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What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 01/09/2026

Money
January 9, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 01/09/2026 MBS markets exploded higher this morning after Trump announced his plan to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds. The president instructed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase these securities using their cash reserves to drive down mortgage rates and monthly payments. This parallels the Federal Reserve's massive bond-buying program during the pandemic that pushed rates to historic lows. Meanwhile, this morning's jobs report came in relatively tame with mixed results. Nonfarm payrolls added just 50,000 jobs versus the 60,000 forecast, while unemployment dropped to 4.4% from the expected 4.5%. Labor force participation also declined to 62.4%, which somewhat diminishes the positive impact of the lower unemployment rate. MBS prices surged over half a point initially but have since cooled as traders regained their composure. The 30-year UMBS 5.0 coupon is currently up about 27 basis points, while Treasury yields remain relatively unchanged. This dramatic outperformance of mortgage bonds versus Treasuries is directly attributable to Trump's bond purchase announcement. Locking vs Floating Friday's jobs report typically carries significant volatility potential for bond markets, though this one threaded the needle without major directional movement. However, MBS experienced massive swings throughout the morning due to Trump's mortgage bond buying headlines. While mortgage-backed securities continue to outperform Treasuries significantly, they've dropped from their morning highs as cooler heads prevailed. Today's Events - Non Farm Payrolls (Dec): 50K vs 60K forecast, 64K previous - Participation Rate (Dec): 62.4% vs 62.5% previous - Unemployment rate (Dec): 4.4% vs 4.5% forecast, 4.6% previous Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 100.39 | 0.27 | | 5.5 | 101.73 | 0.11 | | 6.0 | 102.78 | -0.03 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 100.25 | 0.28 | | 5.5 | 101.16 | 0.05 | | 6.0 | 102 | -0.03 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.513 | 99.974 | 0.027 | | 3 yr | 3.572 | 99.796 | 0.026 | | 5 yr | 3.747 | 99.451 | 0.021 | | 7 yr | 3.955 | 98.757 | 0.021 | | 10 yr | 4.18 | 98.54 | 0.008 | | 30 yr | 4.846 | 96.521 | 0.009 |

What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 01/08/2026

Week In Review
January 8, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (PM) - 01/08/2026 European markets dragged U.S. bonds lower overnight, setting the stage for a challenging day. The morning's jobless claims data failed to provide any relief, with bonds continuing to sell off across the Atlantic. MBS prices fell an eighth of a point while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed 2.6 basis points to 4.181%. Trump's announcement about increasing military spending by $500 billion in 2027 sent defense stocks higher but added pressure to bonds. The Treasury curve experienced bear steepening, with longer-term yields rising more than shorter ones. This steepening pattern typically signals investor concerns about future inflation and government spending. December prepayment speeds rose 5% from November and jumped 49% year-over-year, indicating a gradual refinancing recovery. However, mortgage lock volume declined nearly 19% month-over-month according to MCT's latest data. Winter seasonality combined with government shutdown uncertainty kept borrowers cautious about major financial decisions. The trade deficit narrowed dramatically to $29.4 billion in October, well below the $58.7 billion consensus forecast. This unexpected improvement reflected sharp declines in imports, particularly pharmaceutical preparations and gold. Productivity data showed a robust 4.9% quarterly increase, the largest jump since 2020. Locking vs Floating With rates at two-month lows but showing weakness, risk-averse clients should remain in lock mode. Wednesday's economic data failed to inspire volatility, leaving Friday's jobs report as the week's main market mover. Current market conditions favor protecting existing rate commitments rather than gambling on further improvements. Today's Events Challenger layoffs (Dec): 35.553K vs 71.321K previous Continued Claims (Dec 27): 1,914K vs 1,900K forecast, 1,866K previous Jobless Claims (Jan 3): 208K vs 210K forecast, 199K previous Trade Gap (Oct): -$29.40B vs -$58.9B forecast, -$52.8B previous Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.73 | -0.11 | | 5.5 | 101.42 | -0.08 | | 6.0 | 102.69 | -0.03 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.78 | -0.1 | | 5.5 | 101.08 | -0.03 | | 6.0 | 102.16 | 0 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.486 | 100.027 | 0.015 | | 3 yr | 3.549 | 99.862 | 0.022 | | 5 yr | 3.729 | 99.53 | 0.025 | | 7 yr | 3.94 | 98.847 | 0.028 | | 10 yr | 4.177 | 98.568 | 0.022 | | 30 yr | 4.855 | 96.38 | 0.027 |

What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 01/08/2026

Week In Review
January 8, 2026

WTMS Blog Today = What's up in Mortgage Today (AM) - 01/08/2026 European bond markets dragged U.S. bonds lower overnight in a synchronized selling session. Both markets experienced a 3 basis point selloff before American trading hours began. This cross-Atlantic weakness set a challenging tone for domestic mortgage markets. The 8:30 AM economic data failed to provide any relief from the morning's pressure. Jobless claims came in slightly better than expected at 208,000 versus 210,000 forecasted, but this minor positive was quickly overwhelmed by broader market sentiment. The December Challenger layoffs report showed significant improvement, dropping to 35,553 from 71,321 the previous month. UMBS pricing declined across all major coupons as spreads widened relative to Treasury benchmarks. The 5.0 coupon fell 11 basis points while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed 22 basis points to 4.177%. This divergence highlights the ongoing pressure mortgage-backed securities face in the current environment. Trump's announcement regarding potential military spending increases of $500 billion for 2027 added to market uncertainty. Defense stocks rallied on the news while Treasury yields continued their upward trajectory. The bear steepening pattern suggests investors are preparing for higher long-term rates and increased government borrowing. Locking vs Floating With rates sitting at 2-month lows, risk-averse clients should remain in lock mode. Wednesday's economic data failed to inspire significant volatility, making Friday's jobs report the week's last major market-moving event. The current environment favors protecting gains rather than gambling on further improvements. MBS spreads continue widening despite stable Treasury movements, creating additional headwinds for mortgage pricing. Risk management suggests maintaining defensive positioning until clearer directional signals emerge from economic data. Today's Events Challenger layoffs (Dec): 35.553K vs 71.321K previous Continued Claims (Dec 27): 1,914K vs 1900K forecast, 1866K previous Jobless Claims (Jan 3): 208K vs 210K forecast, 199K previous Trade Gap (Oct): -29.40B vs $-58.9B forecast, $-52.8B previous Bond Pricing UMBS 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.73 | -0.11 | | 5.5 | 101.42 | -0.08 | | 6.0 | 102.69 | -0.03 | GNMA 30 yr | Coupon | Price | Intra-Day Change | | 5.0 | 99.78 | -0.1 | | 5.5 | 101.08 | -0.03 | | 6.0 | 102.16 | 0 | Treasuries | Term | Yield | Price | Intra-Day Yield Change | | 2 yr | 3.486 | 100.027 | 0.015 | | 3 yr | 3.549 | 99.862 | 0.022 | | 5 yr | 3.729 | 99.53 | 0.025 | | 7 yr | 3.94 | 98.847 | 0.028 | | 10 yr | 4.177 | 98.568 | 0.022 | | 30 yr | 4.855 | 96.38 | 0.027 |

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