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Mortgage Today (AM) - 03/26/26

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March 26, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 03/26/2026 Iran Conflict Derails Bond Rally as Oil Surges Hopes for Middle East peace talks evaporated this morning as Iran rejected President Trump's ultimatum with just 48 hours remaining before the Saturday deadline. Oil prices exploded 5% higher to $107 per barrel, forcing bond yields sharply upward and crushing mortgage-backed securities pricing. Axios reports the Pentagon is preparing a "final blow" involving ground forces and massive bombing campaigns if shipping lanes remain blocked. Markets are pricing escalation risk as time runs out on diplomatic solutions. Mortgage Securities Under Pressure Across the Board UMBS 30-year 5.0 coupons fell to 98.22, down 23 basis points from yesterday's close, while GNMA securities posted similar losses. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.37%, up 42 basis points and threatening to breach the psychologically important 4.40% level. Secondary marketing desks are watching oil price movements more than economic data, as geopolitical risk trumps fundamentals. Margin compression intensifies for originators as rate sheet pricing deteriorates throughout the morning. Economic Data Takes Backseat to War Headlines Weekly jobless claims hit exactly the 210K forecast, with continuing claims dropping to 1.819 million, but markets barely reacted. Import prices surged 1.3% versus the 0.5% estimate, driven by energy costs that reflect supply chain disruption fears. The OECD raised inflation forecasts to 4% for major economies, up from December's 2.8% prediction. These inflationary pressures compound concerns that Federal Reserve rate cuts remain off the table for 2026. Memory Chip Stocks Extend AI Selloff Technology shares continued falling in premarket trading after Google announced breakthroughs that could reduce memory requirements for artificial intelligence applications. The broader market sentiment remains risk-off, with S&P 500 futures down 0.8% as investors flee to cash. BlackRock President Rob Kapito warned that markets may be underestimating the economic disruption from prolonged Middle East conflict. European markets led the decline with the Stoxx 600 snapping a three-day winning streak. Pipeline Hedging Strategies Under Review Mortgage originators face renewed volatility as rate lock pipelines become more difficult to hedge effectively. The correlation between oil prices and mortgage rates strengthens during geopolitical crises, forcing secondary teams to adjust hedging models. Lock/float recommendations increasingly favor defensive positioning given multi-month high yields and deteriorating MBS pricing. Industry analysts suggest maintaining shorter lock periods and conservative pricing until geopolitical clarity emerges. Weekend Deadline Creates Market Tension Financial markets will remain on edge through Friday's close as Trump's ultimatum expires Saturday morning. Any signs of Iranian flexibility toward negotiations could trigger rapid reversals in oil and bond markets. Conversely, escalation rhetoric or military positioning updates may push yields to new 2026 highs. Mortgage professionals should prepare for continued volatility and potential rate sheet revisions throughout the week. Locking vs Floating Current market conditions strongly favor defensive locking strategies despite yesterday's temporary bond rally. With 10-year yields at multi-month highs and geopolitical tensions escalating, the risk-reward equation tilts toward protecting existing rate locks. MBS prices remain vulnerable to further oil price surges and war-related volatility through the weekend deadline. Today's Events - 8:30 AM: Jobless Claims (Mar 21) - 210K vs 210K forecast - 1:00 PM: 7-Year Note Auction - $44 billion - Continued Claims (Mar 14) - 1,819K vs 1,850K forecast Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | |5.0 | 98.28 | -0.16 | |5.5 | 100.17 | -0.11 | |6.0 | 101.7 | -0.1 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | |5.0 | 98.71 | -0.13 | |5.5 | 100.28 | -0.09 | |6.0 | 101.41 | -0.08 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | |2 yr | 3.924 | 99.192 | 0.034 | |3 yr | 3.923 | 98.813 | 0.034 | |5 yr | 4.026 | 98.763 | 0.051 | |7 yr | 4.189 | 98.865 | 0.039 | |10 yr | 4.364 | 97.076 | 0.033 | |30 yr | 4.916 | 95.456 | 0.01 | Subscribe free to our daily market intelligence at WellThatMakesSense.com.

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Mortgage Today (PM) - 03/25/26

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March 25, 2026

# WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 03/25/2026 Rate Volatility Reaches Breaking Point Mortgage rates aren't just climbing anymore — they're whipsawing at speeds that strain the entire origination pipeline. Over the past few weeks, rates have swung dramatically within hours, creating uncertainty that kills more deals than high rates alone ever could. Borrowers can handle expensive money, but they can't navigate when pricing becomes unpredictable from one day to the next. This volatility is forcing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to step up their MBS buying programs, placing larger bids to stabilize the market. Even with GSE intervention, the wild swings show no signs of stopping. 10-Year Treasury Provides Rare Relief Today brought unexpected calm to an otherwise chaotic March, with the 10-year Treasury dropping 4.2 basis points to 4.323% amid lighter volatility. UMBS 5.0s gained 17 basis points to 98.50, while GNMA 5.0s jumped 17 points to 98.80, marking the strongest single-day performance in weeks. Import prices surged to 1.3% versus forecasts of 0.5%, but markets paradoxically strengthened despite the inflationary data. The disconnect suggests traders are more focused on Iran war de-escalation headlines than domestic economic indicators. This represents a potential turning point after weeks of multi-month yield highs. Iran War De-escalation Drives Bond Strength Wednesday's bond market rally stemmed from conflicting but ultimately positive headlines about Iran war negotiations, even as Iran publicly refuted U.S. claims of progress. Markets are betting that U.S. intentions to wind down the conflict matter more than verified agreements with Iran. If the U.S. wants to de-escalate, that outcome becomes reality regardless of Iranian public statements. This geopolitical shift provided the rare calm that mortgage markets desperately needed after weeks of persistent volatility. The narrowest trading range of March offered mortgage originators their first predictable pricing session in recent memory. HUD Targets Washington's Race-Based Down Payment Program Federal housing regulators are investigating Washington state's Covenant Homeownership Program, which offers zero-interest down payment assistance exclusively to borrowers whose ancestors are Black, Hispanic, Native American, Pacific Islander, or of Indian descent. HUD Secretary Turner called the program an illegal use of racial preferences that violates equal protection rights, noting that European, Japanese, Arab, or Jewish ancestry doesn't qualify applicants. The timing is particularly notable as it comes days after 16 state attorneys general sued HUD for allegedly forcing states to weaken their own housing discrimination protections. This investigation signals a broader federal pushback against race-conscious housing programs launched in recent years. FICO Pricing Practices Face Senate Scrutiny Sen. Josh Hawley is pushing the FTC to investigate FICO's credit score pricing, arguing the company's wholesale per-score price jumped from $0.60 to $10 over five years with 88% operating margins. FICO's planned 2026 price increase could add roughly $500 million in industry costs that ultimately get passed to borrowers. First-time buyers face the biggest impact since they often require multiple credit checks before closing. Hawley's investigation comes as mortgage originators already struggle with compressed margins and rising compliance costs. This scrutiny could reshape how credit scoring costs flow through the origination process. Lender News and Market Adjustments Brokers First Funding expanded its Non-QM super jumbo program to $5 million loan limits, offering increased flexibility for high-net-worth borrowers in tight credit markets. A California borrower sued United Wholesale Mortgage over allegedly unauthorized credit report pulls during early refinance inquiries, highlighting growing FCRA compliance risks. New data shows Latino homebuyers in California continue receiving disproportionately smaller shares of bank mortgage lending relative to their population size. These developments reflect an industry adapting to regulatory pressure while trying to serve underrepresented borrowers in volatile rate environments. Locking vs Floating Today's reduced volatility and bond strength represent a promising development, but yields remain near multi-month highs from yesterday afternoon. The improvement isn't significant enough to warrant abandoning defensive locking strategies given the persistent uncertainty. Originators should maintain cautious approaches until volatility patterns show sustained improvement over multiple sessions. Today's Events Import Prices: 1.3% vs 0.5% forecast, 0.6% previous Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.45 | 0.11 | | 5.5 | 100.29 | 0.1 | | 6.0 | 101.8 | 0.09 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.84 | 0.21 | | 5.5 | 100.37 | 0.13 | | 6.0 | 101.49 | 0.06 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.89 | 99.256 | -0.011 | | 3 yr | 3.89 | 98.907 | -0.016 | | 5 yr | 3.975 | 98.991 | -0.023 | | 7 yr | 4.15 | 99.1 | -0.034 | | 10 yr | 4.331 | 97.335 | -0.035 | | 30 yr | 4.907 | 95.603 | -0.024 |

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Mortgage Today (AM) - 03/24/26

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March 24, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 03/24/2026 Mortgage markets are proving the cynics right as the Iran ceasefire rebound has already died. UMBS 5.0 prices dropped to 98.03, down 36 basis points from yesterday's close. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.406%, completely erasing Monday morning's gains despite oil prices remaining lower. Labor costs came in much worse than expected at 4.4% versus the 3.5% forecast. This inflationary data is pushing investors toward the Federal Reserve potentially raising rates rather than cutting them. Futures markets now see nearly a 50% chance of a quarter-point rate hike by October. President Trump's signals about productive talks with Iran lost their market impact after Iran denied substantive discussions. The Wall Street Journal reports that Persian Gulf allies may join the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Tehran. Markets remain on "hyper alert" for the next geopolitical development. Construction spending disappointed at -0.2% versus the 0.1% forecast. This economic weakness contrasts sharply with the stubborn inflation readings from labor costs. The mixed signals are creating the choppy trading conditions we're seeing across bond markets today. Locking vs Floating Today's market action demonstrates extreme volatility tied to war developments and inflation concerns. Bonds showed proof of concept that Iran de-escalation can drive gains, but those moves reversed quickly. Analysts recommend remaining cautious and defensive until a clear trend of de-escalation emerges with sustained bond market response. Today's Events - Construction Spending: -0.2% vs 0.1% forecast - Labor Costs: 4.4% vs 3.5% forecast - ADP Employment Change: 4-week average increases to 10K - New Home Sales data expected Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.03 | -0.36 | | 5.5 | 100 | -0.23 | | 6.0 | 101.68 | -0.08 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 98.53 | -0.28 | | 5.5 | 100.17 | -0.15 | | 6.0 | 101.45 | -0.08 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.904 | 99.231 | 0.052 | | 5 yr | 4.027 | 98.755 | 0.056 | | 10 yr | 4.406 | 96.748 | 0.059 | | 30 yr | 4.966 | 94.717 | 0.045 | Subscribe free at WellThatMakesSense.com to get this in your inbox daily.

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