friday’s PPI and University of Michigan Sentiment Subscribe free at WellThatMakesSense.com to get this in your inbox each morning.

WTMS Video Summary

▶ Watch Today's Mortgage Market Recap