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What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 11/10/2025

Week In Review
November 10, 2025

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 11/10/2025 Mortgage bonds are under pressure today as optimism about resolving the government shutdown drives investors toward riskier assets. UMBS 5.0 coupons dropped 16 basis points as Treasury yields climbed across the curve. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 35 basis points to 4.13% after reports that Senate Democrats are breaking ranks to help Republicans move forward on a funding bill. Government shutdown resolution could trigger the release of delayed economic data, including potentially the October jobs report this week if Congress acts quickly. This flood of data releases would provide clarity on economic conditions but could also introduce new volatility as markets digest information that's been pent up for weeks. Loop Capital notes that September data originally scheduled for October release could come very rapidly once the shutdown ends. Trump administration officials are moving forward with plans for a 50-year fixed-rate mortgage option, according to FHFA Director Bill Pulte's social media announcement over the weekend. Pulte confirmed the administration is "working on The 50-year Mortgage" as a potential solution to housing affordability challenges. This proposal would extend mortgage terms beyond the current 30-year standard established during the New Deal era. The extended mortgage term would reduce monthly payments but significantly increase total interest costs over the life of the loan. For mortgage originators, this represents a potential new product offering, though industry experts question whether consumers would embrace paying off loans for half a century. Rob Chrisman notes that most Americans prefer to pay off mortgages sooner rather than later, questioning whether this follows successful models from other economies. Industry consolidation continues as NFM Lending acquires Homespire Mortgage, expanding its national footprint. Stewart Information Services is purchasing MCS's mortgage services division for $330 million, adding property preservation and inspection capabilities. Additionally, Opendoor and Roam have partnered to streamline assumable mortgage processes, helping buyers access low-rate FHA, VA, and USDA loans while addressing the "assumption gap" with second mortgage solutions. Curinos reports that October mortgage volume increased 16% month-over-month and 6% year-over-year, with average 30-year conforming rates at 6.29%. This represents a 21-basis-point decline from September but remains 11 basis points higher than October 2024. Prepayment speeds surged in October, with Fannie Mae 30-year speeds jumping 32% to 10.5 CPR as falling rates reignited refinance incentives. Locking vs Floating Bond markets have found their footing after mid-week losses but need fresh inspiration for yields to fall meaningfully. MBS prices help with intraday risk management, while 10-year yield levels provide guidance on bigger-picture momentum. Given today's government shutdown optimism and potential data releases this week, caution may be warranted for loans closing within the next few weeks. Today's Events No economic data scheduled Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.4 | -0.14 | | 5.5 | 100.92 | -0.11 | | 6.0 | 102.2 | -0.03 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.72 | 0.02 | | 5.5 | 100.81 | 0.05 | | 6.0 | 101.72 | 0.03 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.573 | 99.86 | 0.013 | | 3 yr | 3.582 | 99.77 | 0.01 | | 5 yr | 3.693 | 99.691 | 0.013 | | 7 yr | 3.882 | 99.961 | 0.011 | | 10 yr | 4.101 | 101.213 | 0.008 | | 30 yr | 4.703 | 100.76 | 0.005 |

What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 11/07/2025

Week In Review
November 7, 2025

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 11/07/2025 Bond markets opened with modest strength this morning as traders awaited University of Michigan consumer sentiment data. The 30-year UMBS 5.0 coupon traded down 5 basis points to 99.48 early in the session. Ten-year Treasury yields held near 4.09% after yesterday's strong rally backing out Wednesday's weakness. Thursday's data-driven rally provided clear evidence that the recent selling trend has found sufficient resistance to warrant a more neutral approach. If you were waiting for confirmation that bond markets had established a technical floor, yesterday's action delivered exactly that signal. The rally easily reversed Wednesday's losses and reinforced support at key yield levels around 4.16% on the 10-year Treasury. Fannie Mae this week implemented major changes to its Desktop Underwriter system, removing the traditional 620 minimum credit score requirement effective November 16th. This shift moves eligibility determinations to DU's internal risk analysis rather than relying on fixed score thresholds. The change opens doors for borrowers with thin or nontraditional credit files who previously couldn't qualify under conventional standards. A VantageScore analysis of over 600,000 renters shows millions could qualify for mortgages if on-time rent payments were included in credit files. Consumers with thin credit histories saw score improvements of up to 67 points when rental tradelines were added. Nearly all previously credit-invisible renters in the study reached scores above 620, averaging 654 points. Locking vs Floating Thursday's strong rally reinforced technical support levels that suggest the recent selling pressure has run its course for now. Consumer sentiment data missed forecasts at 50.3 versus 53.2 expected, while inflation expectations showed mixed results with one-year at 4.7% and five-year declining to 3.6%. MBS prices improved modestly into the close with lower-coupon securities outperforming higher ones as demand shifted toward safer bonds. Today's Events - Consumer Sentiment (Nov): 50.3 vs 53.2 forecast, 53.6 previous - Sentiment: 1y Inflation (Nov): 4.7% vs 4.6% previous - Sentiment: 5y Inflation (Nov): 3.6% vs 3.9% previous - U Mich conditions (Nov): 52.3 vs 59.2 forecast, 58.6 previous Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.55 | 0.02 | | 5.5 | 101.05 | 0 | | 6.0 | 102.22 | -0.05 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.74 | -0.01 | | 5.5 | 100.78 | -0.05 | | 6.0 | 101.78 | 0.03 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.551 | 99.902 | -0.006 | | 3 yr | 3.559 | 99.834 | -0.01 | | 5 yr | 3.674 | 99.777 | -0.008 | | 7 yr | 3.867 | 100.052 | -0.004 | | 10 yr | 4.089 | 101.312 | 0.004 | | 30 yr | 4.697 | 100.847 | 0.019 |

What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 11/06/2025

Week In Review
November 6, 2025

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 11/06/2025 Bond markets delivered a much-needed rally this afternoon after challenging economic data painted a mixed picture. UMBS securities gained approximately 27 ticks on the 5.0 coupon, providing relief to mortgage originators who've endured weeks of selling pressure. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped 65 basis points to 4.096%, marking the most significant intraday improvement in recent memory. ADP employment data exceeded expectations with 42,000 jobs added versus forecasts of 25,000. However, this strength was offset by concerning job cuts data from Challenger Gray & Christmas, which reported 153,000 layoffs in October—the highest monthly total in over two decades. The mixed employment signals created uncertainty that ultimately favored bond buyers. ISM Services data showed continued expansion with the PMI rising to 52.4 from 50.8. New Orders jumped dramatically to 56.2 from 51.0, while Services Prices climbed to 70.0 from 69.4. These inflationary pressures should normally hurt bonds, but the overwhelming focus remained on employment weakness. Federal Reserve speakers are scheduled throughout the trading session, including Williams, Barr, Hammack, and Waller. Their commentary on December rate cut prospects will be crucial given that trader expectations have increased to 60% from 50% following today's job cuts report. The Bank of England held rates steady but signaled December easing, adding to global dovish sentiment. Locking vs Floating Today's rally provides a temporary reprieve from the upward rate trend that began October 29th. While volatility remains elevated due to conflicting economic signals, even conservative clients might consider floating given the significant improvement in pricing. However, any rejection of this rally could quickly reverse gains, so monitor 10-year yield levels closely for confirmation of trend changes. The prevailing bias toward higher rates since late October hasn't been definitively broken despite today's gains. Risk-tolerant clients may benefit from this pricing improvement, but those with near-term closings should weigh the potential for renewed selling pressure. MBS prices help with intraday risk management, but 10-year yield ceiling and floor levels remain critical for tracking longer-term bond market momentum. Today's Events - ADP Employment: 42k vs 25k forecast, -32k previous - ISM Business Activity: 54.3 vs 49.9 previous - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: 52.4 vs 50.8 forecast, 50.0 previous - ISM Services Employment: 48.2 vs 47.6 forecast, 47.2 previous - ISM Services New Orders: 56.2 vs 51.0 forecast, 50.4 previous - ISM Services Prices: 70.0 vs 68.0 forecast, 69.4 previous Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.59 | 0.31 | | 5.5 | 101.08 | 0.16 | | 6.0 | 102.27 | 0.06 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.76 | 0.25 | | 5.5 | 100.87 | 0.12 | | 6.0 | 101.76 | 0.07 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.574 | 99.858 | -0.06 | | 3 yr | 3.585 | 99.761 | -0.063 | | 5 yr | 3.696 | 99.677 | -0.069 | | 7 yr | 3.882 | 99.958 | -0.069 | | 10 yr | 4.096 | 101.252 | -0.065 | | 30 yr | 4.691 | 100.94 | -0.049 |

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