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Mortgage Today (AM) - 04/08/26

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April 8, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 04/08/2026 Treasury yields are dropping hard this morning as markets brace for Iran's response deadline tonight, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.236%, down 6.4 basis points from yesterday's close. The geopolitical uncertainty has sparked a flight to safety, pushing bond prices higher and creating favorable conditions for mortgage rates. UMBS securities are following suit with solid gains across all coupons, while GNMA bonds are posting similar strength. The market's calm demeanor in early April has given way to heightened volatility as traders position for either escalation or de-escalation from the Middle East tensions. This morning's pre-market action suggests Wednesday could deliver dramatically different trading conditions than we've seen recently. Economic data released this morning painted a mixed picture for the mortgage market, with February's Core Capital Expenditures jumping 0.6% versus the 0.4% forecast, signaling stronger business investment than expected. However, Durable Goods orders disappointed with a -1.4% decline against expectations for only a -0.5% drop, suggesting some softness in manufacturing demand. The ADP Employment Change Weekly came in at 26,000 new jobs, up from the prior week's 10,000 reading, though no forecast was available for comparison. These data points are creating cross-currents in the bond market, with the stronger CapEx data potentially weighing against the geopolitical rally. The net effect appears to favor lower yields as investors prioritize safety over economic strength signals. Mortgage bond pricing is showing significant strength across the board, with UMBS 5.0% coupons up 38 basis points to 99.38, while 5.5% coupons gained 27 basis points to 101.05. The 6.0% coupon UMBS securities posted more modest gains of 7 basis points, reaching 102.22. GNMA securities are tracking closely with UMBS, showing 20 basis points of improvement in 5.0% coupons and 21 basis points in 5.5% coupons. This broad-based rally in mortgage securities is creating opportunities for originators to offer more competitive rates to borrowers. The strength in both UMBS and GNMA markets suggests institutional investors are actively seeking yield in the mortgage-backed securities space. Fed balance sheet dynamics are taking center stage as current Fed nominee Warsh signals intentions to reduce the central bank's $6.7 trillion portfolio of Treasuries and MBS. The challenge lies in understanding the liabilities these assets offset, including $3 trillion in commercial bank deposits, $2.4 trillion in currency, and $1 trillion in the Treasury's checking account. Only bank deposits can realistically be reduced, which means carefully managing bank liquidity without disrupting financial markets. This potential policy shift could have significant implications for MBS demand and pricing in the months ahead. Mortgage originators should monitor how these discussions evolve, as any actual balance sheet reduction could affect funding costs and secondary market conditions. Treasury yield movements are providing crucial directional signals for mortgage pricing, with the entire yield curve showing strength from the 2-year note down to 3.744% to the 30-year bond at 4.848%. The 10-year Treasury's 5 basis point decline to 4.246% is particularly important for mortgage rate direction, as it often serves as a benchmark for longer-term lending rates. The yield curve flattening we're seeing today suggests investors are pricing in potential economic slowdown risks or extended geopolitical uncertainty. This environment typically favors mortgage origination volumes as borrowing costs become more attractive. The key question is whether this rally can sustain itself beyond the immediate geopolitical concerns. Market volatility is expected to intensify as we approach tonight's deadline for Iran's response, with options on the table for either a two-week extension or a ceasefire that could dramatically alter tomorrow's trading landscape. Bond traders are already positioning for significant moves in either direction, creating opportunities for both gains and losses in mortgage securities. The relatively calm trading we've experienced in early April appears to be ending, with Wednesday likely to bring much more active price discovery. Originators should prepare for potential rate volatility and consider their risk management strategies accordingly. The current rally in bonds provides a window of opportunity that may not persist if geopolitical tensions ease. Locking vs Floating The current environment favors a cautious approach to floating, given the heightened geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Iran's response deadline. While bonds are rallying today on safe-haven demand, the potential for dramatic reversals on Wednesday creates significant risk for borrowers waiting for further rate improvements. The mixed economic data provides some fundamental support for lower rates, but geopolitical events can override economic fundamentals quickly. Originators should consider the timing of their pipeline and the risk tolerance of their borrowers when making lock-versus-float recommendations. Today's Events ADP Employment Change Weekly: 26K vs no forecast, 10K previous Core CapEx (February): 0.6% vs 0.4% forecast, 0% previous Durable Goods (February): -1.4% vs -0.5% forecast, 0% previous Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.38 | 0.38 | | 5.5 | 101.05 | 0.27 | | 6.0 | 102.22 | 0.07 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.58 | 0.2 | | 5.5 | 101.02 | 0.21 | | 6.0 | 101.98 | 0.15 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.744 | 100.25 | -0.045 | | 3 yr | 3.763 | 99.26 | -0.086 | | 5 yr | 3.875 | 100.001 | -0.055 | | 7 yr | 4.055 | 101.176 | -0.053 | | 10 yr | 4.246 | 99.02 | -0.05 | | 30 yr | 4.848 | 98.456 | -0.024 |

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Mortgage Today (AM) - 04/07/26

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April 7, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 04/07/2026 Bond markets find themselves in a holiday-adjacent holding pattern as traders exercise caution ahead of potential geopolitical developments. March's significant rate spike appears to have cooled in early April, though volatility risks persist with ongoing tensions in Iran casting uncertainty over defensive momentum. The 10-year Treasury yield moved slightly higher to 4.343%, up 0.008 basis points from the previous close, signaling continued market hesitancy. Mortgage-backed securities showed mixed performance with UMBS 30-year coupons displaying minimal movement across the board. This sideways action reflects the market's wait-and-see approach as participants assess whether recent stabilization can maintain momentum. ISM services data delivered a mixed bag that reinforced the current cautious tone in fixed-income markets. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 54.0, missing the 55.0 forecast and declining from the previous 56.1 reading, suggesting some cooling in the services sector. However, the Services New Orders component jumped to 60.6 from 58.6, indicating underlying demand remains robust. Most concerning for bond traders was the Services Prices index, which surged to 70.7 from 63.0, well above expectations and signaling persistent inflationary pressures. Employment within services contracted sharply to 45.2 from 51.8, adding another layer of complexity to the economic narrative. UMBS pricing remained relatively stable with the 5.0 coupon trading at 98.81, down just 0.03, while the 5.5 coupon held at 100.64 with a modest 0.04 decline. The 6.0 coupon showed slight strength, gaining 0.02 to reach 102.14, suggesting some selective buying interest in higher coupons. This stability in mortgage securities reflects the current range-bound environment as originators navigate uncertain rate directions. The narrow price movements indicate that while there's no significant selling pressure, buyers remain cautious about committing to larger positions. GNMA securities mirrored the mixed UMBS performance with similarly modest intraday changes across coupons. The 5.0 GNMA coupon declined 0.06 to 99.22, showing slightly more weakness than its UMBS counterpart, while the 5.5 coupon gained 0.02 to reach 100.89. The 6.0 GNMA coupon pulled back 0.03 to 101.82, maintaining its typical discount to UMBS pricing. These government-backed securities continue to trade with their characteristic tight spreads to Treasuries, providing originators with reliable execution venues. The stability in GNMA pricing supports continued securitization activity for conforming loan production. Treasury yields across the curve showed the market's indecision with shorter maturities declining while longer dates edged higher. The 2-year note yield dropped 1.3 basis points to 3.843%, while the 5-year fell 0.7 basis points to 3.98%, suggesting some flight-to-quality buying in the front end. Conversely, the 30-year bond yield climbed 1.3 basis points to 4.903%, reflecting concerns about long-term inflation expectations following the hot ISM prices data. This yield curve steepening indicates that while near-term Fed policy expectations remain anchored, longer-term inflation concerns persist. Mortgage originators face a challenging environment where rate lock decisions require careful timing given the elevated volatility risks stemming from geopolitical tensions. The recent cooling of March's rate spike provides some relief, but the potential for renewed defensive momentum shifts keeps the outlook uncertain. With ISM services prices surging well above forecasts, any signs of broader inflationary pressure could quickly reverse recent bond market gains. Current pricing levels suggest that while there's no immediate pressure to rush lock decisions, the window for favorable conditions remains narrow and dependent on external factors beyond traditional economic data. Locking vs Floating Current market conditions favor a cautious approach to rate lock timing as volatility risks remain elevated due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in Iran. While March's significant rate spike has cooled in early April, the potential for defensive momentum shifts keeps the outlook uncertain for bond markets. The 10-year Treasury yield ceiling and floor levels continue to help track broader bond market momentum, though current sideways action suggests waiting for clearer directional signals. MBS pricing provides helpful intraday risk management, but originators should focus on the bigger picture Treasury movements for longer-term positioning decisions. Today's Events ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (March): 54.0 vs 55.0 forecast, 56.1 previous ISM Services Employment (March): 45.2 vs no forecast, 51.8 previous ISM Services New Orders (March): 60.6 vs no forecast, 58.6 previous ISM Services Prices (March): 70.7 vs no forecast, 63.0 previous Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.81 | -0.03 | | 5.5 | 100.64 | -0.04 | | 6.0 | 102.14 | 0.02 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.22 | -0.06 | | 5.5 | 100.89 | 0.02 | | 6.0 | 101.82 | -0.03 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.843 | 100.062 | -0.013 | | 3 yr | 3.869 | 98.963 | -0.011 | | 5 yr | 3.98 | 99.53 | -0.007 | | 7 yr | 4.158 | 100.553 | -0.009 | | 10 yr | 4.336 | 98.305 | 0.001 | | 30 yr | 4.903 | 97.603 | 0.013 |

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Mortgage Today (PM) - 04/07/26

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April 7, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 04/07/2026 Markets turned volatile Tuesday as geopolitical tensions over Iran's response deadline created wild swings throughout the trading session. MBS securities fell as much as a quarter point during mid-day weakness, with UMBS 5.0s dropping to session lows near 98.56 before recovering on late-day ceasefire optimism. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked to 4.364% at the weakest levels before settling back to 4.296% as Pakistan floated a potential two-week extension with ceasefire provisions. Oil prices initially surged on escalation fears but reversed sharply lower when diplomatic options emerged. The mortgage origination landscape shifted dramatically with new HMDA data revealing a split leadership between Rocket Mortgage and United Wholesale Mortgage in 2025. Rocket originated 429,332 loans for a 6.33% market share, edging out UWM's 422,120 loans and 6.25% share by volume count. However, UWM dominated in dollar volume with $164.32 billion compared to Rocket's $116.16 billion, highlighting divergent business strategies. Rocket's strength in smaller-balance, rate-sensitive transactions contrasts sharply with UWM's focus on higher-value purchase loans through the broker channel. Economic data painted a mixed picture of business investment and employment trends that could influence Federal Reserve policy decisions. Core capital expenditures jumped 0.6% in February, beating the 0.4% forecast and suggesting companies are moving forward with investment plans despite geopolitical uncertainty. However, durable goods orders fell 1.4%, largely driven by declining aircraft bookings as Boeing reported fewer February orders. The ADP Employment report showed 26,000 new jobs versus the prior month's 10,000, though no forecast was available for comparison. Credit costs continue pressuring mortgage originators as FICO tri-merge reports now cost around $540 per file, forcing lenders to make harder pipeline decisions earlier in the process. VantageScore is positioning its alternative scoring model as a solution for better pre-screening and reduced wasted credit pulls, particularly for first-time homebuyers. Industry veterans question whether lenders can adapt quickly enough to benefit from these tools, especially given the current focus on survival over innovation. The rising cost structure is forcing originators to choose between processing volume or protecting margins on each transaction. Finance of America faces legal challenges over an alleged March 20 ransomware attack, with a customer lawsuit filed in Texas federal court before any public breach disclosure. The Word Leaks group reportedly claimed responsibility for the cyberattack, potentially exposing Social Security numbers and personal data for thousands of customers. This follows a broader industry pattern where data breach lawsuits are filed before companies fully understand incident scope, though these cases typically settle rather than reach trial. The company has not reported the incident to state attorney general databases or provided public comment. Iran war dynamics continue driving unusual oil market behavior, with West Texas Intermediate trading at a $5 premium to Brent crude as Gulf shipping constraints boost domestic demand. This pricing inversion is expected to significantly impact Friday's inflation data, with March CPI forecasted to jump from 2.4% to 3.4% annualized. Core CPI is projected to rise from 2.5% to 2.7%, potentially complicating Federal Reserve policy discussions around future rate cuts. The geopolitical situation remains fluid, with Wednesday expected to bring either meaningful escalation or de-escalation based on Iran's response to diplomatic overtures. Locking vs Floating Markets remain highly volatile with geopolitical developments around Iran creating significant uncertainty for Wednesday trading. The deadline for Iran's response to diplomatic terms has passed, with potential outcomes ranging from major escalation to a two-week ceasefire extension. Given the extreme nature of possible market reactions, originators should expect larger than normal moves in either direction and plan accordingly for potential repricing risks. Today's Events ADP Employment Change Weekly: 26K vs -- forecast, 10K previous Core CapEx (February): 0.6% vs 0.4% forecast, 0% previous Durable goods (February): -1.4% vs -0.5% forecast, 0% previous Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99 | 0.16 | | 5.5 | 100.78 | 0.1 | | 6.0 | 102.15 | 0.02 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.38 | 0.11 | | 5.5 | 100.82 | -0.06 | | 6.0 | 101.83 | -0.02 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.789 | 100.165 | -0.059 | | 3 yr | 3.849 | 99.021 | -0.024 | | 5 yr | 3.93 | 99.754 | -0.054 | | 7 yr | 4.108 | 100.855 | -0.056 | | 10 yr | 4.296 | 98.622 | -0.039 | | 30 yr | 4.872 | 98.088 | -0.019 |

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